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I would like to welcome Capital OTB on board, as the third platform that this column will be syndicated to ! They join the fine folks at Batavia Bets and Yonkers Raceway, & of course, Saratoga Bets.

Now let's cash some tickets !

AMAZING news for us here. If you loved the annual homage I write about my father every year, you'll be happy to know that I was asked to do a reading for "Our American Stories" (1.7 million weekly listeners), and guess what -- here it is !  http://www.ouramericannetwork.org/story?title=My-Parents-Are-Gone-But-Their-Traditions-Aren-t&fbclid=IwAR0nxu9wzv3sHr3853i6prcuIYN43GK6J-1YaDzmy7ft7oIE2CD5AbDiCjU

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 2/23

 

Race  1

1.I Love Jaxson

2.Purchasing Power

3.Tiz No Bluff

Watching "The Sting" while typing away here, and it truly never gets old. The music, the "between scenes" artwork, just everything... #4 I LOVE JAXSON was a gamely runner up versus slightly weaker three weeks ago, and the lone win came over this oval. Most mild of choices in a lackluster opener. #5 PURCHASING POWER ran second in this race about a month and a half ago, and while we'll obviously be including, there's nothing specific about this one that stands out. Meh... #6 TIZ NO BLUFF has hit the board in five of six off the break and gets in at the lightest weight of his career.  NOTE: AS OF 11:23, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, OUR 2ND & 3RD CHOICES WILL BE THE #'S 3 & 1 RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race  2

1.Ja's Malibu

2.Awillaway

3.Today Comes Once

#6 JA'S MALIBU is the clear speed of this deal, has gamely closed out the exacta in the last two ( when well clear of the 3rd place finisher in both ), and gets a positive jockey change as nice guy Edmund looks to get a win for likely the best horse he has in his barn these days. His race to lose. #4 AWILLAWAY had positively no excuse for the bad fade late in the game on February 3rd, so Dally looks to give this one some added punch by enlisting the services if the meet's leading apprentice. Major threat if able to get back to that debut. #7 TODAY COMES ONCE came along well enough to get 3rd at 12-1 in the career starter, and 396 Tomlinson figure says to us that it was likely not an aberration.

 

Race  3

1.Gypsum Johnny

2.Charlie McCoy

3.Uncle Sigh

#4 GYPSUM JOHNNY was kept in jail & is confidently hiked up in class by more than 50% today after a slightly troubled sojourn last time out. Four returnees from that heat ( including the gutsy Bavaro ) have amassed a 1-1-1 ledger since then, and 'Miah owns a crisp 6:4-2-0 mark when hiking up newly claimed dirt sprinters off breaks of 36-50 days ( at 13-1 or less ) by 50% or more. The winners came back $4, $7, $6 & $21, and gelding gets in light. #5 CHARLIE MCCOY was visually impressive when drawing away from some state bred foes a month ago, and seven returnees from that heat came back to improve by an average of 5.7 points next time out. There have been two bullet breezes since, as apparently Nevin has been looking for the perfect spot. #2 UNCLE SIGH ( entered Thursday....AND Friday.... ) has been a part of the exacta in more than half of his lifetime starts and digs this joint.

 

Race  4 

1.Mo Savings

2.Lady Macho

3.KID IS FROSTY

#8 MO SAVINGS hasn't shown a whole heck of a lot down at Palm Beach Downs, so The Toddster ships this one back north, rather than face open foes down there. Runner is a full to Clipthecouponannie ( 5 for 8 in dirt dashes, banking nearly a quarter of a mil ) and was dropped by a dam who was 6 for 10 @ this dance ( 207 large ) while being sired by an hombre who was a nose shy of a 5 for 5 mark doing the same ( well more than a million earned in that regards ). We love the draw, and gal won't find an easier spot at this level. #4 LADY MACHO brings in tow a 384 Tommy for today's overture and needn't be much to make an impression. #3 KID IS FROSTY has yet to miss the board and who are we to rock that boat?

