Decent Opening Day for us here yesterday with a pair of winners, three Rolling Doubles of $19, $75 & $73, three Exacta Boxes of $67, $13 & $131, an $84 cold Triple, and a $9 cold Quinella.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #7 Laurel Valley
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Two Redheads | 2nd -Army of Thoughts | 3rd -Keep It Sexy |
#2 TWO REDHEADS trailed throughout when returning off a 5 month sabbatical, and as she was odds on that day, it makes the grotesque result all the more head scratching. New trainer calling the shots today, and the first thing he does is to add blinkers in hopes of getting back that decent early zip. Jockey is going great guns of late, and this miss is one of two at today's distance of ground. #4 ARMY OF THOUGHTS appears to be the speed of this deal, and while we're not quite sure what gets her back into the winner's circle, some soft splits along with today's reduction in weight could possibly do the trick. #3 KEEP IT SEXY ( We can relate ! ) has improved over her last troika, and totes a feather this afternoon. Would be no surprise.
| Race 2 | 1st -Adeliesa's Smile | 2nd -Lady Mine | 3rd -Dame Cinco |
#4 ADELIESA'S SMILE hasn't been in action since last July, but we're assuaged by the fact that this girl overcame some trouble to be a lively runner-up at 29 to 1 in her lone start off a sabbatical. Bullet on the work tab adds to the allure. #3 LADY MINE has gotten a 2 month freshening after having won two of three going back to late December, and we dig how she was victorious in one of two races off a break, as well. Note the declining 7:3-1-0 record beneath the seagulls. #2 DAME CINCO rounds out the top three. NOTE: AS OF 10:29, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 3 | 1st -Royalty Interest ( Fr ) | 2nd -Star Fortress ( Ire ) | 3rd - La Mehana ( Fr ) |
#3 ROYALTY INTEREST (FR) finds herself at the deep end of the pool today, but aside from the outing at Grantville, she's handled herself decently so far. Gal makes her third start off the bench here, and as she's bred to do much better, we wouldn't be surprised to see this longer priced half of the uncoupled entry picking up the lion's share. #2 STAR FORTRESS (IRE) flopped when last seen at Keeneland, but only lost by a combined seven lengths in the two starts prior to that, and poses a threat if able to get back to that snazzy win last fall. #5 LA MEHANA (FR) had to jam on the brakes beneath Rosario down in Hallandale Beach at the end of March, but still managed to pick up 12% of the pot that day. We dig that she's two of three in second off the shelf engagements, and could sit a sweet trip in the first of two stakes on the day. OFF TURF: 1-2-4-3-5
| Race 4 | 1st -Roman Goddess | 2nd -Status Seeker | 3rd -Mucho Mama Mia |
#4 ROMAN GODDESS has been a part of the superfecta in 9 of her last 10 starts on the sand, and we like the confidence shown in regards to there not being a scary drop today after the recent disappointment. Perhaps the connections see what we saw, that this one is historically about 14.2% better on a fast track than one with moisture in it. #5 STATUS SEEKER hadn't been seen for 10 flips of the calendar, but showed stark improvement when facing winners for the first time, and that's never an easy thing to do. Blinks are now a part of the makeup while this filly goes from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon. #2 MUCHO MAMA MIA has been an absentia since the maiden breaker back in September, but she's never been out of the money on the dirty stuff, and who are we to the rock that boat?
| Race 5 | 1st - Thethrillofvictory | 2nd -Veterans Beach | 3rd -Leftembehind |
#3 THETHRILLOFVICTORY was shipped up from Florida in advance of the local turf season, and she arrives in excellent form, as she is on a 4:2-1-0-1 skein of late. McCarthy is positively frigid these days, but we'll give this one a tepid nod. #8 VETERANS BEACH made every call a winning one when facing $16,000 foes in GP last month, and believe It or not, we actually consider this a mild drop in class. #6 LEFTEMBEHIND was given the winter off by Sackatoga, and while Tagg isn't known for having his runners fully cranked up off of lengthy absences, we see that this chestnut chap completed the exacta at 37-1 the last time he returned off an absence. OFF TURF: 1-3-4-2-6 BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 LAUREL VALLEY fills the bill, as Maker is a woeful 3 for 54 with those fitting this criteria.
