Kevin Cox' Selections And Analysis
Big day for us here yesterday, with the following:
--Three winners of $84, $7 & $5
--A $1,342 Rolling Pick Five
--A $1,372 Rolling Pick Four
--Three Rolling Pick Threes of $284, $74 & $52
--A $160 Ice Cold Double
--A $24 Cold Exacta
--A $9 Quinella
--2 for 2 in our "Beatable Favorites" categor
--...and we cold deck a $42 Triple as well.
We now have a flat bet profit for the meet, with three days remaining.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #3 Login Required
Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1.
I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
Race 1 | 1st -Dark Devil | 2nd -Get it to Matthew | 3rd -Have You Heard |
We don't really have the best of reads on today's opener, so tread lightly. #2 DARK DEVIL gets his working papers this afternoon, and $52,000 auction purchase is available for a bit more than that here, so we like the confidence shown. 343 Tomlinson figure is honest enough, and there's a decent gate move on the docket as well. From a trainer stat aspect, this barn has won with half of their six starters fitting all this exact criteria -- any sex or age - - with the winners returning $10 and $9. #4 GET IT TO MATTHEW played the fade when besting but one at first asking, but takes a little bit of a drop today and has been freshened up since that afternoon. Pre layoff pilot returns, which is something we always like to see. #8 HAVE YOU HEARD has been kept in jail since being purchased for 75 large in early March, and returns back at that exact same level despite having disappointed in his last pair. Notorious money burner may finally offer a little bit of value this afternoon, and as his lone start on a good surface yielded a daylight clear runner up finish. We're inclined to give him another opportunity. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 LOGIN REQUIRED fills the bill, as backers of Nevin are anything but in heaven when it comes to those fitting today's criteria, as she's 1-13 w/that sort. NOTE: AS OF 12:11, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR, 3RD SELECTION.
Race 2 | 1st -Collected Special | 2nd -Barksdale | 3rd -Stolen Magic |
#2 COLLECTED SPECIAL shoots for the hat trick today, and given the way he's gone wire to wire in both starts this annum, we say it's definitely within reach. Colt drops a couple of pounds off the win, which is something we always dig, and there is a nice DRF Formulator stat in play here. Over the last 5 years Atras is 7 of 16 w/his second off the claim dirt runners who won 22 to 50 days back right here, ( at 7-1 or less ) and there's an ROI of $2.93 with that sort. #4 BARKSDALE made every calling a winning one down in Lexington, and while a bounce is always possible off a second off the layoff/career best effort, we'd be remiss in excluding. #6 STOLEN MAGIC has been a part of the superfecta in four of five stars to date, with his best efforts having come over this oval. Logical, given the outside placement.
Race 3 | 1st -Daddy Knows | 2nd -Prince of Joy | 3rd -My Friend's Beer |
#2 DADDY KNOWS all the way. #4 PRINCE OF JOY hasn't shown diddly poo in his last quartet, but best work has come at this trip & over the strip, and there's improvement in the stirrups this afternoon. Could jazz things up behind the likely favorite. #7 MY FRIEND'S BEER has closed out the triple in his last troika. Who we to rock that boat?
Race 4 | 1st -Bossmakinbossmoves | 2nd -Mystic Night | 3rd -Allaboutthemoney |
#2 BOSSMAKINBOSSMOVES didn't show much in his first start off the claim last month, but there's no scary drop here, and 5 year old has done decent work at today's distance of ground. From a trainer stat aspect, shedrow is 12:7-2-1 with second off the claim mid level dirt stock or breaks of 15 to 48 days. #6 MYSTIC NIGHT won this race at the end of March, so how can we leave out, especially given his proclivity for finding the winner's circle in Ozone Park. Toss in a 6 fer 8 barn mark with Aqueduct based mid level dirt horsies ( ridden by today's jock ) who scored 23 to 50 days ago ( $3.70 return on investment ) #8 ALLABOUTTHEMONEY has been in just that all three times he is gone from two turns to one. Will give him a chance to do the same here at a decent number. NOTE: AS OF 12:15, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR, 3RD SELECTION.
