Just a pair of chalky winners on a day laden with the stuff, as we maintain our 25 for 69 clip.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4  - #4 April Antics  Race 5 - #5 Majority Partner  Race 9 - #1A Musical Heart

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/19 - Happy Saint Joseph's Day


Race  1

1.Giggling Ghost

2.Baby Sox

3.Jersey Coast

#5 GIGGLING GHOST hasn't faced the starter in more than seven flips of the calendar, but posted back to back career best numeros before the sabbatical, and as this one is just about equally bred for the brown as the green, perhaps he can transfer those turf numbers over to the main -- IF sound & fully cranked up. Jackie gave this one a decent ride at boxcar odds way back when, so perhaps they can perform some magic today. #2 BABY SOX has hit the superfecta in both starts to date, and like so many Linda Rice runners, is dropped in class after the purchase. Blinkers are also left in the tack room for a runner catching a glib surface for the 1st time. #1 JERSEY COAST finds herself at an all time low in today's 2nd start off the pine, and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman. 


Race  2



3.Cousin Andrew

#1 TURNSANDCONDITIONS displayed a baby "Z" pattern when showing vs. slightly tougher last Saturday, and outran his 28-1 offering in doing such. Low percentage trainer & jockey excel together, as they are currently on a 4 for 8 run with dirt dashers who hit the board last time out ( any tag ) at 30-1 or less, and the payoffs were a robust $24, $26, $62 & $8. #2 CHARGER has hit the board in three straight, and who are we to rock that boat ?  #5 COUSIN ANDREW was ambitiously hiked up in class off the claim -- despite being out of jail -- and after the poor effort, is dropped back down to the purchase price ( and 3rd place finish ) this afternoon. May land a share.   NOTE: AS OF 9:46 P.M. SATURDAY NIGHT, #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  3

1.Granny's Connection

2.Thinking It Over

3.Starship Laoban 

#4 GRANNY'S CONNECTION all the way. #2 THINKING IT OVER hasn't been in action since mid October, but put forth a nice effort in her sole start off a break in the action, and is reunited with a pilot that he's had solid success with. Worktab signals readiness. #3 STARSHIP LAOBAN has been a gem of consistency throughout her career ( 11:4-5-1-1 ), and that includes a placing the only time she visited Ozone Park. Completely sensible unders candidate. 


Race  4

1.Bravo Regina


3.Caribbean Breeze 

#8 BRAVO REGINA didn't show much when returning off nearly a four month sabbatical, and is dropped down in class for today's second off the shelf engagement. Best work has come at today's distance of ground ( 8:1-1-2, compared to being 20:0-4-1 otherwise ), and Trevor won with his only mount for this clan back on the 3rd ( $23 ). Meek choice in a heat with no first draft eliminations. #7 FREUDIAN was a well beaten but decently clear runner up at this level 23 days in the rear and is logical once again. #6 CARIBBEAN BREEZE has been beset by successive L/O lines, but scored after the first one, and it happened to come right here. This is another Rice runner dropped in class after being bought, and the connections stand to lose approximately 12K with a win & another claim here, so it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 APRIL ANTICS fills the bill, as barn is 1-13 in all relevant categories. 


Race  5

1.Handsome Cat


3.Trash Talker

#2 HANDSOME CAT missed by only a noggin vs. this sort on the 4th, and aside from having done his best work at today's dx. ( 11:4-2-2 in comparison to having a 19:0-2-1 ledger at other distances of ground ), and from a Formulator P.O.V., barn has won with half of their six dirt dashers at this level and locale, who were ITM < a month ago @ 8-1 or undah ( $6 x 2 & $7 ). #4 PRISONER shoots for the hat trick in this spot, and as he's bested what we feel to be tougher groupings in the last pair, right from the start, we're seeing it as quite feasible. From a trainer stat aspect, Charlie is a Good and Plenty 6-15 with runners of this ilk who were victorious less than three fortnights back ( 12-1 or below ), with mutuels of $15, $4, $9, $8 & $7 x 2. #6 TRASH TALKER rounds out the top three.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 MAJORITY PARTNER fills the bill, as barn is 1-11 in all relevant categories.