 

Race  5

1.Leap to Glory

2.Elios Milos

3.Lohengrin Two

We came across three tidy but tight DRF Formulator stats in today's 5th, and as it's 1;12 in the morning, let's put aside the loquaciousness and get to them in a no frills fashion. #2 LEAP TO GLORY: Charlie Baker owns a 6 for 11 mark with 3rd off the L/O ( 22 days or more ) allowance dirt stock who won their most recent & are 20-1 or undah ( $4 x 2, $3 x 2, $16 & $5 ). #7 ELIOS MILOS: Brown is 3 fer 8 when being handed over a sand sprinter and bringing them back at this level off sabbaticals of 168-336 days. #4 LOHENGRIN TWO: Barrow ( 16 day to day ) is 3 for 11 ( 27% ) with allowance dirt sprinters off absences of 51-139 days ( 20-1 or beneath ) w/ payoffs of $5, $15 & $4.  NOTE: AS OF 11:32, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Pulsate

2.U R Not So Bad

3.Brees Bayou

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #8 PULSATE comes in today off a big effort when finishing second, directly in front of a next out winner who went from a 72 to an 82 in the Beyer department. ( As a matter of fact, the winner replicated the last out # when closing out the tri in the Jimmy Winkfield stakes right here. Ribaudo charge went six wide in a field with that many last time out, and should be able to get the job done here with a tidier trip. #9 U R NOT SO BAD received the most unkind cut of all after back to back flops, and worked well at Belmont a week ago. May just settle down a bit from today's outermost slot. #3 BREES BAYOU gets the wonder drug administered after an even fourth in the bow, and $175,000 auction buy is eligible to take a step forward today.

 

Race  7

1.J S Bach

2.Sir Ballantine

3.Bon Raison

#5 J S BACH finished third in a nearly identical spot three weeks ago, and owns a perfect ITM rate locally ( 7:2-0-5 ). bay gelding is 2 of 6 off the layoff & rates a slight edge in a competitive affair. #3 SIR BALLANTINE has done his best work mover this oval and has been a part of the superfecta in 13 of 15. #3 BON RAISON is wheeled right back in a week after a lively score vs. allowance foes right here, and is 3:1-1-1 off breaks of 17 days or less with a 2 for 3 at the distance.

 

Race  8 

1.Stonesintheroad

2.Forgotten Hero

3.Maiden Beauty

#3 STONESINTHEROAD is a perfect two for two thus far ( Bustin Stones progeny have been doing quite well these days ) and we like how this one posted a quicker half mile in the secondary start than the first one. We believe you have to grab her by the tail to get the glory. #4 FORGOTTEN HERO is another undefeated sort, but looks to be just a few points short of the above from a speed figure aspect, and will likely have to run that one down late in the game. #2 MAIDEN BEAUTY is the apparent class of this deal and has fired off a bullet for today's 2nd off the layoff try.

 

Race  9 

1.Porfessor Snape

2.O Shea Can U See

3.Malibu Action

#9 PROFESSOR SNAPE completed the exacta against slightly weaker on February the 2nd, and gets an upgrade in the apprentice department here, with a switch from Benjamin to Reylu. Gary Gullo just about doubles his normative 17% rate with locally based mid level dirt stock who were in the money less than three fortnights back ( 5-1 or lower ). 8:3-1-2 Queens record duly noted. #7 O SHEA CAN U SEE hasn't seen the scene since the Christmas Eve Eve floparoonie, but gelding owns a win off the bench, as well as one at the trip ( & over the strip ). #3 MALIBU ACTION is halved in price today and has conducted himself quite well at this dist.

 


Aqueduct      ( Current )     39-214     ( $248.60 )     Beatable Favorites     5-16  ( 31.3 % )  Favorites Win %:    93-214  ( 43.5% )( As of Sat. morning )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2018 Final ) 60-366   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-366  ( 34.2% )  +/-: -29.1% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568       ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-8 (All Final):2061-10077 ($17,281.50) Beatable Favorites : 304-1085( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3698-10180 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2146-10645 ($18,100.70) Beatable Favorites : 319-1153( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3861-10767 ( 35.9% ) +/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.5% takeout


 CoxLA2017