One was the loneliest number for us yesterday, as we had a 24-1 shot get lipped late in the feature. Onward and upward !

AMAZING news for us here. If you loved the annual homage I write about my father every year for SaratogaBets , you'll be happy to know that I was asked to do a reading for "Our American Stories" (1.7 million weekly listeners), and guess what -- here it is !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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Aqueduct - 3/3


Race  1



3.Fire Eagle

#1 SANAABLE rallied strongly to complete the tri first time out at Hallandale Beach, and once Kiaran saw this race in the condition book, he justifiably felt it would be easy pickens. 396 Tommy tells us that the debut was no aberration, as there's some upside here, and barn is a nice 3 for 9 with locally based second time starters at this level who hit the board first time out. Will be no worse than 3rd here for all you show punters. #4 GRACETOWN has improved with each start and sheds two pounds off a well clear runner up in this race on January 19th. #5 FIRE EAGLE begins her working life this afternoon for a barn who never wins with firsters, but the 426 Tommy and decent draw give us enough reason to include.  NOTE: AS OF 12:23, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  2

1.Blue Skies Forever

2.Theresa's Boy

3.Noble Behavior

Like today's opener, we won't be going any deeper than these three for all our rolling action.  One good thing about DRF Formulator is finding positive angles with single digit trainers. Take #1 BLUE SKIES FOREVER for example. On his own merits the horse belongs, but when you factor in that 8% Jimmy Ferraro is a jazzy 9:4-1-1 with maiden claiming dirt stock that hit the board less than 33 days ago ( 9-1 or < ) w/the winners paying $4, $11 & $9 x 2. #5 THERESA'S BOY ( cross entered on Friday, so check the changes ) is pretty much a professional maiden these days, but Contessa ( 10% on the norm ) is 7-26 ( 27% ) with Ozone Park mdclm. dirt runners who were 1-2-3 less than 20 days ago. #4 NOBLE BEHAVIOR has closed out the tri in the last two and who are we to rock the boat, baby.  NOTE: AS OF 12:24, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  3

1.Malibu Action

2.Happy Farm


#2 MALIBU ACTION was extremely game when besting cheaper just eight days ago, and is wheeled right back by the newest "Supertrainer" in Rob Atras ( 9 for 15 ). Junior hops on, and he's 5 for 8 with this outfit. Slight edge in a wide open event. #3 HAPPY FARM is 3 for 8 at the trip ( 1 for 5 otherwise ) and is 1 for 2 off "true" layoffs. Extremely logical, especially with Franco hopping on. #5 ARISTOCRATIC has done his best work at this dist. and totes the lightest impost of his career.  NOTE: AS OF 12:25, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  4 

1.Bank Gala



#6 BANK GALA had excuses in the first two and posted a decent # in the third try, despite breaking a bit slow from the rail, which is never easy for a maiden. Gelding ( hopefully ) catches a fast track for the first time today, and that's of some relevance, as this one is better bred for a fast track than a wet one. Chap draws ideally today, and ain't facing much. #2 FALSIFIER showed zippo in the overture, but gets a complete makeover today: Drop, juice, hood, and a bug. Would only need to find one of those agreeable to make an impression in this allotment. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" theory with the #4 DISCIPLINARIAN ( also put in on Friday ) here, as there's a nice gate move amidst a bevy of ordinary workouts. 


Race  5

1.First Forever



We have three sets of decent trainer stats in play here, so let's get to 'em in a no frills manner... #5 FIRST FOREVER: Rice is 13:7-4-0 with second time starters in maiden special weight dirt dashes right here who MISSED the money first time out ( < 50 days ), and obviously, there's a positive ROI in that regards. #4 LOOKBOTHWAYS: Levine ( 14% day to day ) is 2 fer 9 ( 22% ) with firsters of this ilk ( $13 & $22 ). #6 SARAHRINI: 8% Sciacca is ( from a small survey ) 1 for 5 with those starting things out at this locale on the sand at 30-1 or undah ( $29 ). 


Race  6 

1.Pretty Enuff

2.Sandy Belle

3.Promise Me Roses

#1 PRETTY ENUFF gamely bested slightly weaker in the most recent, and for all her efforts, ended up in a new barn afterwards. The good news is that this outfit owns a tidy 3 for 6 mark with freshly purchased dirt sprinters coming in off a tally ( $4, $8 & $9 ), and four returnees from that affair came back to go 1-0-1 next time out ( in two separate races ). Pre claim pilot comes back ( which we always dig ), and how do you argue against that 7 fer 18 lifetime ledger @ the trip? Oh yeah, this lady is a whopping 8 for 15 when starting from the innermost two slots ( 3-19 from the three hole on out ). The more we type... #2 SANDY BELLE ( who's wom 3 of 6 right here ) won this race 23 days ago & Toscano is 3 for 14 with those who won right here less than 45 days back. #3 PROMISE ME ROSES ( who was also entered on Saturday ) shoots for the hat trick for the miracle man who's 9 for 15 on the stand, and you'd be Silly McGilly to leave out.


Race  7

1.Win With Pride

2.Royal Asset

3.I'm an Ocala Dude

#1 WIN WITH PRIDE has won 3 of 4, is 3 for 6 @ the dx., and is also 3 for 6 when starting from the inside three posts ( less than half as successful from other slots ). Mild choice. #3 ROYAL ASSET has disappointed in the last duet but we always look at three running lines, and the 3rd one back was purdy sharp; finest performances have come at this distance. #4 I'M AN OCALA DUDE makes his third start off the bench today and has a nice "declining" mark ( 7:3-2-1 ) at The Big A.  NOTE: AS OF 12:37, WE ARE AMENDING OUR SELECTIONS TO 4-1-3.


Race  8 

1.Science Fiction

2.Summer Punch

3.No Deal

#1 SCIENCE FICTION shoots for the grand salami today for you guessed it -- Atras, and as she just got the job done versus what we would consider tougher, it's well within reach. #2 SUMMER PUNCH has gotten the job done in three of four, is a nifty 4 of 7 over this oval, and Bobby B is 5:3-0-1 with runners fitting this criteria who crashed the fiesta last out ( 15-1 or beneath ). The mutuels were $5, $8 & $9, and this one is in the form of her life. #5 NO DEAL enters this off a personal best number & is 5:2-2-0 here. 


Aqueduct      ( Current )     51-256     ( $309.40 )   Beatable Favorites     5-16  ( 31.3 % )  Favorites Win %:    108-256  ( 42.2% )

Graded Stakes ( Final ):     0-2          ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites: N/A                        Favorite's Win %:    0-2         ( 0.0% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2018 Final ) 60-366   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-366  ( 34.2% )  +/-: -29.1% against a 17.1% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568       ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-8 (All Final):2061-10077 ($17,281.50) Beatable Favorites : 304-1085( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3698-10180 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2146-10645 ($18,100.70) Beatable Favorites : 319-1153( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3861-10767 ( 35.9% ) +/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.5% takeout