Race  6

1.Miss You Ajax

2.Valenzan Day


#4 MISS YOU AJAX was in the rear with the gear vs. a bit steeper down in Maryland four weeks back, but got smacked around a bit at the onset that day, and went from a 33 to a 42 in his two starts before such ( a 3rd & a win ). Would need to step up his game a bit, but as there aren't any worldbeaters entered, so we'll take a shot. #3 VALENZAN DAY ( foaled February 14th -- ya get it ? ) has shown little heart in the last duet, but was doing decent things prior to that, and jock stays aboard despite the flopola. #1 THUNDERIAN has received the unkindest cut of all since last in action 3 1/2 months back, and is also up for grabs for the first time. Question marks abound, but we'll toss in for his primary dirt deal. 


Race  7

1.King Kumbalay

2.Bourbon Calling

3.Market Alert

#2 KING KUMBALAY just missed in this race at 11-1 27 days ago, and game gelding has done some nice work at today's dist. ( 6:2-3-0 ), as well as having placed in his sole "3rd off the respite" affair. Add in to this, is the fact that Double D is 8:4-2-1 with AQU based optional sand sprinters who crashed the fiesta 1-50 days back & are 23-1 or beneath ( $5, $6 & $7 x 2 ). #3 BOURBON CALLING won this race when last seen, so why not again ?  #1 MARKET ALERT takes the mandatory step up after being snagged for a nice chunk'a change, and given the speed figure garnered that day, ain't hopeless. 


Race  8

1.Bobby Ride

2.D'ont Lose Cruz 

3.What's Up Bro

#6 BOBBY RIDE was a visually impressive victor when seen last, back in the summer, but something clearly went wrong after a breeze 10 days later, as he hasn't been seen since. There's some light her, however, as Grusmark is 8 for 20 with dirt equines off 167 days or more & 13-1 or less ( $2.61 R.O.I. ) with a sub category of three fer five when Jackie gets on ( $9 & $5 x 2 ). Note the lone tally came when loading last. #5 D'ONT LOSE CRUZ has yet to miss a super, but faded in the most recent, so we'll keep beneath. #1 WHAT'S UP BRO has won two of his last three and owns the ability to rate or send a bit. 


Race  9

1.Irish Honor

2.Bourbon Bay


#5 IRISH HONOR was a well beaten third when tangling with 25K foes on 2/11, and after being claimed that day, was kept in prison & is now eligible to be dropped in class ( which he is ). New shotcaller is a snazzy 13 for 31 with FTC sand sprinters who were 1-2-3 22 to 50 days ago in this odds range, and the return on investment for that survey was a fat $2.61. #8 BOURBON BAY was eased last time out, and because of such, had to work out for the state vet since. That being said, this one's best work has come at today's trip, and has been ITM in both attempts at this level. Jacobsen sure has performed some "magic" with #1 O'TROUBLE since claiming him for a quarter three back, as he's rung up two wins in as many starts -- one of them a five length hand ride for 40 big ones. There was a claim voided in that last tally, so caveat emptor.  NOTE: AS OF 12:12, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, #6 WILL BE OUR TOP SELECTION, AND #1A WILL BE A BEATABLE FAVORITE. 

Aqueduct            ( Current ):   86-334  ( $560.50 )   Beatable  Favorites: 7-14 ( 50% )  Favorites Win %:    125-334 ( 37.4% )( As of Sunday Morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ):      0-6       ( $0 )          Beatable  Favorites:  N/A               Favorites Win %:      0-6        ( 0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2022 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3564-17968 ($30,467.70)  Beatable Favorites : 425-1575( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 6773-18041( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3648-18596  ( $31,280.20 )Beatable Favorites : 440-1641( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 6783-18285 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout