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Just a couple of moderately priced winners here on Sunday on a washout of a day.

AMAZING news for me. If you loved the annual homage I write about my father every year for SaratogaBets , you'll be happy to know that I was asked to do a reading for "Our American Stories" (1.7 million weekly listeners), and guess what -- here it is !  http://www.ouramericannetwork.org/story?title=My-Parents-Are-Gone-But-Their-Traditions-Aren-t&fbclid=IwAR0nxu9wzv3sHr3853i6prcuIYN43GK6J-1YaDzmy7ft7oIE2CD5AbDiCjU

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 2/28

 

Race  1

1.Our Honor

2.Flat Out Jayvien

3.Support Our Cause

#4 OUR HONOR has the best collection of speed figures in the bunch, but has been beset by a couple of layoff lines, and drops for the second time in as many starts today. This one has been gelded since last seen, brings in tow a bullet breeze, and from a tiny sampling, Rice is 3 for 4 with first off the claim maiden claiming dirt stock off breaks of 55 days or more. Would take a lot for this one to lose. #6 FLAT OUT JAYVIEN lost by just a length versus slightly weaker at 15-1 19 days ago, and as Persaud has been utilizing the services of Maragh a lot lately, no surprise to see him named on this live runner. #5 SUPPORT OUR CAUSE is second off a "true" layoff for the first time this afternoon, and gets a slight jockey upgrade.  NOTE: AS OF 11:18, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Smiles From Sadie/Free Kitty

2.Mo Flash

3.Miss Loyalty

#1A SMILES FROM SADIE is our play of the meet ( albeit at a short price ). Four year old was a well clear runner up in this race on January 10th, and the winner from that afternoon came back to get the job done next time out. Rudy Rod is a perfect 9 for 9 with allowance dirt stock who were in the money 48-50 days ago, with an ROI in that regards of $4.50. New York's 2018 leading rider comes back. #1 FREE KITTY has hit the board in all six times locally as well as all seven attempts at the dx. #6 MO FLASH is about a 15% better animal over a fast track than a wet one, so right off the bat, you can expect some improvement today. 3 for 6 mark at The Big A stands out like a sore thumb, especially when you compare it to the 3 for 9 ledger otherwise. #2 MISS LOYALTY is 2 for 4 a@ this trip & over this strip, and sheds a whopping nine pounds off a score.  NOTE: AS OF 11:20, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, THE #'S 4 & 5 WILL BE OUR SECOND & 3RD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race  3

1.Whistling Birds

2.Judge Stanton

3.Pier Forty

We're pretty sure that one of these three will hit the board here. #5 WHISTLING BIRDS burned a bit of bread when closing out the exacta against open foes down in Philadelphia 23 days ago, and draws better today while getting Carmouche in the irons for his 2nd day off a loooooong absence. Y'all know how I feel about jocks returning off injuries -- usually their first few mounts are VERY live. #3 JUDGE STANTON bested half the field first time out when displaying a bit of a "Z" pattern, and as this $5,000 bred animal went for 120K at auction, you'd have to think the connections expect some improvement here. #2 PIER FORTY owns the best last race number & makes all kinds of sense. 

 

Race  4 

1.Bozzini

2.Dr. Lloyd

3.Captain Frost

#4 BOZZINI got up in time to win off the bench for 'Miah when nicely spotted down in Maryland a week and a half ago, and the aforementioned conditioner is 5 for 10 with second off the shelf optional entrants who got the job done last time out ( 8-1 or less ). The return on investment for that sampling is $4.43, and Manny Man grabs the helm. #6 DR. LLOYD was visually impressive when galloping to grab the sheepskin about a month back, and the numero earned from that heat was a bit higher than the wet track fig prior to that. Why is that relevant? Simply because the Tomlinson for off tracks is substantially higher, so a regression would be expected. Big shot from the outside post. #3 CAPTAIN FROST appreciated either the blinkers or the drop in class on New Year's Eve when scoring by open lengths right here, and deserves some respect once again.  NOTE: AS OF 11:21, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Dollarsforpennies

2.Coolboy

3.Wisecrack

#6 DOLLARSFORPENNIES split the field in the goo first time out, but the pedigree tells us that this one should move forward over a glib surface second time out. There's a substantial trainer upgrade in play here, and note that the show horse from the bow returned a winner in the followup outing. Slight edge. #2 COOLBOY was a well beaten but decently clear runner up last time out, and should probably be left in the mix once again. #4 WISECRACK comes in today off a second best career outing and drops from open company to state breds.

 

Race  6 

1.Avast Matey

2.There Goes Jose

3.Swivel

#4 AVAST MATEY didn't show a whole heck of a lot in this spot three weeks ago, but the figure earned from that deal is fairly comparable to the rest of this bunch. 10% Ryerson is 4-22 ( 18% ) with runners of this ilk who missed the baccala < three fortnights ago & are 20-1 or undah. ( And he's actually 0-10 with those who were IN the money under similar circumstances. ) The winners came back $14, $10, $24 & $12, and you may just get a square price here. #5 THERE GOES JOSE is halved in price today by the newest "Supertrainer" who's 14:8-3-0 at the stand. #1 SWIVEL drops to an all time low.  NOTE: AS OF 11:22, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Siena Magic

2.American Power

3.Crea's Bklyn Law

We won't be going any deeper than these three for all our rolling action. #2 SIENA MAGIC has improved over his last quartet and shoots for the hat trick today under the tutelage of new conditioner, Bob Dunham. The elder statesman doesn't win much, but over the last five years, he's 4 for 7 with those beneath the 7-1 watermark and just 1 for 80 otherwise. Check out that this one won his only start over a fast track, and 394 Tommy tells us that there is ample room for improvement over a glib surface once again. #1 AMERICAN POWER is a model of consistency, and Rice is nice when it comes to those fitting ALL this exact criteria ( right down to the jock ), as she's 5 fer 10 w/an R.O.I. of $2.38. #6 CREA'S BKLYN LAW closes out the tri.

 

Race  8 

1.Give Me a Hug

2.Bizness Beauty

3.Whyisshesolucky

Once again, we won't be delving any deeper than this troika... #4 GIVE ME A HUG hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but has been switched over to the Rudy barn, and that's of some serious relevance, as said shotcaller is a poyfect 6 for 6 when being handed a runner and bringing them back at this level off sabbaticals of 140-260 days ( 5-2 or less ). #6 BIZNESS BEAUTY halved the field in last and is third off the L/O today. #7 WHYISSHESOLUCKY has ( for this grouping ) a decent collection of Beyer figures, and Maymo slaps the hood on in an effort to shake things up a bit. Jockey an icicle, so be careful of taking too short of a price.


Aqueduct      ( Current )     44-231     ( $276.90 )     Beatable Favorites     5-16  ( 31.3 % )  Favorites Win %:    97-231  ( 42.0% )( As of Thursday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Final ):     0-2          ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites: N/A                      Favorite's Win %:    0-2       ( 0.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2018 Final ) 60-366   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-366  ( 34.2% )  +/-: -29.1% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568       ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-8 (All Final):2061-10077 ($17,281.50) Beatable Favorites : 304-1085( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3698-10180 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2146-10645 ($18,100.70) Beatable Favorites : 319-1153( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3861-10767 ( 35.9% ) +/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.5% takeout


 CoxLA2017