Race 5 | 1st -Samburu ( GB ) | 2nd -Going Concern | 3rd -Hold the Salsa |
#11 SAMBURU (GB) is on an honest 4:1-1-1 streak coming into today, and after the decent showing down in Hallandale Beach, is protected against being purchased this afternoon. Expect him to be on the choo choo early, in a race that's tough to decipher. #6 GOING CONCERN got up in time to procure the sheepskin in Oldsmar on Saint Valentine's day, and the monstrous pedigree for the trip tells us that day's tally was by no means a fluke. Repeat quite feasible. #2 HOLD THE SALSA hasn't been seen since New Year's Eve eve, but posted a bullet breeze for today's comebacker and may grab a share. OFF TURF: 10-2-12-4-14(MTO)
Race 6 | 1st -Mazzei | 2nd -Instamatic | 3rd -Art of Courage |
#2 MAZZEI takes his first afternoon trek to the front side today, and although the work tab hasn't done much to get the heart thumping, we're assuaged by the high Tomlinson figure for today's distance of ground. From a limited trainer statistic point of view, Bond is on a 3 for 9 run with Queens based firsters on the sod, with the winners coming back at magnanimous $120, $86, and $9, with a sub category of 2:1-1-0 when Javy is on board. Interesting. #1 INSTAMATIC has improved with each passing start, but despite the solid efforts, has recently lost his procreating abilities. Miracle drug is now a part of the makeup, and could pose a threat if able to find a seam late. #3 ART OF COURAGE hasn't been in action for nearly the full length of a calendar, but outran his odds in a big way when completing the exacta @ 24 to 1 last May in his first turf engagement. Obvious threat if able to get back to that. OFF TURF: 13(AE)-1-3-5-15(AE)
Race 7 | 1st -Quick to Accuse | 2nd -Locke and Key | 3rd -Mason Mania |
#7 QUICK TO ACCUSE returned off a two+ month freshening to pick up the lion's share against A1X competition right here last out. We are not too worried about a bounce today, has barn knows how to keep them good when they're going good, and this fella has done decently over this oval. Slight edge. #5 LOCKE AND KEY has hit the board in seven of his last eight starts on the sandy stuff, and sheds a solid 5 lb.'s off a decent placing back on 3/29. Can't fault those taking a favorable view. #1 MASON MANIA is in excellent form these days, but being he's a nibbler by nature at the Big A, we will relegate to the unders.
Race 8 | 1st -Short Dhift | 2nd -Alittlebitnaughty | 3rd -Brooklyn Dantz |
#5 SHORT SHIFT has been MIA since last June, but closed out the superfecta in a decent performance in the sole turf try just prior to that. Obviously, there's a lot of wood to chop to get back to that performance, but it's good to see C-Squared off to such a hot start at the meet. Mild choice in a race -- as usual this time of year -- with no first draft tossouts. #10 ALITTLEBITNAUGHTY is another one who hasn't gotten dressed up in quite some time, but owns a couple of decent running lines on the blades, and is now in receipt of Lasix for the first time. Obviously, the draw stinks like an old slipper. #2 BROOKLYN DANTZ ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) is a half to a turfer who finished 4th in a troubled trip the only time she tried the stuff, while also being a half to another runner who lost by a bit over three lengths after showing some good speed on the grass in his one attempt. Should be a big price. OFF TURF: 6-1-11(AE)-8-12(AE)
Aqueduct ( Spring ): 23-110 ( $240.90 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-7 ( 14.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 41-110 ( 40% ) ( As of Friday afternoon )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout
Decent day for us here yesterday with a pair of chalky winners, a $634 Triple Box, a $30 cold Triple, four Exacta Boxes of $81, $15, $18 & $7, and a successful "Beatable Favorite", as we maintain our flat bet profit for the meet.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #2 Practical Miss Race 8 - #8 Roagna NOTE: AS OF 10:44, RACE 1 DOES NOT HAVE A BEATABLE FACORITE.
Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1.
I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
Race 1 | 1st -Dramatic Effect | 2nd -Montauk Mystique | 3rd -Teresa |
#5 DRAMATIC EFFECT has ( for this allotment ) a decent collection of Beyer speed figures, & new shot caller adds blinkers for the first time today; an appreciable jockey change is in play as well. Mild choice in an opener with but one first draft elimination. #4 MONTAUK MYSTIQUE has partaken in the superfecta over her last octet, but as this one has burned a little bit of money at times, we'll relegate to the unders once again -- especially given her penchant for troubled trips. #6 TERESA has completed the triple in half of her six outings over a glib surface, and switches from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 PRACTICAL MISS NOTE: AS OF 10:44, RACE 1 DOES NOT HAVE A BEATABLE FACORITE. NOTE: AS OF 10:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Race 2 | 1st -Youbetterbejoking | 2nd -Solo In Paris | 3rd -Agility |
#2 YOUBETTERBEJOKING is showing a decent "Z" pattern from the most recent, as the gelding lost 3 and 3/4 lengths from the quarter pole to the half, before gaining a whopping 12 and 1/4 from that point to the line. 4 year old has done his best work at today's distance of ground, and slides in two slots off said race. #1 SOLO IN PARIS hasn't done much to get the heart thumping over his last handful, but found the line first the last time he was entered for 25k or less, and should be able to save a bit more ground today than in the 4/11 heat. #3 AGILITY was kept in jail after the claim two back, and showed decent mettle when returning in a near identical spot about a month and a half later. There was improved early speed shown that day, and with one only zippy sort signed on, rates a chance if able to get to the top and set some fractions early on. AS OF 5:29 P.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.
