SiteLock

KevinCoxItem


From "Daddy's Kid" ( of course ) to "Bar Fourteen" ( and 2,998 in between ), Sunday's second score gives us 3,000 wins right here. From even money shots to a $206 winner, we've tried to keep it interesting along the way, and thank you for your support !

Now....on to 4,000 !! 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #2 Tenderness


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


of

Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out in these challenging times.

I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, Parler @BrooklynCowboy, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Belmont Park - 7/1 - 3,000 winners & counting !!

 

Race  1

1.Lovely Lady Lexi

2.Mongolian Humor

3.Awesome Alana

On our first draft of this truncated opener, we were only able to lop off but one of the quintet signed on, and from that grouping, three have decent DRF Formulator stats, so let's get right to 'em. #5 LOVELY LADY LEXI will be led over by a 10% shotcaller who's 4:3-1-0 with second off the claim mid level dirt stock who were in the money less than three fortnights ago at 9-1 or less ( $5 x 2 & $6 ). #3 MONGOLIAN HUMOR ( who has never seen these depths ) is conditioned by a 6% hombre who's a crisp three for six when dropping his dirt stock 50% or more that missed the money 1-12 days ago & are 33-1 or undah ( $37, $8 & $5 ). #1 AWESOME ALANA: Friedman ( 7% day to day ) is 3 of 12 with locally based mid level dirt stock who missed the $ off of this kind of break that are 30-1 or beneath, and just look at these prices ( $60, $44 & $28 ). 

 

Race  2

1.Masked Marauder

2.Spiritual King

3.Voliero

#8 MASKED MARAUDER only bested the chase ambulance when returning off an elongated absence, but gelding was a bit tardy to the party that day, and now takes the biggest drop in the game while receiving Lasix for the first time. Three year old hit the board in both turf tries last year and can cause a ruckus if sound & fully cranked up. #6 SPIRITUAL KING has a fair amount of early zip and can land a share. #4 VOLIERO was a lively runner up in this race three weeks back, and has the best overall body of work in the field; must include.  OFF TURF: 11(MTO)-5-3-6-2

 

Race  3

1.Extra Effort

2.Tenderness

3.Sky Kitten

We're seeing this race as easy as 1-2-3. #1 EXTRA EFFORT has an adjusted last race figure from the most recent that supersedes anything that any other runner has done in their most recent troika. We dig that Barrera confidently hikes this one in class after the purchase, despite being out of jail by one day. Down the lane. BEATABLE FAVORITE/SECOND CHOICE: #2 TENDERNESS not only comes in today off a local win, but also found the line first the only time she was in a second off the layoff scenario. Front wraps were added in the most recent, so it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock. #3 SKY KITTEN has been a part of the superfecta in all three turf to dirt engagements and could spice things up a tad beneath.  DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.More Like It

2.K.K. Ichikawa

3.Public Information

#6 MORE LIKE IT hasn't shown much in the recent pair, but is made available for purchase this afternoon, and the last time that happened, a head loss ( at 11-1 ) directly in front of a next out winner was the end result. A small drawback tho, is that Saez gets the call, and he's been in a bit of poor form of late. Mild choice. #8 K.K. ICHIKAWA merely split the field when returning off a "half'a calendar" sabbatical, but may have needed that, and gets some tremendous improvement in the jockey dept. today while having blinkers added for the 1st time. Expecting some improvement with this one. #1 PUBLIC INFORMATION has shown improvement with each passing start, culminating with a maiden breaking tally on this course at the end of April, and who knows where this one's ceiling is.  OFF TURF: 9(MTO)-5-4(MTO)-10-8

 

Race  5

1.Darn That Song

2.Helens Spirit

3.Sweet Sugar Baby

#6 DARN THAT SONG broke slowly in the Philadelphia Park bow last week, but overcame such to complete the triple at 11-1, and is smartly spotted with state breds this afternoon, in search of a much larger pot. The Tomlinson figures for the trip tell us that the BSF garnered that day was likely not an aberration, and being that most of the other Tommys are similar or lower, we'll go with the proven runner as our top choice -- despite a 3% jock at the helm. #1 HELENS SPIRIT begins her working life this afternoon, and does such with a nicely hidden bullet breeze a month back, as well as a crisp gate move on the training track last Thursday. Tough post for a firster, so will need to be engaged early on. #5 SWEET SUGAR BABY hasn't displayed much in the A.M.'s for today's first trip to the frontside, and as those works have been in Canandaigua County, it's at least a bit intriguing to see this one entered here, when there must have been softer options up north. 

