Profitable three bagger to start out the week for us here yesterday.

Just a reminder that if you'd like complete coverage of the Tampa Bay Derby, merely go back one page.

AMAZING news for us here. If you loved the annual homage I write about my father every year for SaratogaBets , you'll be happy to know that I was asked to do a reading for "Our American Stories" (1.7 million weekly listeners), and guess what -- here it is !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #5 Tizgame  Race 2 - #6 Incubator  Race 5 - #2 Three to Thirteen

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Aqueduct - 3/9 - Gotham Day


Race  1

1.D S Advantage


3.Oh My Papa

#7 D S ADVANTAGE has shown absolutely zippo in the mornings, but shotcaller is 3 for 6 with three year old male first time starters on the dirt ( 40-1 or less ) with mutuels of $4, $6 & $25, and of course we like the draw. Note that this one is a half to a 7 for 13 dirt dasher who banked about 129 large, as well as another runner who scored in his only dirt sprint ( 13G ). #2 INVEST was as green as grass when finishing a well beaten second behind a Robbie Davis runaway winner eight days ago, and 23% Rice is twice as nice with locally based second time starters under these conditions at 10-1 or less ( ITM in last ), as she's 5 fer 11 in that regards w/the winners coming back $8, $7, $3, $7 & $5. #4 OH MY PAPA has a bullet gate breeze on the docket, and that pretty much ALWAYS merits inclusion for a first time starter.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 TIZGAME will be led over by a conditioner who is 1-10 in all pertinent categories.  NOTE: AS OF 11:59, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  2

1.Spring Emperor

2.Holy Week

3.Daddy D T

#1 SPRING EMPEROR comes in from Philadelphia park for this, and why not, as this one has won his last two over this oval. 19% conditioner nearly doubles that rate when cutting back his mid level dirt stock who hit the board less than 35 days ago ( 12-1 or lower ), with the winners paying $13, $16, & $6 x 2. Will need some pace to cut into. #5 HOLY WEEK has been solid over the last two, and seven year old "horse" ( you hang on to those dangling participles, buddy ! ) has been in the money in 6 of 11 right here. Oh yeah -- 11% barn is 10-31 with Ozone Park based mid level dirt horsies who were 1-2-3 < 26 days ago & are 10-1 or beneath. #2 DADDY D T is an interesting re-claim by Rudy, as this one has only made the triple in 1 of 8, but he won in his only foray for R.R. ( while being stepped up in class ), so perhaps he feels the rekindling of better times is possible.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 INCUBATOR doen't make our first draft, so why would we take 8-5?


Race  3



3.Mom I Forgive You

Like the last race, we won't be going any deeper than these three for all our rolling action. #7 REDOUBLE drops a couple'a pegs for today's second off the L/O attempt, and has shown improvement after each of the first two starts. Gal gets off the wood today and Manny Man sticks around. #1 KARABESSA has closed out the exacta in three straight and sheds some weight with the hot bug getting aboard. Should be able to sit a good trip. #3 MOM I FORGIVE YOU has disappointed in the last suet, but slides down the ladder a touch and is another who may move forward for a 2nd off the break attempt. 


Race  4 

1.Haul Anchor

2.Shadow Rider

3.Devine Dental

Rodriguez has an uncoupled entry signed on here, both of whom are shooting for the hat trick. We'll side with the #4 HAUL ANCHOR, as this one has positively blitzed his rivals in the last two, and the aforementioned trainer is 8:3-3-0 with 3rd off the break allowance dirt entrants at The Big A coming in off a tally ( $21, $4 & $17 ). #5 SHADOW RIDER is a very consistent sort who has made the super in all six returns off a "true" absence. How do we not put in the #1 DEVINE DENTAL, as this one will be led over by the newest "Greatest trainer the sport has ever seen", Rob Atras, and his 21:10-7-0 run. 


Race  5

1.Ro Bear

2.Mystical Song

3.Special Story

#6 RO BEAR was an honest enough runner up in what we would consider a tougher race last time out, and did so over a wet surface, on which he's proven to be about 9.4% worse on than a wet track. This one may prove to be a nice claim by Avila, as he's still eligible for the A1X condition while being protected against the purchase. It's very rarer that Leo gets a live runner handed over to him, but that's just the case with #4 MYSTICAL SONG. The owners must be quite impatient, as this one makes his 9th start for his ( lawdy ) 7th different bossman. Gelding always seems to give a good account of himself and would be no surprise. #1 SPECIAL STORY outran his odds in a big way when just missing at 17-1 a tad less than three weeks back and should be in the mix once again.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 THREE TO THIRTEEN


Race  6 


2.Votre Coeur

3.Jacqueline D

#3 VIRADIA finds herself at her lowest level to date, and four returnees from that heat have come back to go 4:1-1-0-1 in their followup outings ( from three different starts ). Mildest of selections in a race that we really ain't jamming on. #10 VOTRE COEUR was kept in jail after the January 27th claim by Linda, and now returns for 2/3rd's of that sale number, despite the 3rd place finish. Lone try at this level resulted in a runner up finish, but buyer beware here. #5 JACQUELINE D has done okay work right here and may spice things up beneath.


