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Less than a month 'til Opening Day at Saratoga ! 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #4 Maiden Beauty  Race 9 - #10 Straight Skinny


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 6/17

 

Race  1

1.Coinage

2.Red Jet

3.Heart of Savino

#6 COINAGE was an hones enough 3rd at first asking, and the figure earned that day ( as well as the Tomlinson figure telling us it was no fluke ), along with a better draw, tells us this one is a solid single for those looking to mingle. #5 RED JET hasn't done much to get the pulse racing in his morning moves for today's bow, but dam was one for three in dirt dashes, sire was two of three doing the same, damsire was 5 of 10 dancing to this music, and there's plenty more where that came from in the family tree. May get overlooked a bit here. #4 HEART OF SAVINO has decent pdigree for the trip and can land a share. 

 

 

Race  2

1.Vip Nation

2.Flashing Red

3.Athwaaq

#9 VIP NATION went coast to coast like butter and toast vs. similar type right here on the 20th of May, and historically, this one owns a win & a placing from as many "3rd off the layoff" tries, so we see her as a main factor once again. #5 FLASHING RED folded up the tent with no palpable excuse about seven weeks back, but outran her 16-1 offering in the start just prior to that, and a heating up Castellano sees fit to stick around. There may be a bit of an overlay with the #2 ATHWAAQ here, given the connections & all, but we'll toss in because of the two triple finishes from as many starts on the gramma.  OFF TURF: 1-5-10-6-3(MTO)

 

Race  3

1.Two Cent Tootsie

2.Dancing Kiki

3.Giacosa

We have three decent sets of DRF Formulator statistics in play here, so let's get to 'em directly.   #6 TWO CENT TOOTSIE: 10% Albertrani is two of seven with second off the layoff optional turf stayers who missed the baccala 16 to 67 days back ( $4 & $9 ) at 39-1 or less, with a sub category of one for two on this course. #1 DANCING KIKI: 9% Ryerson is two fer six when going brown to green with routers who missed the money < five weeks back & are 24-1 or undah ( $10 & $5 ). Recognize that this one is 3:1-1-1 when loading first, compared to being 17:1-2-5 otherwise. #2 GIACOSA: 15% 007 is 4-13 with those going long on the lawn in second off the respite spots who were ITM 15-67 days back& are 15-1 or under ( with a sub category of 2-3 in optional company.  OFF TURF: 5-1-6-3-7

 

 

Race  4 

1.Advance Notice

2.Deputy Flag

3.Benintendi

These three should suffice for all our rolling action.  #1 ADVANCE NOTICE was kept in jail after being claimed by "License revoked/Training on appeal" Linda Rice, and is now brought back at that same level this afternoon. Should be no worse than 3rd here, but the gorilla in the room is the oh-fer-8 mark at 7-2 or lower...SIX of those as the chalk. #2 DEPUTY FLAG comes in today off a dead game 3rd place finish at Philadelphia Park on the 12th of May, and has closed out the exacta in both "second off the bench" jammies. From a trainer's perspective, Rudy Rod is 4-11 with mid level Belmont dirt stock off this kind of break who were 1-2-3 22-50 days back ( $7, $6 & $5 x 2 ). #6 BENINTENDI hasn't been seen since Independence Day, but was a lively runner up in his sole try off a sabbatical, and barn has been quite live @ the stand.   NOTE: AS OF 6:09 P.M. TUESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  5

1.Legit

2.Malibu Pro

3.Mubarmaj

#2 LEGIT came along decently to complete the tri at the level just below this 26 days past, and makes a lot of sense once again. #7 MALIBU PRO has been claimed the last three times when made available for such, and with good reason, too, as this one always gives a good account of himself. Eight year old warhorse digs the trip ( 12:3-2-1 ), but we'll leave beneath the above is the beneficiary of a two lb. & four post swing from this one. #5 MUBARMAJ had his claim voided when last in action ( a rarity for Pletcher ), and now finds himself at his lowest level to date; caveat emptor. 

 

 

Race  6 

1.Black Sand

2.Miss Bonnie T

3.Single Soul ( GB )

#8 BLACK SAND comes in today off a lifetime best effort, drops 32 ounces off said effort, and is in a third off the L/O spot today. That last part is of some relevance, as barn is 4:3-0-1 with that type under these conditions who were in the money 1-55 days ago & are 8-1 or below ( $7, $5 & $3 ). #3 MISS BONNIE T has lost by a neck in four straight, but has ascended the Beyer ladder ever since she began her working life and we'd be remiss in excluding. #1 SINGLE SOUL (GB) hasn't been seen since finishing a nice 3rd back at turkey time, and eight returnees from that heat went 8:2-1-2 in seven followup engagements, and 3YO totes her lightest impost to date while being a recipient of the wonder drug for the first time.  OFF TURF: 3-2-1-6-8

 

Race  7

1.Dublinornothin

2.Rossa Veloce

3.Fair Regis

Another race where our top troika should suffice.   #3 DUBLINORNOTHIN outperformed her parimutual expectations when completing the triple vs. open foes over this oval a baker's dozen days back, and gets a solid jockey upgrade, while toting along a two for five mark at the trip. Should be no worse than third for all you show bettors out there. #1 ROSSA VELOCE appears to be the clear speed of this deal, owns a touch of back class, and has the big "L" placed next to her wight assignment in the P.P.'s for the first time. Pre layoff pilot returns, and this one is an obvious factor if fully cranked up. #5 FAIR REGIS is in extremely sharp form these days, having been in the top two over her last quintet, and that 14:4-5-1 local ledger is nothing to sneeze at.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 MAIDEN BEAUTY ( 0-3 off the bench & 0-3 at the trip ) doesn't make our first cut, so why would we take 8-5 ?

 

 

Race  8 

1.Ice Princess

2.Candy Flower

3.So Darn Hot

#6 ICE PRINCESS hasn't been in action since last March, but grey gal fires well fresh and always seems to give a good account of herself. Lone pairing with Irad ( who returns off a two week visit to the disabled list ) resulted with a snappy runner up in a stakes event up at The Spa. Agents always like getting their riders a win on their first day back, and this could be the one for Ortiz. #1 CANDY FLOWER has led at the top of the lane in seven straight starts where she wasn't interfered with, and you can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the last handful of BSF's, as she's definitely on the improve. #8 SO DARN HOT was a well clear runner up directly behind a next out victress in her one try off a break in the action, and has won one of two in Elmont. 

 

Race  9 

1.Kanithappen 

2.Theitalianamerican

3.Lord Flintshire

#8 KANITHAPPEN by no means disgraced himself when coming back off an elongated absence to close out the super down in Hallandale Beach ( at 33-1 ), ans Hills smartly ships this one from his Monmouth base in order to get some of that New York Bred bread. We're expecting a move forward. #1 THEITALIANAMERICAN ( dig it ) tries the gramma for the 1st time, and may perk up for Broberg, who usually spots them well. #3 LORD FLINTSHIRE has improved with each & every trip to the frontside and would be no shocker in today's finale.  OFF TURF: 8-1-3-9-5  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #10 STRAIGHT SKINNY

  

Belmont            ( Current ):  46-302     ( $325.10 )  Beatable Favorites    7-18  ( 38.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    115-302  ( 38.1% ) ( As of Monday morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )   Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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