Profitable two bagger for us here yesterday, along with a successful beatable favorite, and a $39 Ice Cold Exacta.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

Race 1 1st -Apuro  2nd -Heard On TheStreet 3rd -Laser Sharp

#5 APURO hasn't faced the starter since finishing a well beaten but daylight clear runner up in the "day-beaut" in early November, but The Toddster knows how to have 'em prepped for the comebackers, and the 375 Tomlinson for today's first time on the sand is just fine and dandy. The 1st, 3rd & 4th place finishes from that heat came back to ring up a couple of wins, and those winners improved by 19.5 points in the process. #2 HEARD ON THESTREET lost by just a honkah when getting his working papers a month ago, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for all his efforts. Pretty gutsy claim for a $2,000 homebred, and this May foal is eligible to improve with maturity. #3 LASER SHARP completes our troika of choices who were a solid runner up at first asking, and chap gets the wonder drug for today's followup. 


Race 2 1st -No Surrender 2nd -Whenlovetakesover 3rd -Little Skippy

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #3 NO SURRENDER has closed out the exacta in his last pair of one turn dirt deals, and just may go all the way in a race devoid of much front end speed. #2 WHENLOVETAKESOVER showed little when being hiked up in his first start off the snag by Handal, and is promptly spotted right back at the level of the claim/placing, while retaining the jockey. Logical. #7 LITTLE SKIPPY lost by only a neck the one time he was last to load, but not quite sure seven panels is in this one's wheelhouse, so we'll keep beneath. 


Race 3 1st -Kingdom 2nd -M B's Munning 3rd -Dontbelate

#1 KINGDOM was curiously shipped down to Oaklawn after a solid win & placing right here, and after that poor result, is right back at The Big A looking to get back on track. Slight edge in a race with but one first draft tossout. #5 M B'S MUNNING is in some decent form over his last troika, and digs the trip & strip. #4 DONTBELATE shoots for the hat trick here, and Randi runner has won 6 of his last 9 over a glib surface. Must be left in the mix. 


Race 4 1st -To a T 2nd -Timed Out 3rd -Sweet as Sugar

Another heat where our listed troika should suffice. #4 TO A T hasn't done much to get the heart thumping over her last duet, but gal has a 7:3-2-1 record when made available for purchase ( which stands out QUITE favorably to being 18:1-8-4 otherwise ), and mare is backed by an honest trainer stats as well. Over the last 60 months, this barn is three of eight with AQU based mid level sand stock off breaks of 15 days or less ( ridden by today's pilot ), w/mutuels of $11 x 2 & $8. #7 TIMED OUT ( who appears to be the mainger danger to the above ) is two fer two at today's dist. of ground, but as she was cross entered yesterday, be sure to check the changes. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow  alongside the recent quintet of #1 SWEET AS SUGAR, as she;s done nothing but steadily improve over that time, and as she's dropping a nickel, can most definitely land a share. 


Race 5 1st -Stress Reliever  2nd -Geopolitics 3rd -Welcome Back 

#8 STRESS RELIEVER takes her first afternoon treck to the frontside this afternoon, and aside from going for more than 2 1/2 times the stud fee at auction, totes along a hefty 423 Tomlinson number for today's dx. of ground. The recent 8th best of 105 gate move positively pops of the page, and lone sibling to race is a present day runner who's gone 5:3-1-0-1 to date, and that includes placing right outta the box, and falling short by just a length and a quarter in a listed stakes. Oh yeah, from a DFR Formulator point of view, shedrow is 9:5-3-1 with firsters fitting all this exact criteria ( $15, $9, $7 & $3 x 2 ). #8 GEOPOLITCIS has been working well for today's overture, and from an itty bitty sampling, Mott is 2 for 3 with Aqueduct based firsters getting Lasix & being ridden by this jock ( $7 & $9 ). Recognize that this one is a half to three six digit winners. #5 WELCOME BACK rounds out the top three. 