Race  7


2.Warren's Vengeance

3.No Stone Unturned

Toughest race of the day. #9 INFATUATION was fanned eight wide in a six horse field last time out, and ended up in a new barn afterwards. This one essentially replicated the figure earned from the debut in the first try against winners, so was heading in the right direction just prior to the most recent. That being said, blinkers are now in the mix, and Cancel ( who's having a fine meet ) takes over. #7 WARREN'S VENGEANCE merely split the field in the first foray vs. winners, but the number ( for this grouping ) came back okay, and now transitions from a bug to the best rider in New York. #10 NO STONE UNTURNED has gone coast to coast in 3 of 4, and positively excels from the outside. Watch out, suckahs !


Race  8 

1.Skyler's Scramjet


3.Life in Shambles

Today's 8th race is named after the Hall of Famer Tom Fool, and for a bit of history on the runner, click on this website . Apparently all #3 SKYLER'S SCRAMJET needed was a proper trainer switch, as after finishing out of the money in four straight, this one has gone 10:4-3-0 since being transferred over to Michelle Nevin. Grey gelding ( who won this race last year ) got the job done the only time he ran on the dirt in a 3rd off the L/O try, and this one appears solid -- but by no means a lock. #5 BAVARO sure is a gutsy old fellow ( 20:9-1-2 ) and shoots for the grand salami this afternoon after being snagged by Linda for a quarter two starts back. We always pay heed to those shedding weight off a win. #1 LIFE IN SHAMBLES is 8:3-2-1-1 when starting from the pine, and it's difficult to toss a "miracle man" who has won with 28 of his last 62 starters. 


Race  9 

1.Vino Rosso

2.Sunny Ridge

3.Title Ready

Stymie Stakes on tap here, and we've enclosed some video of the great one in a race against Triple Crown winner Assault . #8 VINO ROSSO was somewhat disappointing after winning the Wood here last year, but Pletcher charge owns a 2 for 3 mark locally, and one of those was a one turn jammie. Slight edge. #2 SUNNY RIDGE has the best overall body of work in the field, but is 0 for 5 in 2nd off the L/O tries and 0-4 over this oval. Using, but with a touch of trepidation. #5 TITLE READY won the only time he cut back from two turns to one. 


Race  10


2.Not That Brady

3.Mind Control

#6 INSTAGRAND has gone all the way in both starts to date, and accomplished such in visually impressive fashion. Hollendorfer knows a thing or two about bringing 'em back off long layoffs, and Castellano knows a thing or two about this oval. Not a sexy selection, but then again, this ain't exactly a sexy rendition of the Gotham. #7 NOT THAT BRADY fell just a head short in the Withers five weeks ago, and cuts back from two turns to one while keeping the apprentice ( with no break in the weights ). Fella can land a share. #3 MIND CONTROL is 4:3-1-0 going 1X , and one of those scores came off the shelf. Drawing a line through the BC Juvenile flop shows a progression of 74-79-84-89 in one turn tries.


Race  11

1.Please Flatter Me


3.Filly Joel

#10 PLEASE FLATTER ME has basically gone all the way in her triad of starts ( improving with each  ) and owns a couple of crisp workouts since last seen. Deserving favorite, but there are some tough foes in here, so you may want to go a touch deeper than just this one. #1 UJJAYI was given an exceptional ride in winning the Ruthless by a bit under two lengths, and is another one where you can slide the ol' "upwards arrow" next to the Beyers. #7 FILLY JOEL has yet to miss a superfecta and cuts back in distance for today's second start off the break.


Aqueduct      ( Current )     55-272     ( $335.50 )     Beatable Favorites: 6-17  ( 35.3 % )     Favorites Win %:   115-272 ( 42.3% )( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Final ):     0-2          ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites: N/A                      Favorite's Win %:    0-2       ( 0.0% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2018 Final ) 60-366   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-366  ( 34.2% )  +/-: -29.1% against a 17.1% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568       ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-8 (All Final):2061-10077 ($17,281.50) Beatable Favorites : 304-1085( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3698-10180 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2146-10645 ($18,100.70) Beatable Favorites : 319-1153( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3861-10767 ( 35.9% ) +/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.5% takeout