Banner day for us here on Sunday, as our Grand Slam gave us our 18th ( !! ) profitable meet in 10+ years here. We also had a $20 cold Pick Three, two cold Doubles of $11 & $9, and another successful "Beatable Favorite", as we crushed it in that department yet again.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Eric From Miami | 2nd -Indian Quest | 3rd -Rockstar Boy |
Opening day of the new meet today, and it's a toughie with no first draft eliminations. #5 ERIC FROM MIAMI took the biggest drop in the game and found it to his liking when bursting through the maiden ranks back in mid February, and drops 4 lbs. off that effort while sliding in three slots for today's comebacker. Lone start off the bench left a lot to be desired, but seems decently spotted for his first try against winners. #6 INDIAN QUEST was curiously claimed from an outfit whose only horse was this one ( which used to be bad manner back in the day ) in the 44-1 bow last month, so apparently, somebody knew something about this critter. Colt was moved up to first place via DQ that day, so the new connections lost the condition right off the bat. That being said, it's tough to ignore the 381 Tomlinson for today's trip, as well as drawing outside again for the followup. #4 ROCKSTAR BOY was visually impressive when besting maiden platers on February 25th, and as he has yet to miss the money in Ozone park, we'll incorporate.
| Race 2 | 1st -Maggie T | 2nd -Argentina Girl | 3rd -I Feel the Need |
#2 MAGGIE T has finished a lively second in near identical spots over her last duet, and best work has happened to come right here at The Big A. Logical, but by no means a cinch. #7 ARGENTINA GIRL has played the fade in her last pair, but gets in with a feather today, and could forget to stop if able to set some easy splits. #1 I FEEL THE NEED is but 5 days removed from jail after the claim at the end of March, and may grab a share.
| Race 3 | 1st -Thrill of It | 2nd -Excellent Timing | 3rd -Donegal Surges |
#4 THRILL OF IT is a pretty consistent fellow who has two wins and two showings from his last quartet. Horse for the course shoots for his fifth win from 13 starts over this oval, and exits a race where both returnees were victorious when next in action. Sensible selection in a truncated but wide open event. #5 EXCELLENT TIMING appears to be the clear speed of this deal, and the 10:3-3-2 mark in Queens stands out against the 6:0-1-1 ledger otherwise. Six year old has fared well when breaking from an outside post, and they will have to grab him by the tail to get the glory. #2 DONEGAL SURGES shoots for the hat trick today, and as he appears to be a completely different animal over his last pair, we feel it's well within reach.
| Race 4 | 1st -Gun maestro | 2nd -Sondsliksomdiniddo | 3rd -Papi On Ice |
#7 GUN MAESTRO faded a little bit in this race 27 days in the rear, but there doesn't appear to be any speed in this deal whatsoever, and despite his nibbling ways, could go all the way. Mild choice. #3 SONDSLIKSOMDINIDDO is a bit of a fragile sort, but returned off the recent layoff to score by a neck against maiden claiming foes. Lands in a cushy spot for his first try against victor's. #2 PAPI ON ICE has an ugly resume, but lone win came right here, and may spice things up beneath.
| Race 5 | 1st -Beuys ( Ire ) | 2nd - | 3rd -Brumba waffle toes |
#4 BEUYS (IRE) hasn't shown much in either outing this annum, but lightly raced 6 yr. old fell short by only a neck the one time he was in a third of the layoff spot. Most timid of selections in a turf event that's hard to figure out. #2 DAUNT has been laid up since the fall, but was the snappy runner up the last time he returned off an absence, and has done quite well beneath Castellano. #5 BRUMBA WAFFLE TOES was up the track down in Lexington on 4/19, but did poorly in his only other start after being MIA, then followed that up with a lively placing at 4-1. Could be coming late with any sort of pace to cut into. OFF TURF: 3-1-4-2-5
| Race 6 | 1st -Bourbon Calling | 2nd -Bold Victory | 3rd -Gut Feeling |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #4 BOURBON CALLING nearly got the job done when facing slightly tougher on the 7th of April, and as his best work has come at this trip and over this strip, we can see him picking up the lions share this afternoon. Should be no worse than third for all you show grinders out there. #5 BOLD VICTORY has been in the rear with the gear over his last pair, but loses the eye cups for new connections today, and that's fine by us as he had hit the board in the first three starts of his career when running sans blinkers ( before beginning to utilize them two starts afterwards ). Note the recent bullet breeze. #7 GUT FEELING takes the mandatory hike in class after being snagged for $16,000 back on April 6th, and the pre-claim pilot from that day comes back, which is something we always like; of course, we adore the local declining mark of 11:4-2-0. NOTE: AS OF 10:53 A.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.
| Race 7 | 1st -Jackson heights | 2nd -Dr. Kraft | 3rd -Battle of Lexington |
#3 JACKSON HEIGHTS returned off a lengthy sabbatical to pick up 20% of the pot against similar sort 19 days ago, and as we see that he showed nice improvement in his one other second off the bench engagement, it's easy envision a move forward here. #4 DR KRAFT has been in the money over his last quintet, but we're going to keep him beneath as Trevor is extremely icy these days. #5 BATTLE OF LEXINGTON came along to complete the triple in his first start off a long break in the action down in Keeneland, but picks up 6 lb's while moving out five slots off of that, so we will relegate to the unders.
| Race 8 | 1st -Izzy Sweet Girl ( Ire ) | 2nd -Sassy Allie | 3rd -Marco T. |
#1A IZZY SWEET GIRL (IRE) outran her odds when completing the superfecta in a two length defeat first time out, and the pedigree tells us there's some room for improvement off of that Hallandale Beach overture. #3 SASSY ALLIE gets her working papers today, and although the pedigree is unproven for the gramma, her 382 Tommy at the distance is extremely solid, & sometimes that can carry a horse a long way even if they are short on turf experience. #4 MARCO T has been beset by some layoff lines, but has also never missed the triple, and who are we to rock that boat? OFF TURF: 1-5-10-3-13(MTO)
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4175-20340 ($34,492.10) +/-: -15% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 460-1716( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7665-20444( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4188-20908 ( $35,411.40 )Beatable Favorites : 470-1762( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7808-21030( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.3% against a 16.7% takeout
