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Nice day for us with the exotics here yesterday with three rolling doubles of $165, $464 & $20 & two rolling pick threes of $651 & $1,144. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 6/4

 

Race  1

1.Flower Point

2.Platinum Paynter

3.My Sweet Wife

#6 FLOWER POINT returned off an elongated absence to split the field against tougher on the inner at the end of April, but two of three returnees from that affair came back to win next time out, and 9th different pilot in 11 trips to the frontside is a goodie in Jose. Slim margin. #2 PLATINUM PAYNTER is an extremely competitive sort who's been a part of the superfecta in her last nonet, and also owns a one for three mark when breaking from the pine. Grab her by the tail to get the glory. #3 MY SWEET WIFE has gone 65-72-80 in her troika of turf outings to date, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. This is another gal who's played musical jockeys since starting things out, and Manny Man may be able to grind out a share here.  OFF TURF: 3-4-5-2-1(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 11:59, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 4MTO)-1(MTO)-6.

 

Race  2

1.Empress of War

2.Little Red Button

3.Strong Moment 

We don't have the best of reads on this race, so tread lightly.  #3 EMPRESS OF WAR has a nicely hidden 3rd best of 32 morning move on the docket for today's overture, and well bred runner is a half to a 7:1-3-1 turfer who banked more than 110 large, and of course, daddy was a goodie on the gramma. Price play. #10 LITTLE RED BUTTON hasn't been in action in quite some time, but has a few nice running lines going over the blades, and J. Ortiz is entice to take the call. #9 STRONG MOMENT was up the track at big odds when starting things out back in January, but has been given some time to sort things out, and could display better with a cleaner onset.  OFF TURF: 7-2-1-9-4(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:03, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 13(MTO)-10-4(MTO).

 

Race  3

1.Trust Our Journey

2.Overbore

3.Little Drama

#4 TRUST OUR JOURNEY went all the way at first asking down at Hallandale Beach on the first of May, and although he may have outran his pedigree a bit that day beneath Bobblehead, there appears to be but one only "need the lead" type signed on, so we'll lean this way because of the higher price. #3 OVERBORE has immolated some baccala in both starts to date, but we like the grittiness shown, and you'd be remiss in leaving out any Ward runner these days. There was LITTLE DRAMA when the #6 destroyed Hagler in the May 16th bout, but it was never truly a fight that day, as this one had a clear lead from the opening bell. Can't tell you when we've seen an Oklahoma bred go for $175,000 at auction, but despite only facing two first out, we'll toss in the mix for today's followup.  NOTE: AS OF 11:04 P.M. THURSDAY, DUE TO AN ERROR, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  NOTE: AS OF 12:07, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-2-4.

 

Race  4 

1.Mahaamel

2.Repo Rocks

3.Lemon Drop Road

#4 MAHAAMEL was a dead game and well clear runner up behind First Captain in the April 24th debut for both, and the latter re-rallied to best allowance foes in the followup jammie, essentially replicating the Beyer from the bow. We always like when a trainer isn't scared to make an equipment/medication change off a solid effort, and blinks are now added by Pletcher; deserving chalk. #8 REPO ROCKS will be the only one we'll utilize as an exacta saver in this spot based on the back to back career best efforts & a favorable draw. #3 LEMON DROP ROAD as good as any for the show dough.  

 

Race  5

1.Public Sector ( GB )

2.Munqad

3.Colton's Command

#12 PUBLIC SECTOR (GB) has been in the exacta in all three attempts over firm ground, and while a bounce is always possible in a "Second off the L/O-Second time Lasix" deal, we're thinking that with this one's monstrous turf pedigree, he ( just a bit over three years old ) will get better and better. #9 MUNQAD -- like the above -- comes in today off a solid effort when having the wonder drug administered for the first time, ( off the bench ), and perhaps the light bulb stays on. #8 COLTON'S COMMAND showed some mild regression -- but by no means disgraced himself -- when tangling with winners for the 1st time a month back, and given the man calling the shots, we're thinking rebound here.  OFF TURF: 6(MTO)-1-7-2(MTO)10

 

Race  6 

1.Imperio D

2.Brilliant Brooks

3.Quickflash

After being a chronic nibbler over his first dozen ( and winless ) starts, #2 IMPERIO D has really figured things out of late, ringing up a 5:3-1-0 mark of late ( with career best numeros in four of them ). If you're ever going to take swing at a class riser -- make sure they're in form AND going off at double digit odds ( just like this boy here ). Also, we like that this one has no problem running while covered up, as the 6:2-1-2 mark when breaking from the first two posts belies ( compared to being 13:1-4-1 otherwise ). #3 BRILLIANT BROOKS has yet to finish out of the superfecta & that includes a couple'a good tries at this trip & over this strip. Logical. #10 QUICKFLASH closed out the tri in his sole "third off the break" heat and has yet to miss the money in any dirt start when loading in the first two slots.  NOTE: AS OF 12:11, DUE TO A WET TRACK, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-3-1.