| Race 6 | 1st -Stolen Base | 2nd -Accretive | 3rd -Baby Yoda |
#4 STOLEN BASE is a steady if unspectacular sort who enters today off of three straight finishes in the super, with two of those being his career best in the Buyer department. Mild choice in a heat with no first draft tosses. #5 ACCRETIVE returned off a bit of an absence to close out the exacta versus this sort, and while he was a bit of a disappointment being four to five that day, we'll chunk in because of the back class. There was so much promise for #1 BABY YODA a while back, but now he's just cashing some minor checks at the optional level. Will include, but not with much enthusiasm. NOTE: AS OF 10:33, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 7 | 1st -Final Edition ( Ire ) | 2nd -Frostelle | 3rd -Feltrinelli |
#7 FINAL EDITION (IRE) gets her working papers today, and does such with a sensational best of 122 gate breeze staring you smack dab in the middle of the face. The turf pedigree is most definitely there, and three members of the family tree scored in first asking, with the other three getting their primary tally in their second, third, and fourth starts. Will likely take some pounding at the windows. #6 FROSTELLE is another one beginning her professional career this afternoon, and also has an impressive work ledger. We're going to keep beneath, tho, because he gives up some maturity in being a May foal. #1 FELTRINELLI has completed the triple and both starts this far, and is reunited with the pilot from one of those for today's return to action. OFF TURF: 7-3-5-2-10(MTO) NOTE: AS OF 1:38 P.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUT TOP TWO SELECTIONS.
| Race 8 | 1st -Charge | 2nd -Post Time | 3rd -Whittington Park |
Second stakes on the day is a competitive rendition of the Westchester, and we'll give the nod to #7 CHARGE IT. This gray fella has a solid amount of back class, was a convincing winner in 2 of 3 starts after a L/O, and is supported by a solid DRF Formulator statistic. Over the last 260 weeks, The Toddster is a swift 6 of 11 with male dirt dashers at this level off breaks of 52 days or more ( 3-1 or less ). The ROI for that survey is $2.55, and there's a subcategory of one for one right here. #4 POST TIME is but a length and change shy of having an unblemished nine for nine record, and that includes a win over this oval. Kind of reminds us of Xtra Heat a little bit. #5 WHITTINGTON PARK is four of eight at in Queens, and what the hell is wrong with that ?
| Race 9 | 1st -Union Trail | 2nd -My Life Story | 3rd -Tony O |
This threesome should suffice for all your rolling action in the day's nightcap. #9 UNION TRAIL returned off a lengthy layoff to give a respectable performance down at Gulfstream back in mid March, and did such despite getting smacked around at the beginning. The figaro garnered that day was substantially better than the primary turf performance last year, so who knows where the ceiling is with this one. #3 MY LIFE STORY is another who got better when going over the verde for the second time, and did such despite facing tougher competition being roughed up a little bit. Colt slides in five slots off of that effort, and should be no worse than third for all you show grinders out there. We like to look anywhere in a maidens past performances to find something positive, and the #10 TONY O does in fact have some decently adjusted numbers from way back when. It's a good way to ferret out some prices, as they are maidens for a reason, and will toss her in the hopper. OFF TURF: 9-6-3-1A-5
Aqueduct Spring/Summer: 2-8 ( $11.40 ) Beatable Favorites: ( N/A ) Favorite's Win %: 4-8 ( 50% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4175-20340 ($34,492.10) +/-: -15% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 460-1716( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7665-20444( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4188-20908 ( $35,411.40 )Beatable Favorites : 470-1762( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7808-21030( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.3% against a 16.7% takeout