Race 3 | 1st -Seeking Unity | 2nd -Proven Hope | 3rd -Reserve Currency |
#6 SEEKING UNITY was a lively runner up in this race a month ago, and off of that race alone, deserves your respect. Mild choice in a tough deal to decipher. #4 PROVEN HOPE had no palpable excuse for the next to last effort back on March 15th, but owns a win and a showing from his only two tries when going from one turn to two, and goes from Harkie to a Hall of Famer today. Recognize the fact that four comebackers from the last outing, yielded a cumulative 4:2-1-0 record in their subsequent three starts, with an average speed figure improvement of one point per. #5 RESERVE CURRENCY lost by just a sliver in his only two turn attempt, and despite being out of prison after the March 8th snag, is protected against being bought once again this afternoon. Pre-claim pilot returns, which is something we always dig.
Race 4 | 1st -Kerry | 2nd -Lady Mia ( Fr ) | 3rd -Risk Free |
#2 KERRY hasn't been seen since New Year's Eve Eve, but was an honest runner-up in her only turf dash off a sabbatical, digs this course and trip ( as the 3:1-1-1 mark belies ), and if you can see your way clear to drawing lines through the stakes attempts along with the the dirt tries, then what you have is a solid 6:3-2-1 boxscore. One of those wins came the only time she paired up with today's pilot on the gramma, and rates a big shot today. #1 LADY MIA (FR), went all the way in her only start on firm ground, and has a crisp three or four mark at today's trip. #5 RISK FREE is a notorious nibbler ( 25:1-10-7 ), but it's encouraging to see Javy take the mount. OFF TURF: 1-2-4-5-6
Race 5 | 1st -Printrack | 2nd -Capone | 3rd -Mister J T |
#2 PRINTRACK has done sensational work for Rudy Rod since the claim at the end of last August, as this bay boy has gone 7:4-3-0 during that time, and is the poster boy of how you can rake in money in these starter races. 16:6-7-0 mark at today's distance of ground is a groovy one at that, and we see the race as going directly through him. #3 CAPONE showed true grit when coming again to get up by a honker versus slightly softer last out, and ended up in a different barn afterwards for all his efforts. Building digs the trip and strip, and outfit has done well this year with limited stock. #7 MISTER J T was claimed out of a disappointing effort on the 21st of March, but there's no scary drop in today's third off the bench engagement, and note that the last victory came beneath. Eligible to rebound. AS OF 10:48, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Race 6 | 1st -Walley World | 2nd -Carson's Run | 3rd -Works for Me |
We don't have the best of reads on this featured race, so exercise a little caution. #6 WALLEY WORLD has been beset by back-to-back layoff lines, but closed out the exacta directly behind a next out victor in one of them, and has not been worse than second in any race in which he wasn't interfered with. Franco gets back on today, and we like this one's ability to stay close to the pace, or rate just a bit off of it. #2 CARSON'S RUN has been in absentia since finishing in the back half of the pack in the Breeders' Cup, but had improved with each passing start just prior to that, & is an obvious factor if fully cranked up. #3 WORKS FOR ME nearly went all the way at 17 to 1 in his sole turf try, but have some mixed signals here, as he may have out ran his pedigree a bit that day. OFF TURF: 1-3-2-4-5
Race 7 | 1st -Clem Lebine | 2nd -Joker Boy | 3rd -Winning Drive |
#10 CLEM LEBINE didn't show a heck of a lot when returning off a bit of a freshening, but after doing a deep dive, we see that he's 6:2-2-0-2 in second off the bench jamborees, which is statistically better than all his other outings. 8yr. old war horse makes his 50th start today, and in a bit of an anomaly does such while getting blinkers for the first time. Factor that in with coming in at his lowest level to date, as well as having fared well when breaking from the outermost two slots, and we'll give this one a shot at what may be a decent offering for a barn that is hard to get good value on. #3 JOKER BOY outran his 65 to 1 offering in the most recent, and as he had been a bit out of form in the four starts prior to that, perhaps he could be sitting on a decent effort @ double-digit odds once again. #2 WINNING DRIVE has been a part of the super in four of his last five, and is good as any for the show dough. NOTE: AS OF 5:33 P.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS. AS OF 10:52, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #11 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Race 8 | 1st -Stella Mars | 2nd -Can't Fool Me | 3rd -Succulent |
