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Profitable pair of winners AND a pair of successful Beatable Favorites here yesterday, as we inch closer to 3,000 wins !! 

Would like to thank John Hernandez & everyone else at Prairie Meadows for their hospitality yesterday. Enjoyed doing race analysis for two races & hope to be back soon !


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 6/26 - 2,996 wins for us here...and counting...

 

Race  1

1.Perpetual Change 

2.Ghostmon

3.Hurricane Andrew

#3 PERPETUAL CHANGE nearly went from zero to hero when rallying from 9th at the halfway point in the debut to finish 2nd by less than a length at 14-1. Two year old was given the winter ( and a good chunk of the spring ) off, and after showing zilch in the comebacker, is now made available for purchase for the first time. Lasix a part of the equation these days, and we'll give her a chance to make amends. #6 GHOSTMON has the best overall body of work in the field, and definitely deserves your respect in this spot. #2 HURRICANE ANDREW has nearly blown up the tote board in two of his last three, having the lead late in the game before finishing third at 92-1 & 56-1. Factor if able to shake free early on.  OFF TURF: 2-4-6-1-5

 

Race  2

1.Winter Son

2.Life Is Great

3.Carpe All Day

#2 WINTER SON got smacked around at the onset & had to slam on the breaks on the turn in an inauspicious beginning to his career down at CD on the seventh of May, but given the bloodlines ( 366 Tomlinson ), the trainer's success with 2TS'ers at this level in dirt dashes@ < 40-1 ( just about 25% ), and a field full of question marks, we're willing to take a swing at what will likely be big odds. #3 LIFE IS GREAT hasn't shown much in the morning's for today's curtain rising, but is a half to Sadie Ladie who is 13:6-1-1 on a glib surface ( $290K ), including a win here a dozen days back. #5 CARPE ALL DAY on the other hand, has been working lights out for the bow & could be any kind.

 

Race  3

1.Shesalittleedgy

2.Stunning Munnings

3.Cadeau de Paix

#5 SHESALITTLEEDGY is a very consistent sort, as she's partaken in the super in her last seven trips to the frontside, and accomplished such under a myriad of circumstances. Gal was well clear of the show horse in a near identical spot last time out, and should be right there once again. #7 STUNNING MUNNINGS outran her odds with a 4th place finish at 71-1, and on the whole has fared decently at this trip & strip. You may get some hidden value with this one. #3 CADEAU DE PAIX has had herself a decent year thus far, but we're not sure what to glean from the recent speed figure, so will leave beneath. 

 

Race  4 

1.Fox Red

2.Vici

3.Aristocratic

#7 FOX RED may prove to be a nice claim bu Jimmy Ferraro, as $25,000 purchase has been in the money 10 of his last 11 starts, and has also amassed a nice boxscore at Big Sandy and going 3/4's. Pre purchase pilot returns -- which is something we always dig, and of course, we like the slot. #2 VICI had his claim voided after the recent score, and today's surface switch shouldn't be too much of an issue, given the similar BSF's on both surfaces. The gorilla in the room is the fact that this one's claim claim was voided in the mentioned win, so it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock. #1 ARISTOCRATIC has a bunch of early zip, but we can't tell you the last time this jockey found his way into the winner's circle, so we'll relegate to the "unders".

 

Race  5

1.Jill's a Hot Mess

2.Entwine ( Ire ) 

3.Lilly Simone

#4 JILL'S A HOT MESS was claimed out of a winning effort in  her first time skipping over the blades 20 days back, and that result was a prime example of how in all the types of races, turf sprints is one where breeding is the least important, as quite often, speed can carry a runner a long way in these events. Three year old takes the obligatory hike in class today, and lures one of -- if not THE best turf rider in the country in Prat. Factor right back. #3 ENTWINE (IRE) ( by 'Interlacing' -- ya get it ? ) was stepped up the ladder after being purchased two starts ago, and given the stiffness of the competition, the result was pretty much what you might expect. Irish bred cuts back to a sprint in this spot, and was one for two ( on straightaways ) doing such back home; gal is kept above the price claimed, which is good, but the barn is an igloo, which is bad. #5 LILLY SIMONE has gone 56-65-74 in all her firm ground turf dashes to date, with the lattermost being a maiden breaker on the Inner. Who knows where her ceiling is in this regards.  OFF TURF: 6-4-2-1(MTO)-10  NOTE: AS OF 11:18, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 2 & 10 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race  6 

