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Profitable pair on a mness of a day yesterday.  


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 7/3

 

Race  1

1.Angeloverthepulpit

2.Mondeuse

3.Bella Principessa

These three and no more to start out the day's opener.  #6 ANGELOVERTHEPULPIT steadied a bit at the onset when starting things out on the main, and trailed throughout that day at a zillion to one. Filly switches surfaces today, and it's encouraging to see that the lone sibling who went long on the lawn, finished 2nd in one of two tries doing such. Jock has popped with a couple of decently priced winners recently, and we'll take a swing at a big numbah. #3 MONDEUSE has hit the board in four straight, appears to be the clear speed of this deal, slides in to the pine, and it's her race to lose. #1 BELLA PRINCIPESSA has improved with each passing start and gets some improvement in the saddle today.  OFF TURF: 3-5-8-7-1  NOTE: AS OF 10:32, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-10-2B.  NOTE: AS OF 12:14, DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH, #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  NOTE: AS OF 12:57, AFTER A LATE, LATE SCRATCH, THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. DUE TO SCRATCHES, OUR SELECYIONS WILL BE 2-8-7.

 

Race  2

1.Bolgheri

2.Daggerboard

3.Capt' Remington

#8 BOLGHERI has been in the back half of the field in all three starts thus far, but finds himself at his lowest level to date, and could perk up in the third off the layoff jammie. Mild choice. You can fee free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the starts of #5 DAGGERBOARD, as this one seems to be figuring it out as he goes along, and brings along back to back placings today -- one of which was in a second off the shelf engagement -- and looms a main threat. #7 CAPT' REMINGTON has an ugly resume', but we always give a runner two chances under a particular set of circumstances before tossing, and this one drops a few pegs for today's second start off the bench.  NOTE: AS OF 10:36, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Devil's Code

2.Bingo John

3.Work Out

#5 DEVIL'S CODE has gone 53-64-84 in his triad of fast track starts thus far, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. Grey chap has fared quite well at Big Sandy, and we're expecting another solid performance in this spot. #6 BINGO JOHN found the line first in his only start when loading last, and is reunited with a pilot he's had good success with. #3 WORK OUT hasn't been in action since the fall, but was doing increasingly good things back then, and is an obvious factor if sound and fully cranked up.   NOTE: AS OF 10:40, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-3-4.

 

Race  4 

1.Whichwaytomalibu

2.Combat Ribbon

3.Macho Boy

#1 WHICHWAYTOMALIBU is a bit of an in and outer, but had a boatload of trouble in the most recent, and overcame such to complete the triple beneath today's pilot. This one's got a lot of wood to chop to get back that $200,000 purchase price, but we feel today's first try from the pine should aid in recouping some of that. We came thisclose to spotting #6 COMBAT RIBBON up top, but saw the ten pound bug give a fairly weak ride on a 3-2 shot Thursday, and will leave beneath unless we really like the animal. #2 MACHO BOY tried to run sans jockey last time out, but that ain't entirely legal, so gets another shot with Manny Man in the irons. Recognize that the lone win came at this trip and over this strip.   NOTE: AS OF 10:40, DUE TO A WET TRACK, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-6-3.

 

Race  5

1.Halstaat

2.Good Culture

3.Ajhaa

#4 HALSTAAT was a stumblin' and a bumblin' at the beginning of his most recent event, but ended up rallying decently at 76-1 to lose by less than four that day in a respectable effort. "The Fish" -- who normally wins a low percentage of her races -- is a decent two of six when going green to brown with her mid level dirt sprinters at 30-1 or less ( $13 & $8 ). #7 GOOD CULTURE has a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump for the first time, and got his Polaroid taken in his only 1X deal. #2 AJHAR has partaken in the superfecta in seven straight, nine of ten, & is reunited w/ the jock from his last victory; recent claim was voided, so it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock.  NOTE: AS OF 10:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. 