After finishing in the back half of the pack in her three starts to close out 2023, #9 STELLA MARS undergoes a major barn transformation for today's return, and gets an upgrade in the saddle as well. Six year old has done decent work at today's distance, and there are a few solid morning moves on display for the comebacker. Slight edge. #4 CAN'T FOOL ME has been away since turkey time, but owns a win right here, and jockey/trainer combination fare better in tandem that apart. #7 SUCCULENT hasn't been seen in nearly the full length of a calendar, but shedrow does well enough with returnees of this sort, and should be left in the mix. OFF TURF: 3-6-5-8-1 BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 ROAGNA NOTE: AS OF 5:37 P.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS. AS OF 10:56, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Race 9 | 1st -Scherzando | 2nd -All Good Here | 3rd -Bettrluckythangood |
#5 SCHERZANDO ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) is officially a professional maiden these days, but that being said, it's difficult to ignore the fact that he is on a 6:M-4-1 over the green stuff, with most of those efforts coming beneath today's jock. You may not be getting huge odds on this one, but they should still be honest enough to take a swing. #1 ALL GOOD HERE apparently hasn't been all good, as he's been away since last July. We like that there is no scary drop for this cheaply bred animal, however, and recognize that the career best numero came after a hibernation. New gelding would be no surprise. #4 BETTRLUCKYTHANGOOD has been in the money in both sod starts thus far, and is another sensible selection despite coming in off a layoff. OFF TURF: 10-2-8-9-7 AS OF 11:00, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Aqueduct ( Spring ): 25-118 ( $248.60 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-8 ( 12.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 45-118 ( 38.1% ) ( As of Saturday afternoon )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout
Closing Day today, as we maintain our flat bet profit for the meet.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #5 Life Changer
Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1.
I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
Race 1 | 1st -Alpha Sonny | 2nd -Mam's Dream | 3rd -Qorowke |
This triad should suffice for all our rolling action. #4 ALPHA SONNY ( who should be no worse than third for all you show grinders out there ) showed improved speed last time out, and even encountered a little bit of trouble before fading to fifth that day. Gelding is facing no world beaters here, and iss a threat to go all the way if able to set uncontested splits. #6 MAMA'S DREAM is another one who has some early zip, and takes the biggest drop in the game which is of some high relevance, as he was a snappy and well clear runner up the last time made available for purchase. #3 QOROKWE ( a place in Botswana ) has ( for this allotment ) a fair collection of speed figures, and may grab a slice.
Race 2 | 1st -South Street | 2nd -Morning | 3rd -Mudville Nine |
#6 SOUTH STREET was taken seven wide in a five horse field ( Nurse !! ) last time out, but still managed to get up in time at the level just underneath this one. It's been a long drink of water between tallies, but we feel a repeat as well within reach, as Jacobson is a perfect 3 for 3 with dirt dashers who won less than 17 days ago at 9 to 2 or less. The winners came back $8, $3, and $4, and this one could do with any type of pace set up. #2 MORNING CUP has been away since the fall, but posted decent figaros in both dirt starts after a sabbatical, & recognize that the lone win came right here. From a Formulator point of view, barn is three of six with locally based mid level dirt entrants who scored in a race claimed from > 50 days back. #1 MUDVILLE NINE is 3:2-0-1 at today's distance of ground, and was a lively runner up the only time he was first to load.
Race 3 | 1st -Leading Contender | 2nd -Lord Captain | 3rd -Bendoog |
#2 LEADING CONTENDER has partaken in the exacta in six of seven two turn events, with a large chunk of them coming right here. Logical yes, but this lightly raced 5 year old has lost the last four times being sent off as the public choice, so while we'll be using, it's with a touch of trepidation. #6 LORD CAPTAIN went all the way against what we would consider to be a slightly tougher grouping last time out, posting his second best speed figure to date. Of course, we love the declining mark of 15:6-3-0. #1 BENDOOG returned off of freshening to gamely best N1X foes right here 22 days in the past, and as he was an honest runner up the only time in a second off the layoff deal, we'll toss in the mix.