Race 6 1st -Kenny Had a Notion 2nd -Quickflash 3rd -High Heat

#1 KENNY HAD A NOTION often gives a good account of himself, and before you dismiss this bay boy as being "a Charles Town runner", keep in mind that the purse for the last was just 4K below today's.  Six yr. old is two for three when loading first on a track labeled FST, and totes the lightest impost yet, in this, his 38th call to the post. From a trainer stat aspect, shotcaller is 3 fer 7 with dirt dashers at this level off breaks of less than a month ( 17-1 or undah ), and we'll give him the nod. #6 QUICKFLASH is a nibbler by rote ( 41:3-11-7 ), but has never seen these depths, and has historically been a bit more steady at this distance. #4 HIGH HEAT is 4-16 at the trip ( 0-9 at other distances  ), but we're going to relegate to the unders, as Cancel has been positively grisly out there this meet.  NOTE: AS OF 10:07, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 4-6-5.


Race 7 1st -Provision 2nd -Ski Patrol 3rd -Cheeky Tico

#3 PROVISION has hit the board but once in his last six pack, but we see that Noda is 3 fer 5 with Aqu. dirt entrants at this level who missed the baccala 31-50 days back & are now dropping in class 50% or more, with the winners returning a healthy $58, $10 & $5. #5 SKI PATROL was a decent runner up in a near identical spot on New Year's Eve, but before we go further, we need to let you know that there was a claim voided that day, so be sure to take a looksie in the paddock. Anyhoo, it's encouraging to see that Atras is a whopping 9-16 with Ozone Park based male critters at this level off sabbaticals of 34-46 days. There's a $3.04 ROI in that regards, along with a sub category of 2 for 3 w/today's captain. #8 CHEEKY TICO may plod along for a slice of pie. 


Race 8 1st -Lucency 2nd -Narciso Dali  3rd -Allaboutthemoney

#6 LUCENCY put it all together with a snappy diploma earning performance three dozen days in the rear, and is the meekest of selections in an affair that's difficult to decipher. #3 NARCISO DALI ( Out of 'Salvadoria' -- ya get it ? ) has dome some nice work since early November, and Papa Englehart is a solid 3 for 10 with those fitting today's criteria ( 19-1 or beneath ), with mutuels of $33, $12 & $5. #5 ALLABOUTTHEMONEY enters today off a lifetime best Beyer for a wet track, and if you were to prorate it for his best over a track marked "Fast", what you have is a number that would supersede much of what the others can put up. Big shot in what we consider to be a drop in class. 


Race 9 1st -Spiked 2nd -Portage 3rd -Saddle Up Jessie

#8 SPIKED hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but is two of two off the pine, over a quick track, and is a factor if sound and fully cranked up. #3 PORTAGE displayed a bit of a "Z" pattern when returning to show off a 4 month break in the action, and the only other time this lightly raced mare was in a second off the shelf scenario, there was some big time improvement in the BSF area, as this lady hung up a nice # at 25-1. #7 SADDLE UP JESSIE has been a completely different animal since finalizing her transition to the brown stuff, and exits an affair where the sole returnee came back victorious; race goes through her. 


Race 10 1st -Elite Status 2nd -Book of Wisdom 3rd -Apollonia C

#5 ELITE STATUS outran her odds in a big way when closing out the triple at 20-1 in the Stallion Series event back in mid December, and has the miracle drug added off that performance. 16% outfit is a "Terra" with dirt horsies getting "The Big L" off L/O's of 51-61 days @ 4-1 or lowah, as they're 11:4-5-0-1 with that sort. #2 BOOK OF WISDOM has hit the board in five of six, and is in a "second time Lasix/first time blinkers" scenario. Tough to dismiss. #4 APOLLONIA C fared well when debuting on Friday, January 14th, and may do even better on "Saturday, Saturday". 


Aqueduct 32-157 ( $275.90 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-7 ( 14.3% ) Favorite's Win % 49-157 ( 31.2% )( As of Saturday morning )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )  Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)

Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout


As a character on Esquire's reality show "Horseplayers" and throughout the National Handicappers Tour where ranked third nationally in 2013, Kevin is known as a "numbers cruncher". He combines his own interpretation of standard Beyer speed figures, with a desire for seeking hidden form and generous odds in his selections. From April 29th, 2016 to March 31st, 2017 over a span of 1,920 consecutive races Kevin amazingly showed a flat bet profit! Kevin's daily analysis has shown a positive ROI for seventeen meets!