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Let's end the week on a good note, shall we?  


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 6/13

 

Race  1

1.Lemon Taffy

2.Scott Alaia

3.Stormi Cat Lady

#4 LEMON TAFFY has hit the board in both starts to date, and runs on her third different track condition today, which shouldn't be too much of an issue, given the healthy Tomlinson for the trip ( 359 ). From a DRF Formulator standpoint, Maker is a crisp 8:3-4-0-1 when going green to brown & long to short with those who crashed the fiesta less than three fortnights ago & are 4-1 or undah. #1 SCOTT ALAIA outran his 20-1 offering when showing in a similar spot back in January, and has blinkers added for today's third start off the layoff. #8 STORMY CAT LADY ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) has been a part of the super in six of seven on the sand, and that's reason enough to include. 

 

Race  2

1.Wicked Happy

2.Gabby Squared

3.Tiz Her Way

#2 WICKED HAPPY owns one of the two best collection of speed figured in the bunch, and has partaken in the superfecta in 13 of 15 career outings, but is beginning to give the impression of becoming that kind of a horse. Should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there, but caveat emptor. #5 GABBY SQUARED will be the only one we'll utilize as an exacta saver over the above, based on the overall body of work, and gets a tremendous rider upgrade while taking the biggest drop in the game this afternoon. #12 TIZ HER WAY has a touch of speed & could spice things up beneath the two faves.  OFF TURF: 2-6-11-1(MTO)-11

 

Race  3

1.Lonesome Fugitive ( Ire )

2.Worth a Shot

3.Mo Faith

#1 LONESOME FUGITIVE (IRE) is a model of consistency who overcame a bunch of trouble to close out the exacta directly in front of a next out winner in his sole "second off the layoff" deal, and loses the blinkers today, which is of some relevance as barn has done well in that regards. #8 WORTH A SHOT shoots for the "three year grand slam" today, as fragile sort has improved over each & every start, and gets some improvement in the stirrups today from when last seen. #7 MO FAITH is another looking to extend his winning streak in this spot, as Breen charge has gutsily won both outings, with those who finished directly behind him getting their photos taken in their subsequent forays.  OFF TURF: 10-3-7-2-4(MTO)

 

Race  4 

1.Apex Predator

2.Scotty

3.Sky Kitten

#2 APEX PREDATOR hasn't done much to get the pulse racing of late, but gelding has done his best work at this distance, and Friedman ( 7% on the norm ) is 3-11 w/locally based mid level dirt stock who missed the board less than 44 days back ( 31-1 or beneath ). The mutuels for that survey were $44, $28 & $62, and we'll need every bit of that morning line offering to be enthused about using Harkie. #4 SCOTTY ( who should be no worse than third for those who play to show ) has ( with the exception of the wet track engagement ) has gotten better and better with each trek to the frontside, culminating with an okay runner up right here a month ago, and makes all kinds of sense. #8 SKY KITTEN drops in class & can land a share. 

 

Race  5

1.Silver Token

2.Knockout Punch

3.Disciplinarian

#4 SILVER TOKEN hasn't been in action since turkey time, but this one has done okay both off the bench & on the Inner. Meeeeeekest of selections in a race with no first draft eliminations. #5 KNOCKOUT PUNCH has never been entered this cheaply, and totes along an honest last race figaro into today's fray. #2 DISCIPLINARIAN as "good" as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 3(MTO)-5-6-11-2

 

Race  6 

1.On the Couch

2.Valmont

3.Discretionary Marq

#2 ON THE COUCH only bested one in the comebacker, but the # garnered that day was legit enough, and the April 18th event has proven to be "Key", as three of five returnees from that affair won their next starts -- and did such from just three different heats. Additionally, there was an avg. BSF improvement of 1.8 pts. per, and despite the jockey being on a 1 for 100 ( at least ) run of late, we feel this one is worth a shot at a price. #5 VALMONT is one of two in 3rd off the layoff jammies & owns a solid two for seven record at today's distance of ground. #1 DISCRETIONARY MARQ possesses a nice 5:2-1-0 ledger on this course and is also one fer two when loading first ( with the tally not overlapping with the other stat ). Stalker will need to work out a pocket trip from today's innermost slot.  OFF TURF: 2-1-4-6-9

 

Race  7

1.Caramocha

2.Hollywood Gina

3.Master of Hope

#6 CARAMOCHA was a smart victress in going away fashion when facing weaker last time out, and while this one is moving up the ladder AND packing six more pounds, there are no world beaters signed on, and perhaps the recent confidence boost carries over. #3 HOLLYWOOD GINA has been beset by back to back L/O lines, but won in impressive fashion back in February, and has been working decently for the return. #5 MASTER OF HOPE overcame a boatload of trouble to win for the second time in three outings, and ended up in a different barn afterwards for all her efforts. Gal will need to step up his game a bit to get the 3rd win, but it's not am impossible task. 

 

Race  8 

1.Jezebel's Kitten

2.Platinum Paynter

3.Kalifornia Queen ( Ger ) 

#4 JEZEBEL'S KITTEN hasn't been in action since a game placing down at Hallandale Beach back in mid February, but pre-layoff Saez comes back ( somethin we always like to see ), and we'll give this one a tepid nod in a race that's difficult to hug. #1 PLATINUM PAYNTER comes in today off of the four best Beyer speed figures in her career ( separated by a layoff ) and is difficult to dismiss. #7 KALIFORNIA QUEEN (GER) gets blinkers & the wonder drug administered for the 1st time this afternoon, and jockey/trainer combo have fared well of late.  OFF TURF: 1-3-7-2-8

 

Race  9 

1.Caribbean Gold

2.Kentucky Knight

3.Welshman

#6 CARIBBEAN GOLD may have needed the last after being shelved for more than nine months, but he by no means disgraced himself that day, when leading most of the way around before settling for 3rd that day. From a limited sampling, Maker is 3 fer 5 with maiden platers who hit the board less than 44 days ago cutting back ( $2, $4 & $8 ), and as of this writing, Saez has a triple on Friday. #1 KENTUCKY KNIGHT "lost action" when last in action, but if you can be forgiving of that, then there's a decent running line just prior, so we'll permit a chance to make amends at double digit odds. #7 WELSHMAN showed improved speed when being put up for sale for the first time, but gave up the ghost rather readily after a half. One more shot with "second time blinkers", but after that...  OFF TURF: 4-5-6-11-2 

 

Belmont            ( Current ):  46-293     ( $325.10 )  Beatable Favorites    7-18  ( 38.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    113-293  ( 40.2% ) ( As of Sunday morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )   Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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