Race 4 | 1st -M B's Munning | 2nd -Little Luca | 3rd -Amundson |
#7 M B'S MUNNING down the lane. #2 LITTLE LUCA came back after a two month respite to make every call of winning one versus Empire breds, and as this fellow recently fared well in a second off the layoff try, we wouldn't be surprised to see another goodie. #1 AMUNDSON is positively a win machine, having found the line first in one third of his 36 afternoon treks to the front side, and slides in five slots off the recent score. We see a 3:1-0-1 record when loading first, but will need to find a seam late in the game. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 LIFE CHANGER doesn't make our first cut, so why would we take 5/2 ?
Race 5 | 1st -Timed | 2nd -Capital Gal | 3rd -Starry Midnight |
#4 TIMED has been kept in jail since being snagged for a double saw buck two and a half months ago, but trainer calls on their go to rider for today's return, which is encouraging. Historically, this one has a win and three placings from just as many starts off the pine, and owns a fair mark at the trip and over the strip. #7 CAPITAL GAL ( cross entered on Saturday, so check the changes ) is a rare "first off a nickel claim from Turfway Park" entrant, and makes his Aqueduct return without eye cups for the first time in a while. Price play. #5 STARRY MIDNIGHT didn't show much in the first off the claim start for Jimmy Ferraro, but is back at relatively the same level from the showing two back, and has always historically been better on a fast track that one with moisture in it. Jockey/Trainer combo have been potent, and we'll incorporate.
Race 6 | 1st -Sweet Rebecca | 2nd -Living Magic | 3rd -Miss Motley |
#2 SWEET REBECCA was privately purchased after a visually impressive win right out of the box down in Hallandale Beach last month, and obviously, she couldn't end up in a better barn. It's good to see T-Gaff come up for the mount, and gal is a mild choice in a race with no first draft eliminations. #5 LIVING MAGIC has a bunch of back class, and we love how she doesn't need to bring her track with her, as she has raced on six different ovals from as many outings. Chance to rebound getting back on a firm course. #4 MISS MOTLEY ( uncoupled barnmate with our top selection ) was another one who looked good winning at first asking at Oldsmar, and the bloodlines tell us the result that day was likely not an aberration. OFF TURF: 9(MTO)-4-8-2-6
Race 7 | 1st -Storming Chrome | 2nd -Kan't Beat The Rock | 3rd -Leonids |
#7 STORMING CHROME bested half the field at 30-1 in his Big Apple debut a month ago, but was on a 4:2-2-0 run just prior to that, and is supported by a solid DRF Formulator statistic today. Over the last 60 months, De Paz is De Man when it comes to his locally based allowance dirt dashers off breaks of 50 days or less. He's a crisp five of six in that regards and just look at the prices: $17, $20, $10, $5, and $3. #9 KAN'T BEAT THE ROCK is a steady if unspectacular sort, but comes out of a race where four returnees have rung up a cumulative for 4:2-1-0 mark from their three sui generis followups. We see that this fellow has a win and three placings from his quartet of starts when going into the gate last, and there actually maybe a touch of value here. #1 LEONIDS hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but is one for two at today's distance of ground, and is a factor of sound and fully cranked up.
Race 8 | 1st -Upside Potential | 2nd -Mischievous Angel | 3rd -Yarrow |
Difficult race to grasp a hold of here, so tread lightly. #6 UPSIDE POTENTIAL has exactly that, as this bay boy replicated the snazzy maiden win when going all the way against starter competition in the follow up. That's never an easy thing to accomplish, and as he is just as equally bred for the green as the brown, we see no reason the hat trick can't be completed in this spot. #10 MISCHIEVOUS ANGEL has been MIA since finishing in the back half of the pack up at Saratoga, but gets blinkers for today's comeback attempt, and as he picked up the lion's share the only time he was on a firm course, will toss in. #4 YARROW is another one who's been away for quite some time, but has yet to miss a superfecta off a L/O, and fared quite well in his lone pairing w/today's pilot. OFF TURF:14(MTO)-4-13(MTO)-3-9
Race 9 | 1st -Be of Courage | 2nd -Ez Roll | 3rd -Gem Mint Ten |
#4 BE OF COURAGE was given the winter off after a flat performance back in December, but that's common for this one, and it's a good sign to see Castellano come back aboard, as the lone victory occurred while he was at the helm. May be overlooked parimutually because of the winless connections, but was doing fine work on the verde at the end of last year, and we like a few of the workouts shown in preparation for today's return. #10 EZ ROLL has done nothing but improve with each passing start, and gets the miracle drug for today's first start against winners. Logical, but leaving beneath because of the chilly jock. #2 GEM MINT TEN closes out our day, week, month and meet here. As always, we want to thank our loyal readers at Saratoga Bets, Batavia Bets, Yonkers Raceway, and Capital OTB for your continued patronage. See y'all Thursday for the start of the Spring/Summer stand !! OFF TURF: 1-8-2-12-13(MTO) NOTE: AS OF 6:28 P.M. FRIDAY, WE ARE AMENDING OUR SELECTIONS TO 12-2-10.
