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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #2 Multiple Expansion  Race 5 - #2 Primary Colors  Race 6 - #11 Kreesa La Wrote


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 6/25 - 2,994 wins for us & counting...

 

Race  1

1.Action Potential

2.Miss interpret

3.Interstatedaydream

These three and no more for all our rolling action to start out the traditional Early Daily Double. #1 ACTION POTENTIAL has yet to finish out of the superfecta ( which includes a decent showing right here, beneath today's pilot ), and 15% shedrow is a jazzy 12 for 27 ( 44% ) with two year old maiden special weight dirt dashers off breaks of less than two fortnights < 4-1 ( fillies ). The R.O I. for that study is $2.42, and there ain't no world beaters signed on. Solid show wager for those inclined to do such. #6 MISS INTERPRET bested half the field first time out and goes inside to outside today. Logical inclusion. #5 INTERSTATEDAYDREAM has a best of 117 gate move for today's debut and that always merits inclusion. 

 

Race  2

1.Second Fortune

2.Flipping Fun

3.Multiple Expansion

Solid 1-2 punch here, and we'll side with the #8 SECOND FORTUNE. Four year old outran his odds when completing the exacta in this very same race back in Mid May, so right off the bat, he needs to be included because of such. Aside from that, we've unearthed a tight DRF Formulator stat for 7% Dunham, as the elder statesman has a 4:3-0-1 mark with dirt stock who crashed the party 34-50 days in the rear, and the payouts for that sampling were $6, $8 & $13. #3 FLIPPING FUN appears to be the only one signed on with a chance of upsetting the above, based on the last two speed figures, and can improve on those with a cleaner onset. BEATABLE FAVORITE/THIRD CHOICE: #2 MULTIPLE EXPANSION rounds out the top three.  NOTE: AS OF 11:17, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.So Darn Hot

2.Subsidiary

3.Malibu Curl

#6 SO DARN HOT ( Dig it ) is 3:1-1-0 going one turn on the sand, and said tally came over this oval. When it comes to his stock cutting back while going green to brown at 27-1 or less ( lower than 16 days ), Weaver is a dreamy 5:3-0-2, w/ the winners coming back $8, $7 & $6. #2 SUBSIDIARY was in the rear with the gear with no palpable excuse a baker's dozen days ago, but we're all allowed our off days, and this one was in some pretty good form just prior to that. HUUUUUUUUUGE jockey upgrade in play today. #5 MALIBU CURL is second off the shelf & can grab a check for a frigid barn. 

 

Race  4 

1.Holy Emperor

2.Subsidize

3.Knockout Punch 

#3 HOLY EMPEROR faded after a half when facing victors ( "What's our vector, victor?" ) for the for the first time, but that's not an easy jump, and we're encouraged to see that Irad ( who was aboard for the tally just prior to that ) returns. From a trainer perspective, Sharp is just that with his second off the snag sprinters on the sod who missed the money 1-23 days back, as he's 5:3-1-0 with that type ( $10, & $6 x 2 ). #8 SUBSIDIZE drops for the 3rd straight time, and pilot from the last win comes back again. #1 KNOCKOUT PUNCH lacked such when last entering the ring, but gets trainer improvement in this spot, and we're expecting a better result.  OFF TURF: 7-4-6-2-1

 

Race  5

1.Repo Rocks 

2.Lemon Drop Road

3.Ghostconqueror 

#1 REPO ROCKS ( cross entered yesterday ) down the lane. #6 LEMONDROP ROAD has gone 62-70-86 in his troika of dirt races less than a mile to date, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. Having said that, blinks are now affixed for the 1st time, and perhaps they were used for that snappy 48 & 1 bullet on the training track. Legit "unders" candidate. #5 GHOSTCONQUEROR has only beaten home the chase ambulance in both starts thus far, but is second time Lasix, and $85,000 bred animal is still kept protected against the claim.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 PRIMARY COLORS, as we like our top choice that much.

 

Race  6 

1.Empress of War

2.Uncle's Gem 

3.Catchulady

#12 EMPRESS OF WAR outran her odds in a big way when finishing a well clear runner up at 30-1 in an off the turf event on Big Sandy, and as this one is a touch better bred for the green than the brown, we're expecting another solid effort -- despite the 3% jock returning. #9 UNCLES GEM is a four year old facing some younger competitors for his career starter, and although the works are just so so, this one was dropped by a dam who was one for five ( with an excellent damsire ), and Uncle Mo on the other side can only help matters as well. #10 CATCHULADY rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 3(MTO)-1(MTO)-2(MTO)-8-6  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #11 KREESA LA WROTE doesn't make our first draft, so why would we take 7/2 ?

 

Race  7

1.Shanghaischool

2.O'Trouble

3.Striking Speed

#6 SHANGHAISCHOOL always seems to give a good account of himself, owns a 5:1-3-0 mark at today's distance of ground, and Pennsylvania pilot comes in for the call. One thing we remembered about Beato when he rode on this circuit for a spell, is that he is pretty good with horses who are forwardly placed. Factor that in with this one's decent early zip, and that the jock has a couple'a dirt winners ( from limited calls ) for this barn -- on speedy types -- and that's enough reason for us to take a swing. #4 O'TROUBLE is back at the level claimed from two back, and gets the meet's leading rider. #1 STRIKING SPEED hasn't faced the starter since December, but fella got his Polaroid taken the only time he had a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump ( on the dirt ), and is an obvious factor if sound and fully cranked up.   NOTE: AS OF 11:21, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Earth Strike ( Ire ) 

2.Third Draft

3.Kitten With a Whip

#1 EARTH STRIKE (IRE) tried to get the job done sans jockey last time out, but that's not entirely legal, so he's reentered in basically the exact same spot in today's feature, and not only gets a jockey change, but one to Rosario. Gal had hit the board in all three North American starts prior to the mishap, so we'll give her a shot to make amends. #4 THIRD DRAFT ( which is what we call this part of our column writing process ) gutsily got through the maiden ranks right here a month and a half back, and consistent gal is eligible to get the repeat today, as once Shug runners figure things out, they usually stay on point. #3 KITTEN WITH A WHIP is 5:3-2-0 this annum, and appears to be a good claim by Sweezey.  OFF TURF: 1-6-2-5-7

 

Race  9 

1.Doctor K

2.Stanhope

3.Much Better

#12 DOCTOR K has not been "Goodenough" over his last duet, losing them both at less than a 2-1 offering. The speed is clearly here, and ( from a limited sampling ), Rudy Rodriguez is two of four when spotting his mid level sprinters on the turf for the first time, with generous payouts of $12 & $16. #8 STANHOPE won at the level just below this a dozen days ago, and while a repeat is definitely doable, keep in mind that this one was wearing blinks for the first time last out, so there's always  chance of a regression. #3 MUCH BETTER hasn't been in action since All Hallows Eve, but 5YO has partaken in the super in all four post layoff deals, and multiple graded placed runner makes her primary foray in the claiming ranks here, and has been gelded since last in action.  OFF TURF: 10-2-8-1-9 

 

Belmont            ( Current ):  53-349     ( $384.70 )  Beatable Favorites    7-22  ( 31.8% ) Favorites   Win %:    130-349  ( 37.3% ) ( As of Friday morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )   Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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