 

Race  6 

1.Evidence Based

2.Exotic Cat

3.Know How ( GB )

#8 EVIDENCE BASED was in the rear with the gear when debuting down in Louisville back in Mid May, but the figaro earned that day was solid enough, and takes a substantial drop in class while having the hood affixed for the first time. January foal has a maturity edge over all but one in here, and the aforementioned heat has proven to be an uuber key one, as eight returnees from that affair have amassed a cumulative 8:4-2-0 in their followup ( seven different ) affairs. When you look at the chart from that day, you'll see that the flow of the race gave this one no shot whatsoever: The winner went all the way...the place horse was second all the way...the show horse & the fourth place horse were never worse than 3rd of 4th at any point in the race...and the rest of the field was never more than 1 or 2 spots behind their finishing position at any point of call. But wait -- there's more !  Brown ( 25% ) is a snappy 6 fer 16 when giving his second timers on the lawn the biggest drop in the biz who were OTB first time out, and he's 5-12 ( 43% ) w/ those 3 & up ( $6 x 3, $5 & $4 ). Play of the meet. #2 EXOTIC CAT outran her near 100-1 offering when finishing 6th of 11 last out, & could perk up on the cutback. #7 KNOW HOW (GB) has a "For Sale" sticker attched to her rump this afternoon, and is 3rd off the shelf.  OFF TURF: 1-3-6-2-8

 

Race  7

1.Clench

2.Town Classic

3.Mi Tred Por Ciento ( Chi )

These three & no more for all our rolling action.  #5 CLENCH takes the mandatory hike after being snagged for 40 large on the 6th of June, and popular item at the claim box ( who has had to change addresses after six of his last nine ) is 3 for 6 on Big Sandy, in comparison to being 3 for 22 elsewhere. #6 TOWN CLASSIC is the quintessential "nibbler", as the 50:6-20-11-7 lifetime mark belies, and given the 13 consecutive superfecta finishes, we have no qualms about leaving beneath once again. #2 MI TRES POR CIENTO (CHI) hasn't faced the gate since the day before St. Valentine's Day, but chestnut chap has a crisp 4:3-0-1 when returning off a "true" layoff ( where the jock stayed aboard ) and owns an excellent overall "declining" record. 

 

Race  8 

1.Pure Bode

2.Spungie

3.Pandamom

#5 PURE BODE hasn't been in action since the winter, but filly has done some decent work on the gramma, and the adj. numbers from last year would fit well with these -- IF 100% ready. #4 SPUNGIE comes in  today off a career best numbah ( when placing directly behind a next out victress, and will likely be a deserving fave in this spot. #3 PANDAMOM was a snappy runner up in her sole third off the layoff jammie ( @ 18-1 ) and got her Polaroid taken in her only ( firm ) start on the ITC.  OFF TURF: 5-3-4-2-8

 

Race  9 

1.Prince of Caps

2.Centurion

3.Bail Out

#7 PRINCE OF CAPS has a decent overall body of work & rates a slight edge in the nitecap. #3 CENTURION has done little wrong in 2021, and fragile sort gave a good account of himself in his lone 1X to 2X heat. Should be right there late in the game. #6 BAIL OUT is rapidly approaching professional maiden territory, but given the last out placing, should probably be left in the hopper.  OFF TURF: 2-4-6-8

 

Belmont            ( Current ):  59-377     ( $425.20 )  Beatable Favorites    7-24  ( 29.2% ) Favorites   Win %:    137-377  ( 36.3% )  

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )   Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


coxbel2019