Aqueduct ( Spring ): 28-127 ( $261 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-9 ( 11.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 52-127 ( 41% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout
Banner day for us here on Sunday, as our Grand Slam gave us our 18th ( !! ) profitable meet in 10+ years here. We also had a $20 cold Pick Three, two cold Doubles of $11 & $9, and another successful "Beatable Favorite", as we crushed it in that department yet again.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): ( Odds not posted as of 9:19 P.M. Friday )
Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1.
I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
Race 1 | 1st -Eric From Miami | 2nd -Indian Quest | 3rd -Rockstar Boy |
Opening day of the new meet today, and it's a toughie with no first draft eliminations. #5 ERIC FROM MIAMI took the biggest drop in the game and found it to his liking when bursting through the maiden ranks back in mid February, and drops 4 lbs. off that effort while sliding in three slots for today's comebacker. Lone start off the bench left a lot to be desired, but seems decently spotted for his first try against winners. #6 INDIAN QUEST was curiously claimed from an outfit whose only horse was this one ( which used to be bad manner back in the day ) in the 44-1 bow last month, so apparently, somebody knew something about this critter. Colt was moved up to first place via DQ that day, so the new connections lost the condition right off the bat. That being said, it's tough to ignore the 381 Tomlinson for today's trip, as well as drawing outside again for the followup. #4 ROCKSTAR BOY was visually impressive when besting maiden platers on February 25th, and as he has yet to miss the money in Ozone park, we'll incorporate.
Race 2 | 1st -Maggie T | 2nd -Argentina Girl | 3rd -I Feel the Need |
#2 MAGGIE T has finished a lively second in near identical spots over her last duet, and best work has happened to come right here at The Big A. Logical, but by no means a cinch. #7 ARGENTINA GIRL has played the fade in her last pair, but gets in with a feather today, and could forget to stop if able to set some easy splits. #1 I FEEL THE NEED is but 5 days removed from jail after the claim at the end of March, and may grab a share.
Race 3 | 1st -Thrill of It | 2nd -Excellent Timing | 3rd -Donegal Surges |
#4 THRILL OF IT is a pretty consistent fellow who has two wins and two showings from his last quartet. Horse for the course shoots for his fifth win from 13 starts over this oval, and exits a race where both returnees were victorious when next in action. Sensible selection in a truncated but wide open event. #5 EXCELLENT TIMING appears to be the clear speed of this deal, and the 10:3-3-2 mark in Queens stands out against the 6:0-1-1 ledger otherwise. Six year old has fared well when breaking from an outside post, and they will have to grab him by the tail to get the glory. #2 DONEGAL SURGES shoots for the hat trick today, and as he appears to be a completely different animal over his last pair, we feel it's well within reach.
Race 4 | 1st -Gun maestro | 2nd -Sondsliksomdiniddo | 3rd -Papi On Ice |
#7 GUN MAESTRO faded a little bit in this race 27 days in the rear, but there doesn't appear to be any speed in this deal whatsoever, and despite his nibbling ways, could go all the way. Mild choice. #3 SONDSLIKSOMDINIDDO is a bit of a fragile sort, but returned off the recent layoff to score by a neck against maiden claiming foes. Lands in a cushy spot for his first try against victor's. #2 PAPI ON ICE has an ugly resume, but lone win came right here, and may spice things up beneath.
Race 5 | 1st -Beuys ( Ire ) | 2nd - | 3rd -Brumba waffle toes |
#4 BEUYS (IRE) hasn't shown much in either outing this annum, but lightly raced 6 yr. old fell short by only a neck the one time he was in a third of the layoff spot. Most timid of selections in a turf event that's hard to figure out. #2 DAUNT has been laid up since the fall, but was the snappy runner up the last time he returned off an absence, and has done quite well beneath Castellano. #5 BRUMBA WAFFLE TOES was up the track down in Lexington on 4/19, but did poorly in his only other start after being MIA, then followed that up with a lively placing at 4-1. Could be coming late with any sort of pace to cut into. OFF TURF: 3-1-4-2-5
Race 6 | 1st -Bourbon Calling | 2nd -Bold Victory | 3rd -Gut Feeling |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #4 BOURBON CALLING nearly got the job done when facing slightly tougher on the 7th of April, and as his best work has come at this trip and over this strip, we can see him picking up the lions share this afternoon. Should be no worse than third for all you show grinders out there. #5 BOLD VICTORY has been in the rear with the gear over his last pair, but loses the eye cups for new connections today, and that's fine by us as he had hit the board in the first three starts of his career when running sans blinkers ( before beginning to utilize them two starts afterwards ). Note the recent bullet breeze. #7 GUT FEELING takes the mandatory hike in class after being snagged for $16,000 back on April 6th, and the pre-claim pilot from that day comes back, which is something we always like; of course, we adore the local declining mark of 11:4-2-0.
