Nice day for us here yesterday with three winners, two triple boxes ( $43 & $417 ), two rolling Pick 3's ( $227 & $451 ), three exacta boxes ( $16, $31 & $99 ), four rolling doubles $17, $70, $60 & $68, and a rolling Pick 4 of $1,985 !

AMAZING news for me. If you loved the annual homage I write about my father every year for SaratogaBets , you'll be happy to know that I was asked to do a reading for "Our American Stories" (1.7 million weekly listeners), and guess what -- here it is !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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Aqueduct - 2/24


Race  1

1.Master Distiller

2.Iona Mobe


#1 MASTER DISTILLER has improved with each passing start ( closing out the exacta in all of them ), and DePaz is a near perfect 5:4-0-1 with second off the layoff maiden special weight dirt stock ( $11, $3, $15 & $9 ), and this one simply appears to lay over the others signed on. Only thing that beats him is a bad trip. #4 IONA MOBE had absolutely no excuse for the recent flop, but owns a couple of decent running lines, and as you know, we go anywhere in a maiden's PP's to find something positive, as they're maidens for a reason, ya know. #5 GONGHEIFATCHOY ( "a wish for prosperity" ) moved forward from the first start to the second, and sheds four pounds off a troubled 4th at big balloons last time out.  NOTE: AS OF 10:40, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET AND A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL NOW BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  2

1.Tale of Mist

2.Call Me

3.One River Place

These three and no more for all our rolling action...  #5 TALE OF MIST split the field when last seen in a similar spot around turkey time, and although this one is a notorious nibbler ( 28:2-6-10 ), we're assuaged by the 1 for 3 mark in "true" off the bench tries going one turn over a fast track, as well as the recent bullet breeze. #4 CALL ME is confidently hiked up in class in the first start off the purchase ( despite disappointing in the most recent outing) and is a threat if able to get back to the penultimate start. #2 ONE RIVER PLACE brings a big recent fig in tow, but note that it came with the addition of front wraps, so take a peek in the paddock.  NOTE: AS OF 10:45, DIE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 1-5-4.


Race  3

1.Thunder's Honor

2.Equal the Score

3.Party On Prospect

#2 THUNDER'S HONOR was a bit flat when having bandages added back in mid December, but colt lost by just a schnoz in the lone dirt try off a break, and the four year old has been working decently for the comebacker. There's a sensational DRF Formulator stat in play here, which has 15% Weaver at a dreamy 8:7-1-0 with mid level dirt runners off breaks of 51-89 days at 10-1 or less ( $4.82 ROI ). Stock goes up if the front wraps come off for this play of the day.  #3 EQUAL THE SCORE went all the way to grab the sheepskin back on January 18th, and its hard to dismiss anything that the newest "Greatest Trainer Ever" is putting out these days, as he's showing an 8 for 14 record on the stand. #5 PARTY ON PROSPECT rounds out the top three.  NOTE: AS OF 10:51, DUE TO A SCRATCH & THE TRACK BEING WET, THE #6 WILL NOW BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  4 

1.Have Another

2.Devine Dental

3.Lazarus Project

#1 HAVE ANOTHER was fanned seven wide in a field with that many last time out, but still completed the triple that day at this very same class level. Servis ( 27% on the norm ) is 9:4-1-2-3 with first off the claim mid level dirt horsies who were in the money 22-50 days back & are below the 4-1 watermark today ( $8, $9, & $7 x 2 ). #6 DEVINE DENTAL has lots of speed and is 6:1-3-2 when entered between 25K & 40K. May last for a share. #2 LAZARUS project completes our troika of runners who we'll be utilizing in all rolling wagers, based on the two for five local mark.  NOTE: AS OF 10:56, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR ELECTIONS TO 3-1-6.


Race  5


2.Spectacular Kid

3.Blinded Vision

#1 ULTIMATEENTICEMENT has only beaten one home in the last duet, but was facing tougher in the goo last time out, and obviously didn't dig going two turns just prior to that. We always go back three races, and the January 12th heat ( under near identical circumstances ) produced an adjusted speed figure of 73.8, and as a matter of fact, 6% Randi is 3-15 ( 20% ) with second off the claim mid level dirt entrants who finished out of the money less than 34 days ago & are between 10-1 & 30-1 today ( $41, $40 & $25 ). #6 SPECTACULAR KID has never been entered this cheaply, and Maymo ( who only wins 7% of his races ) is 3 for 7 with runners at this level < 4-1 ( $10 & $7 x 2 ). #3 BLINDED VISION is another who finds himself at an all time low and has been gelded since the most recent.  NOTE: AS OF 11:07, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 6-3-4.


Race  6 


2.Hailey's Flip

3.D J's Favorite

#2 CELESSE has hit the board in eight of nine, and will probably move forward off the last deal, given this one's history of better performances over glib surfaces. Slightest of edges in an extremely tight optional event. #5 HAILEY'S FLIP is an extremely steady sort who finished third in the lone local try, and sheds some weight off a win -- which we always like to see. #3 D J'S FAVORITE is another consistent type who has done well enough over this oval to merit inclusion.  NOTE: AS OF 11:11, DUE TO A SCRATCH & THE TRACK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 4-1-2.


Race  7

1.Fleet Irish

2.Broadway Bay

3.Holy Week

#3 FLEET IRISH outran his odds both times he went from one turn to two ( hitting the super in both ), and has some decent falimiarity with this strip ( 2 for 12 ). From an itty bitty sampling, Sells is 2 for 3 with those fitting this criteria, and we'll give this one a tepid nod in a wide open affair. #6 BROADWAY BAY is 2 for 4 in second off the L/O tries, and you really don't have to spend much time convincing us to use a runner with a 53:16-3-9 lifetime mark. #5 HOLY WEEK steps up after a lively runner up finish, but despite the class hike, fits in with these nicely.


Race  8 

1.Sweet Breeze

2.My First Gal

3.Dazzling Speed

#2 SWEET BREEZE goes from open foes to state breds today, gets a slight upgrade in the jockey department, and sheds a couple of pounds while sliding off the rail a touch. Price play in today's 3rd off the layoff try. #3 MY FIRST GAL got caught late in the game against similar type last time out, and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman today. Deserving chalk. #4 DAZZLING SPEED flashed some early hoof in the first try off an elongated absence, and filly could cause a ruckus if able to revert to either of the first two outings.   NOTE: AS OF 11:17, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 3-4-1.


Aqueduct      ( Current )     42-223     ( $264.90 )     Beatable Favorites     5-16  ( 31.3 % )  Favorites Win %:    95-223  ( 42.6% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2018 Final ) 60-366   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-366  ( 34.2% )  +/-: -29.1% against a 17.1% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568       ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-8 (All Final):2061-10077 ($17,281.50) Beatable Favorites : 304-1085( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3698-10180 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2146-10645 ($18,100.70) Beatable Favorites : 319-1153( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3861-10767 ( 35.9% ) +/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.5% takeout