1.Myawaya

2.Riding On a Winner

3.Baba

#4 MYAWAYA hasn't seen the scene in a couple'a Saint Patrick's days, but Pletcher charge is 2:1-1-0 off a break in the action, as trainer knows to have them ready for the comebackers. Recognize that this clan has a crisp 10 for 27 mark when putting his dirt sprinters up for sale for the first time off breaks of more than 51 days on this circuit. #6 RIDING ON A WINNER flopped in her first swing against winners on the 22nd of May, but is back in the claiming ranks again and gets the wonder drug for the first time. #9 BABA was a gamely runner up at this level 44 days in the rear, and having been kept in jail since being snagged that day, is brought right back at the very same level; logical.

 

Race  7

1.Rockemperor ( Ire )

2.Journeyman

3.Dynadrive

#3 ROCKEMPEROR (IRE) has a boatload of back class & fits into this condition perfectly for today's primary "third off the L/O" engagement foray. Looks like Brown is endeavoring to give this one some confidence to get him back on track, and being put of stakes company, is new once again in receipt pf the big "L'. Will take some pounding at the windows. #6 JOURNEYMAN is just that, having started at six different venues in 13 trips to the track, and returned off an elongated absence to lose by just over a length on the 5th; eligible to improve off that effort. #5 DYNADRIVE is one of two here & seems to have a nose for the line.  OFF TURF: 2-7-10-8-1

 

Race  8 

1.Make Mischief

2.Always Carina

3.Clairiere

Featured race of the day is upon us, and for some history on the Mother Goose ( won 49 years ago by Hall of Famer 'Cicada', which is only fitting, in the year of the Cicada ), please go to this website https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mother_Goose_Stakes . #1 MAKE MISCHIEF has displayed steady improvement over her last quintet, and outran her 21-1+ offering in her last two ( the most recent of which was showing right here ). Gal has hit the board in all three starts when breaking from the pine, and last win came underneath Cancel. Just may sit a cozy trip in this truncated allotment. #2 ALWAYS CARINA has gone coast to coast like butter and toast in both trips to the post, and could be a ghost if able to break better than most. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the speed figures of #3 CLARIERE, as this one has gotten better & better, and classy sort secure the leading rider for her New York debut.

 

Race  9 

1.Alda

2.Bye Bye

3.Nevisian Sunrise

#1 ALDA M*A*S*H*E*D the competition down at the Old Hilltop when rallying from 8+ lengths at the quarter to win in an identical spot about six weeks ago, and while a bounce is always possible in a second time Lasix scenario, we're seeing a repeat as being quite doable for today's third start off the pine -- especially as she got her photo taken in her only start on the Widener when going over firm ground. #7 BYE BYE said just that to the rest of the field when winning her second turf start in as many tries in mid May, and although we don't like when jockeys get the boot after a score, we're thinking it was a "one shot deal", as barn's go-to-rider Rosario is aboard today. #4 NEVISIAN SUNRISE has yet to miss an exacta and sheds 64 ounces off a solid placing.  OFF TURF: 4-6-2-1-3

 

Race  10

1.So Enchanting

2.Candy Jar

3.Dame Time

#9 SO ENCHANTING has burned some baccala when placing in both starts last year, but those events have yielded five next out winners from 14 different events, and surprise, surprise -- new sophomore is now in need of Lasix for the 1st time. #6 CANDY JAR has yet to miss a superfecta and gets Junior back in the stirrups ( 4:M-3-0-1 in tandem ). #7 DAME TIME overcame some greenness in the overture to secure 12% of the money when beginning her working life in an off the turf event, and as we see this one being equally -- if not better -- bred for the green stuff, another showing ( at least ) can be within her grasp.  OFF TURF: 4-1-5-9-6

  

Belmont            ( Current ):  55-358     ( $403.20 )  Beatable Favorites    7-24  ( 29.2% ) Favorites   Win %:    132-358  ( 36.9% ) ( As of Saturday morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )   Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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