Race 7 | 1st -Jackson heights | 2nd -Dr. Kraft | 3rd -Battle of Lexington |
#3 JACKSON HEIGHTS returned off a lengthy sabbatical to pick up 20% of the pot against similar sort 19 days ago, and as we see that he showed nice improvement in his one other second off the bench engagement, it's easy envision a move forward here. #4 DR KRAFT has been in the money over his last quintet, but we're going to keep him beneath as Trevor is extremely icy these days. #5 BATTLE OF LEXINGTON came along to complete the triple in his first start off a long break in the action down in Keeneland, but picks up 6 lb's while moving out five slots off of that, so we will relegate to the unders.
Race 8 | 1st -Izzy Sweet Girl ( Ire ) | 2nd -Sassy Allie | 3rd -Marco T. |
#1A IZZY SWEET GIRL (IRE) outran her odds when completing the superfecta in a two length defeat first time out, and the pedigree tells us there's some room for improvement off of that Hallandale Beach overture. #3 SASSY ALLIE gets her working papers today, and although the pedigree is unproven for the gramma, her 382 Tommy at the distance is extremely solid, & sometimes that can carry a horse a long way even if they are short on turf experience. #4 MARCO T has been beset by some layoff lines, but has also never missed the triple, and who are we to rock that boat? OFF TURF: 1-5-10-3-13(MTO)
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4175-20340 ($34,492.10) +/-: -15% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 460-1716( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7665-20444( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4188-20908 ( $35,411.40 )Beatable Favorites : 470-1762( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7808-21030( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.3% against a 16.7% takeout
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): ( Odds not shown as of 11:59 P.M. Saturday )
Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1.
I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
Race 1 | 1st -Two Redheads | 2nd -Army of Thoughts | 3rd -Keep It Sexy |
#2 TWO REDHEADS trailed throughout when returning off a 5 month sabbatical, and as she was odds on that day, it makes the grotesque result all the more head scratching. New trainer calling the shots today, and the first thing he does is to add blinkers in hopes of getting back that decent early zip. Jockey is going great guns of late, and this miss is one of two at today's distance of ground. #4 ARMY OF THOUGHTS appears to be the speed of this deal, and while we're not quite sure what gets her back into the winner's circle, some soft splits along with today's reduction in weight could possibly do the trick. #3 KEEP IT SEXY ( We can relate ! ) has improved over her last troika, and totes a feather this afternoon. Would be no surprise.
Race 2 | 1st -Adeliesa's Smile | 2nd -Lady Mine | 3rd -Dame Cinco |
#4 ADELIESA'S SMILE hasn't been in action since last July, but we're assuaged by the fact that this girl overcame some trouble to be a lively runner-up at 29 to 1 in her lone start off a sabbatical. Bullet on the work tab adds to the allure. #3 LADY MINE has gotten a 2 month freshening after having won two of three going back to late December, and we dig how she was victorious in one of two races off a break, as well. Note the declining 7:3-1-0 record beneath the seagulls. #2 DAME CINCO rounds out the top three.
Race 3 | 1st -Royalty Interest ( Fr ) | 2nd -Star Fortress ( Ire ) | 3rd - La Mehana ( Fr ) |
#3 ROYALTY INTEREST (FR) finds herself at the deep end of the pool today, but aside from the outing at Grantville, she's handled herself decently so far. Gal makes her third start off the bench here, and as she's bred to do much better, we wouldn't be surprised to see this longer priced half of the uncoupled entry picking up the lion's share. #2 STAR FORTRESS (IRE) flopped when last seen at Keeneland, but only lost by a combined seven lengths in the two starts prior to that, and poses a threat if able to get back to that snazzy win last fall. #5 LA MEHANA (FR) had to jam on the brakes beneath Rosario down in Hallandale Beach at the end of March, but still managed to pick up 12% of the pot that day. We dig that she's two of three in second off the shelf engagements, and could sit a sweet trip in the first of two stakes on the day. OFF TURF: 1-2-4-3-5
Race 4 | 1st -Roman Goddess | 2nd -Status Seeker | 3rd -Mucho Mama Mia |
#4 ROMAN GODDESS has been a part of the superfecta in 9 of her last 10 starts on the sand, and we like the confidence shown in regards to there not being a scary drop today after the recent disappointment. Perhaps the connections see what we saw, that this one is historically about 14.2% better on a fast track than one with moisture in it. #5 STATUS SEEKER hadn't been seen for 10 flips of the calendar, but showed stark improvement when facing winners for the first time, and that's never an easy thing to do. Blinks are now a part of the makeup while this filly goes from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon. #2 MUCHO MAMA MIA has been an absentia since the maiden breaker back in September, but she's never been out of the money on the dirty stuff, and who are we to the rock that boat?