 

Race  6 

1.Emaraaty ( GB )

2.Dreams of Tomorrow

3.Island Commish

#6 EMARAATY (GB) is a lightly raced fragile sort, who has faced the starter but 12 times in her six years on two continents, but brown "horse" ( who still has all his parts ) is 4:2-0-1 off a break in the action ( 1 for 8 otherwise ), and is re-acquainted with blinkers this afternoon. #7 DREAMS OF TOMORROW went from zero to hero when besting A1X foes on the Widener a month & a half back, and Phipps runner is displaying that typical Shug 'progression" over time. Deserving favorite. #4 ISLAND COMMISH has a touch of back class & is a snappy 6:3-0-2 at today's distance of ground. The gorilla in the room are the two poor outings when returning off a respite.  OFF TURF: 7-1-8-6-3  NOTE: AS OF 12:18, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 9-10-14(MTO).

 

Race  7

1.Cause of Action

2.Strolling

3.Storm Advisory 

This troika should suffice for all our wagers.  #1 CAUSE OF ACTION hasn't been over to the frontside in about 3 1 /2 months, but gelding won by a sliver when last made available for purchase ( which also came when breaking from the innermost slot, and is 2:1-0-1 at BEL. Live shot if ready for "action". #3 STROLLING has been a popular item at the claim box, having left forwarding addresses after five of his last seven starts when up for grabs, and takes the mandatory hike today after a win at the $12,500 level a fortnight ago. No worse than 3rd for all you show punters out there. #8 STORM ADVISORY sure is quite the warhorse, heh? Nine year old makes his 80th starts today, and is still finding his way into the winner's circle, having scored in three of his last six. Despite being OUT of jail after the recent barn change, this one is confidently moved up today, and we'd be remiss in excluding.  NOTE: AS OF 12:18, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Munqad

2.Space Launch

3.Founder

Most difficult race of the day here.  #1 MUNQAD merely bested half the field last time out, but was taken extremely wide that day, and may not have dug the yielding going. Factor that in with the first try against winners never being the easiest thing to do, and we can see this one rebounding in today's third start off the L.O, with the best turf rider in the country getting legged up. #7 SPACE LAUNCH has gone up, up the Beyer ladder with each outing ( having never been out of the money ), and while a regression is always feasible in a "second time Lasix" scenario, we'll toss in the hopper. #8 FOUNDER ( just an awful name for a horse ) gets eye cups for ( presumably ) today's initial attempt over firm ground, and 600K purchase would be no surprise.  OFF TURF: 5-2-7-1-1A(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:22, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 9-8-4.

 

Race  9 

1.Viadera ( GB )

2.Piedi Bianchi

3.Princess Grace

#9 VIADERA (GB) is quite an interesting animal, as she's won all five starts at a mile, and not only has accomplished such with small margins of a nose, a neck, a neck, a nose and a half, but has been slightly overlooked in four of them, going off at 5-1 or higher. Need more? Barn is 6:4-1-1with locally based ungraded turf stayers off breaks of 68-298 days ( females ). The mutuels from that survey were $4, $20 & $3 x 2. Looking strong. #4 PIEDI BIANCHI was a crisp runner up when going a bit shorter right here last month, and goes from Franco to Flavian. #3 PRINCESS GRACE is but a half length shy of owning a poyfect four fer four ledger, and has been working extremely well for the comebacker.  OFF TURF:4-7-5(MTO)-6-9  NOTE: AS OF 12:26, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  NOTE: AS OF 12:42, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING OFF THE TURF, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-8-5.

 

Race  10

1.Prioritize

2.Moretti

3.Happy Saver

Truncated but interesting rendition of the Suburban this year, and for some edification on this storied race ( won a record eight times by "Ol' Banana Nose", Eddie Arcaro ), feel free to peruse this link.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suburban_Stakes .  #3 PRIORITIZE ( which reminded me of 'Prioritizer', who raced on this circuit years ago ) was a mite flat in the Pimlico Special, but in all fairness, hadn't been in action in quite some time, and owns a win & a gutsy placing in both "second off the break" dirt forays. As we are always willing to forgive pre & post layoff starts, 6YO had posted back to back career best numeros prior to that, and while they wouldn't be enough to match a top effort by the fave, could cause a ruckus if that one falters. #1 MORETTI got the job done in his only attempt off of this kind of L/O scenario ( on a fast track ), and has fared decently in this zip code & when going in the gate first. We weren't overly impressed with the recent score of #6 HAPPY SAVER, but has won all three starts when making a second left, and there is still plenty of upside here. 

  

Belmont            ( Current ):  61-386     ( $442.50 )  Beatable Favorites    7-25    ( 28% )  Favorites   Win %:    143-386  ( 37% ) ( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )   Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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