SiteLock

KevinCoxItem


Just two winners & a Beatable Favorite yesterday, but one of the scores was our "Play of the Meet", who aired by four. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


of

Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out in these challenging times.

I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, Parler @BrooklynCowboy, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Belmont Park - 7/2

 

Race  1

1.Thisladyis the Law

2.Miss Alex

3.Shining Colors

#5 THISLADYIS THE LAW returned after nine flips of the calendar to beat only a horse & the chase ambulance, but takes the biggest drop in the game this afternoon, and from a small sampling, Weaver is 5:2-1-1 when going green to brown & long to short at this level off breaks of 57 days or less ( $6 & $8 ). #4 MISS ALEX is curiously switched back to the dirt after a career best number on the turf ( with an even more curious ride ), but we'll chunk in because of the placing two back. #1 SHINING COLORS returned off a 15 month hibernation to pick up second place money in a similar spot at the shore, and while a bounce is always possible, we'd be remiss in excluding. 

 

Race  2

1.Distractandattack

2.Mommie's Jewel

3.The Great Gazoo

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #7 DISTRACTANDATTACK ( owned by good guy, Al Gold ) appears to be the clear speed of this deal, and 6th different pilot from as many trips to the track is the meet's leading rider in Irad. The Beyers are most definitely there, and this one should be no worse than 3rd for all you show punters out there. #6 MOMMIE'S JEWEL has yet to miss a superfecta, and that includes a lively showing in his sole "second off the layoff" attempt. Logical in this spot. In honor of our third selection -- #4 THE GREAT GAZOO -- we've included a minute of his best work ( viced by the late, great, Harvey Korman ) right here ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekfR6RKpfmI  As for the horse ( not the alien ), he's up for sale for the 1st time today, and note that the best effort came in a sprint on the sod.  OFF TURF: 1-4-3(MTO)-6-2

 

Race  3

1.Runabout

2.King of American

3.Hooray for Harvey

#5 RUNABOUT has been claimed in every other start over his last septet, and with good reason, too, as this one always seems to give a good account of himself. Game gelding has been kept in jail since being snagged for twenty large on the 22nd of May, and is now halved in price, being out of jail. Did some math here for ya, so you can see what's at stake here. If the trainer is charging a $95 day rate, that comes out to $3,895. Add in about $405 for shoes & vet work to the $20,000 purchase price, and you have $24,300. Now, the winner's share for this race is $15,400. After jock & trainer fees ( $3,080 ), that would leave $12,320 + $10,000 with a win & a ( likely ) claim, which would be a loss of $2,680 for the owner. So either this one is not 100%, or is 100% ready to win, and they're hoping no one drops a slip. Looking string, but caveat emptor. #3 KING OF AMERICAN made us look purdy smart with a 9+ length win back in early March, but after a followup score, the wheels have come off a bit, having only beaten home three over his last half dozen. The adj. figure from two back fits w/ some of these, and we'll chunk in at a price. #4 HOORAY FOR HARVEY as bad as any for the show dough.   NOTE: AS OF 12:32, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Anzio Beach 

2.Beach Front

3.Revenio

#5 ANZIO BEACH flashed some early speed in the most recent, and has the hood added while getting in with a feather. Could go all the way if able to break on top & set some easy splits. #3 BEACH FRONT ( who has recently been removed from the Linda Rice barn ) appears to be the mainger danger to the above based on the Beyer earned last time out & his overall body of work. Note that the one who finished directly ahead of 'Front in the most recent got the job done when next seen, improving in the BSF dept. by about 5.6%. #1 REVENIO is two of four at today's distance of ground, and oh-fer-19 @ other trips; that's enough reason to include. 

 

Race  5

1.Heart of Savino

2.No Time Alone

3.Surprise Boss

#5 HEART OF SAVINO faded at the top of the lane when starting things out right here a half'a month back, but switches to the gramma today, and this one's siblings have gone 8:1-3-1 in turf sprints, banking more than 35 big ones. Price play in a wide open deal. #4 NO TIME ALONE trailed throughout when starting things out on 5/20, but this type of race is right in Ward's wheelhouse, and Johnny V. gets the call. #3 SURPRISE BOSS was as green as grass in the debut, but ran the last 3/16th's in a decent 17.75 and is better bred for the blades than the sand. Leaving beneath because of the barn's 0-34 & 1-62 mark on this circuit.  OFF TURF: 10-2-8-1-9  NOTE: AS OF 12:36, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 9-5-2.

 

Race  6 

1.Epona's Dream

2.Dancing Firefly 

3.Caumsett

Another heat where our listed troika should suffice.  #3 EPONA'S DREAM has gone 50-57-63 on the turf thus far, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards, and may keep improving in today's third off the layoff scenario. #2 DANCING FIREFLY was a gamely and decently clear runner up right outta the box for Gargan, and after the snappy effort is protected against the purchase this afternoon. We happen to think she outran her pedigree in a big way that day, so will relegate to the unders. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the turf P.P.'s of #1 CAUMSETT, as this 3YO is improving over time, and will likely be sending from the start.  OFF TURF: 3-9(MTO)-6-(MTO)-2-1

 

Race  7

1.Goldfarb entry

2.Uncle Moonlight

3.Kid Bourbon

Both the #1 F F ROCKET ( Atras 3 for 4 when going T to D with his sprinters who were ITM less than 54 days in the rear -- $7, $8 & $4 ) and #1A BRILLIANT BROOKS ( 3:1-0-1 in Elmont, with the lone tally coming beneath today's pilot ) comprise decent factions of the Goldfarb entry. #3 UNCLE MOONLIGHT comes in today off off of successive career best numeros, and three comebackers from the last have gone 3:1-0-1 in their followups, with an avg. Beyer improvement of 4.2 pts. per. #2 KID BOURBON has partaken in the super both times he's made this surface transition, and Arriaga has won with both allowance dirt starters he's added eye cups to ( $6 & $8 ). 

 

Race  8 

1.Purrageous Dyna 

2.Screamin' By

3.Silky Blue

#2 PURRAGEOUS DYNA has a one for two mark in 3rd off the shelf turf engagements, and also has a fair 5:1-0-1-1 ledger on the Widener. Mild choice. #1 SCREAMIN' BY is on a nice 6:2-0-3 run on the green stuff, and while we're not quite sure what it will take to get this one over the top after a troika of showings, but has to be given a shot, ya know? #3 SILKY BLUE gave the late fade at 3-2 with no palpable excuse 22 days in the rear, but filly fared well in her duet prior to the disappointment and we'll accord her a chance to make amends. OFF TURF: 11-10(MTO)1-9-6  NOTE: AS OF 12:40, DUE TO YWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 8 & 6 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTFULLY. 

 

Race  9 

1.Ghost Giant

2.Klickitat

3.Good Old Boy

#5 GHOST GIANT won in going away fashion when facing what we would consider to be a slightly tougher allotment about three weeks ago, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for all his efforts. Barn an igloo these days, but we see a repeat as being well within reach. #8 KLICKITAT is a bit of a nibbler by nature ( 15:2-7-1 ), but got his photograph taken one of the two times he was in a second off the layoff spot, and just missed in his first spin on the Inner. Chestnut chap should be in the thick of things turning for home. #7 GOOD OLD BOY has a 4:2-0-1-1 boxscore in third off the pine jammies, and is on a 6:3-2-1 when up for sale.  OFF TURF: 8-13(MTO)-1-9-3

 

Belmont            ( Current ):  59-377     ( $422.80 )  Beatable Favorites    7-25    ( 28% )  Favorites   Win %:    139-377  ( 36.9% ) ( As of Friday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )   Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


coxbel2019