Race 5 | 1st - Thethrillofvictory | 2nd -Veterans Beach | 3rd -Leftembehind |
#3 THETHRILLOFVICTORY was shipped up from Florida in advance of the local turf season, and she arrives in excellent form, as she is on a 4:2-1-0-1 skein of late. McCarthy is positively frigid these days, but we'll give this one a tepid nod. #8 VETERANS BEACH made every call a winning one when facing $16,000 foes in GP last month, and believe It or not, we actually consider this a mild drop in class. #6 LEFTEMBEHIND was given the winter off by Sackatoga, and while Tagg isn't known for having his runners fully cranked up off of lengthy absences, we see that this chestnut chap completed the exacta at 37-1 the last time he returned off an absence. OFF TURF: 1-3-4-2-6
Race 6 | 1st -Stolen Base | 2nd -Accretive | 3rd -Baby Yoda |
#4 STOLEN BASE is a steady if unspectacular sort who enters today off of three straight finishes in the super, with two of those being his career best in the Buyer department. Mild choice in a heat with no first draft tosses. #5 ACCRETIVE returned off a bit of an absence to close out the exacta versus this sort, and while he was a bit of a disappointment being four to five that day, we'll chunk in because of the back class. There was so much promise for #1 BABY YODA a while back, but now he's just cashing some minor checks at the optional level. Will include, but not with much enthusiasm.
Race 7 | 1st -Final Edition ( Ire ) | 2nd -Frostelle | 3rd -Feltrinelli |
#7 FINAL EDITION (IRE) gets her working papers today, and does such with a sensational best of 122 gate breeze staring you smack dab in the middle of the face. The turf pedigree is most definitely there, and three members of the family tree scored in first asking, with the other three getting their primary tally in their second, third, and fourth starts. Will likely take some pounding at the windows. #6 FROSTELLE is another one beginning her professional career this afternoon, and also has an impressive work ledger. We're going to keep beneath, tho, because he gives up some maturity in being a May foal. #1 FELTRINELLI has completed the triple and both starts this far, and is reunited with the pilot from one of those for today's return to action. OFF TURF: 7-3-5-2-10(MTO)
Race 8 | 1st -Charge | 2nd -Post Time | 3rd -Whittington Park |
Second stakes on the day is a competitive rendition of the Westchester, and we'll give the nod to #7 CHARGE IT. This gray fella has a solid amount of back class, was a convincing winner in 2 of 3 starts after a L/O, and is supported by a solid DRF Formulator statistic. Over the last 260 weeks, The Toddster is a swift 6 of 11 with male dirt dashers at this level off breaks of 52 days or more ( 3-1 or less ). The ROI for that survey is $2.55, and there's a subcategory of one for one right here. #4 POST TIME is but a length and change shy of having an unblemished nine for nine record, and that includes a win over this oval. Kind of reminds us of Xtra Heat a little bit. #5 WHITTINGTON PARK is four of eight at in Queens, and what the hell is wrong with that ?
Race 9 | 1st -Union Trail | 2nd -My Life Story | 3rd -Tony O |
This threesome should suffice for all your rolling action in the day's nightcap. #9 UNION TRAIL returned off a lengthy layoff to give a respectable performance down at Gulfstream back in mid March, and did such despite getting smacked around at the beginning. The figaro garnered that day was substantially better than the primary turf performance last year, so who knows where the ceiling is with this one. #3 MY LIFE STORY is another who got better when going over the verde for the second time, and did such despite facing tougher competition being roughed up a little bit. Colt slides in five slots off of that effort, and should be no worse than third for all you show grinders out there. We like to look anywhere in a maidens past performances to find something positive, and the #10 TONY O does in fact have some decently adjusted numbers from way back when. It's a good way to ferret out some prices, as they are maidens for a reason, and will toss her in the hopper. OFF TURF: 9-6-3-1A-5
Aqueduct ( Spring ): 28-127 ( $277.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-9 ( 11.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 52-127 ( 41% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout