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So so day for us here yesterday with a couple'a chalky winners along with four exacta boxes of $18, $52, $57, $18 & a cold one for $14, a quinella box of $32 & a cold one for $10, and a $129 triple box.

Just a reminder that we have the Fountain of Youth all doped out for ya. Just go back one page. 

AMAZING news for me. If you loved the annual homage I write about my father every year for SaratogaBets , you'll be happy to know that I was asked to do a reading for "Our American Stories" (1.7 million weekly listeners), and guess what -- here it is !  http://www.ouramericannetwork.org/story?title=My-Parents-Are-Gone-But-Their-Traditions-Aren-t&fbclid=IwAR0nxu9wzv3sHr3853i6prcuIYN43GK6J-1YaDzmy7ft7oIE2CD5AbDiCjU

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 3/1

 

Race  1

1.Americano

2.Threatlovesmidnite

3.Rouxhere

#2 AMERICANO should positively destroy this field if Linda doesn't scratch him, and why would she? Owners plunked down 40K for this one a bit more than two months ago, and factoring in about $8,000 in trainer & vet fees, they're in for about 48 large. Now, with the $4,000 earned in the last, that gives them a net loss of 44 big ones. IF he gets claimed today for 35, they will be at minus 9G. Second place money in this race is $11,550 ( which they should easily get ), so the connections are essentially getting a "free shot at a big pot". At our first glance of this race, we were wondering why the hell Todd would enter #1 THREATLOVESMIDNITE. This is a maiden who just got trounced at the 35K mdclm. level by a whopping 53 lengths on 1/25 & is now facing winners. Why? Could it be that maybe Pletcher felt he detested the off going and wants to give him another shot over a fast track. The 401 Tomlinson figure tells us we'll do the same, as there ain't much else here. #3 ROUXHERE comes in off a career best effort for today's 3rd off the layoff try.  NOTE: AS OF 11:22, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Frostie Anne

2.Mia Bella Rossa

3.Daria's Angel

Like the above heat, we won't be going any deeper than the top two for all our rolling action. #2 FROSTIE ANNE went coast to coast like butter and toast against a group that we would consider to be just 2 points weaker than this, so a repeat is well within reach today, especially given excellent "declining" records at the trip, over the strip, & lifetime. #5 MIA BELLA ROSSA shoots for the hat trick today and is 2 for 3 in second off the L/o tries, and owns that same mark when breaking from the outside. Watch out, suckahs ! #4 DARIA'S ANGEL ( cross entered yesterday at Laurel, so check the changes ) is 9:5-3-1 @ the dx. and will be led over by someone who is 15:9-3-0 ( what? ) as of this writing.

 

Race  3

1.Forecaster

2.Pour It Out

3.Missionatthespa

#6 FORECASTER positively immolated baccala in the overture, but has the hood added today and Junior sticks around. That last part is of some relevance, as since last Independence Day, this jockey/trainer combo is 31:15-3-4 in one turn dirt events at 20-1 or less, with six of the winners paying double digits, and a few in the $30 range. #4 POUR IT OUT showed improved early speed in the latest and catches a glib surface for the first time today. #1 MISSIONATTHESPA showed little in the bow, but returns sans tes-tee-klees, and low % rider has done darn well for this clan. 

 

Race  4 

1.Killala Bay

2.Invest

3.Theresa's Boy

#5 KILLALA BAY has been a different animal since mid '18, having partaken in the superfecta in all four outings, with a decent numero earned in each. Four year old goes from an apprentice to a journeyman today, and while that experience is always nice, with it goes a whopping 12 pound hike in the weight department. Mixed signals. #7 INVEST is a three year old facing some older foes for the career starter, but a couple of the morning moves are nice enough, and this one went for 8X the stud fee at auction. Note that the dam was 3-14 in dirt dashes, banking 180 big ones, and the sire was obviously a goodie, ringing up a one for three mark in the same kinda deal. #3 THERESA'S BOY is obviously approaching professional maiden status these days, but can run a good one now and again, so we'll chunk beneath.  NOTE: AS OF 11:25, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Monteleone

2.Take Your Place

3.Joopster

#6 MONTELEONE has shown very little in the last duet, but that didn't dissuade Jr. from returning, as he was astride for the hat trick just prior to the last two. Gelding's best work has come right here, and Linda owns a tidy 3 for 6 ledger with locally based mid level dirt stock who missed the board less than 16 days ago ( $11, $14 & $4 ). #4 TAKE YOUR PLACE got his photo taken the only time he was entered at this level or less, and owns a crisp 7:3-2-1 record at the dist. #2 JOOPSTER missed by a sliver in this race back on Christmas Eve Eve, and despite the bevy of breaks in the action, merits some respect.  NOTE: AS OF 11:27, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Taptaptap

2.It's Mo Joke

3.Six Brothers

#6 TAPTAPTAP gets a jockey change from the last when he was smacked around at the onset & compelled to race in between competitors, and Jimmy did the right thing and gave this one some time to mature a touch. Rajiv guided this one to a 3rd place finish the last time they were paired up, and recognize the adjusted 51.4 ( at a higher level ) in the bow last summer over a fast surface. #2 IT'S MO JOKE was justifiably DQ'd in the first start on 1/26, and the fact that this one owns a 369 Tomlinson for the distance, tells us that the strong result was likely no anomaly. #1 SIX BROTHERS has only beaten home the chase ambulance in the last troika, but we go anywhere in a maiden's P.P.'s to find something positive ( especially in a bad bunch like this ), and the debut was solid enough. Price addition.

 

Race  7

1.Intoxicologist

2.Countable

3.Diamond N Simon

We don't really have a great read on this deal, so tread lightly... We always like when a trainer isn't scared to make an equipment change off a win, and that's exactly what Nevin does after the maiden breaking effort of #2 INTOXICOLOGIST. This one rallied nicely from the back of the pack to grab the sheepskin here on January 5th, and one wonders if the equipment change was made in order to get a bit more speed out of this one. Anyway, there's a decent work on the 23rd and we'll give this one a slight edge. #6 COUNTABLE was extremely game in getting that first win on 1/11, and the runner up from that day came back to get the Polaroid taken next time out. Filly sheds 32 ounces off the score and Double D comes back. The light bulb has come on for the #3 DIAMOND N SIMON in the last two, with a win & a placing, and Philly based trainer once again brings in a home town jock for a crack against optional foes.

 

Race  8 

1.Summer Bourbon

2.H Man

3.Stretch's Stone

#9 SUMMER BOURBON has done his best work at this dx. ( 4 for 15 ) compared to other trips ( 1 for 12 ), is 4:1-1-0 off the shelf, and is also 1 for 2 when starting from the outermost slot. As always -- good to see Manny climb on. #4 H MAN stepped up $7,500 in the first start off the claim for Servis ( despite being out of jail ) and whistled ( shocker ) just last Thursday. Seven year old with 53 starts is stepped up another five large this afternoon, and we'd be remiss in excluding. #5 STRETCH'S STONE found his way into the winner's circle the only time he was entered at this level and is reunited with the jock from his last win. Levine charge always seems to find his way into the mix.

 


Aqueduct      ( Current )     46-239     ( $286.30 )   Beatable Favorites     5-16  ( 31.3 % )  Favorites Win %:    100-239  ( 41.8% )( As of Friday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Final ):     0-2          ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites: N/A                        Favorite's Win %:    0-2         ( 0.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2018 Final ) 60-366   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-366  ( 34.2% )  +/-: -29.1% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568       ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-8 (All Final):2061-10077 ($17,281.50) Beatable Favorites : 304-1085( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3698-10180 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2146-10645 ($18,100.70) Beatable Favorites : 319-1153( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3861-10767 ( 35.9% ) +/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.5% takeout


 CoxLA2017