 

Race  7

1.Looking at Bikinis

2.American Power

3.Firenze Fire

First of four Graded Stakes on tap today is a tight one, and as our troika of selections all have nice DRF Formulator stats, we're gonna get right to 'em.  #5 LOOKING AT BIKINIS: 26% barn is a snappy 7 for 10 with locally based graded dirt sprinters who won 32-50 days back, and has a positive R.O.I. in that regards. #4 AMERICAN POWER has done some fantastic work since being bought for 40K last July, as six year old "horse" ( You hide 'dem marbles, buddy boy ! ) is but a length shy of shooting for the six pack today. 31:11-7-2 tells us that this one has a schnoz for the line, and he's gonna give you a thrill for your two dollar bill. From an itty bitty sampling, shedrow is 2-3w/runners of this ilk who crashed the fiesta 32-50 days back who are 12-1 or undah. #1 FIRENZE FIRE is 4:2-1-1 in 2nd off the shelf forays, 6 of 9 right here, and dapper Kelly Breen has won with half of his six sand sprinters at this level who won < 51 days back at 6-1 or less ( $5, $6 & $13 ). 

 

Race  8 

1.Chub Wagon

2.Piedi Bianchi

3.Estilo Talentoso

Today's 8th is the Bed O' Roses invitational, and for some edification on the Hall of Fame mare, please go to this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bed_O%27_Roses .  As of the race itself, how can you not root for a gal like #6 CHUB WAGON ? Pennsylvania filly was bred for a mere $1,000, has a poyfect 6 for 6 ledger while having led at 22 of 24 points of call, and starts at her fourth different venue this afternoon. Faces her sternest test yet, but there are no world beaters signed on, and we're seeing Lucky 7 here. #2 PIEDI BIANCHI ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) is back in the Carlos Martin barn these days, and that's nothing to sneeze at, as he has a 6:3-1-1 mark w/this lady on the dirt in their prior partnership. Note that she got her photograph taken in her only "Second off the L/O" outing on a fast track. #8 ESTILO TALENTOSO has the best last race BSF in this grouping, so not quite sure why she's 9/2 on the morning line.  NOTE: AS OF 12:51, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-4-1.

 

Race  9 

1.My Sister Nat ( Fr )

2.Civil Union

3.Micheline

#4 MY SISTER NAT (FR) didn't show a whole heck of a lot when finishing a flat fourth in the Sheepshead Bay, but this one has shown speed figure improvement in all three of her 2nd off the layoff events, and though a bit of a nibbler by nature, we like the switch back to Jose Ortiz here, and there just may be some hidden value with this one. #6 CIVIL UNION is two for two on this course, one for one in second off the L/O engagements, and factor in those factoids with a last race that you can most definitely draw a line through ( over a course listed as "good" ), then you have another double digit offering beneath a top flight pilot. #3 MICHELINE may come along late for a slice.  OFF TURF:  7-4-6-2-1  NOTE: AS OF 12:55, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 10-4-6.

 

Race  10

1.Strong Tide

2.Ziyad ( GB )

3.Baron Samedi ( GB )

The visual on the Beyer progression of #6 STRONG TIDE is sexy to look at. From a 25 first time out to a lifetime best 95 at Churchill 20 days back, this one really seems to be figuring things out as he goes along. The 22:7-3-1 ledger shows her penchant for knowing where that wire is, and trainer is a crisp 6:3-2-0 w/turfers who won less than 40 days back & are beneath the 14-1 odds line ( $16, $18 & $25 ). #3 ZIYAD (GB) is conditioned by one who has been quite cold on this circuit over his last 40 of so starts, but on the whole, is 4-10 with second off the respite graded turf stayers who missed the baccala last out @ 10-1 or below. #8 BARON SAMEDI (GB) has won six in a row over in Europe, and accomplished such while toting higher weights -- and without the "Big L" being given. The only knock is the bad loss in a 2nd off the hibernation affair, and while we'll be using, 8 to 5 seems a bit short for our tastes.  OFF TURF: 7-1-8-6-3

 

Race  11

1.Landbiscuit

2.Cambi Lion

3.Mutasallem

These three and no more for all our rolling action in the nitecap.  #8 LANDBISCUIT has shown some nice improvement with each passing call to the post ( having been in the money in each ) and is now conditioned by Mott, who is a saucy 6:3-2-0 with Belmont based, maiden special weight turf stayers who were 1-2-3 < 38 days in the rear ( $5 x 2 & $4 ). #5 CAMBI LION ( who should be no worse than third for all you show punters out there ) was brought eight wide when having blinkers added in the most recent, and may move forward once again with a cozier sojourn. #3 MUTASALLEM has completed the exacta in all three starts thus far & now has the hood slapped on for the first time; should be right there once again.  OFF TURF: 2-1-4-6-9(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:59, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #13 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  NOTE: AS OF 5:18, DUE TO A MONSOON, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 8-4-6.

  

Belmont            ( Current ):  37-232     ( $259.20 )  Beatable Favorites     6-15 ( 40% ) Favorites   Win %:    95-232  ( 41.1% ) ( As of Friday morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )   Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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