Profitable three bagger for us here on Sunday, and a $33 Cold Late Daily Double as well.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 10/4


Race  1

1.Blue Eighty Five


3.One With Everything

After finishing off the board in the first three starts to his career, the withe flag is run up on $200,000 Saratoga purchase #3 BLUE EIGHTY FIVE by Mott, as he can be all yours for 30 large this afternoon. Speaking of that Hall of Famer, he happens to be on a woeful 1-fer-30 or so run on this circuit of late, and while we're using, it's with a bunch of trepidation. #4 TAPORICAL displayed some stark improvement down in Wilmington a couple'a dozen+ days back, closing out the exacta, while earning a BSF that was by far the best of his career. #8 ONE WITHEVERYTHING had a debut to forget ( beneath a rider who had a meet to forget ) up in'Toga on 8/18, and is now dropped in class, while ( presumably ) going over a fast track for the 1st time. Eligible to improve.  NOTE: AS OF 11:08, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  2

1.Flint Ridge

2.Flamingo Hawk

3.Nolo Contesto

#7 FLINT RIDGE is dropped 20% in class today after four straight disappointing efforts, but the good news, is that he won by half'a dozen the last time he was essentially entered for this amount. Flavah Flav sees fit to stick around after some clumsiness in the most recent, and that victory came the only time he was in a "true" 3rd off the layoff deal. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, Gus is 4 of 7 with 2nd off the claim locally based mid level sand stock who missed the board less than 50 days ago ( $13, $8, $7 & $9 ), and what's weird is that he's 0-3 with those who were IN the money with that sort. #2 FLAMINGO HAWK has been a popular item at the claim box, as this fella has changed hands after five of his last six when eligible for such. Blinkers are now left in the shedrow as there's a mandatory hike in class this afternoon. Note the 1 for 3 mark when first to load over a glib surface. #1A NOLO CONTESTO owns a decent mark at the trip and last score came beneath Castillo.  NOTE: AS OF 11:12, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  3



3.Thrill of It

Not really feeling the heat here, however...  #3 COLLOQUY is on a sweet 6:4-0-1 run since February, and switches from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon. Gelding digs the trip & strip and rates a slight edge. #5 BOSSMAKINBOSSMOVES cuts back from two turns to one for the first time, and totes along a career best figaro for a barn that's 4 of 9 w/ optional sand stock at Aqueduct who were 1-2-3 6 to 50 days back ( $5, $6 & 7 x 2 ). We're not considering this a hike in class today, so watch out at a price. #2 THRILL OF IT is two fer five here....0-7 elsewhere... and picks up Irad. 


Race  4

1.Three Rivers

2.Good Sam

3.Into Happiness

#2 THREE RIVERS has basically made every call a winning one in both afternoon treks to the frontside, and may "Steel" another on the front end in a jammie devoid of that kind of early zip. Should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #7 GOOD SAM appears to have the best shot of upsetting the apple cart based on being two for two right here ( both beneath Ortiz ), while having yet to miss an exacta yet. Take a peek during the warmups after the recent freshening. #3 INTO HAPPINESS shoots for the grand salami this afternoon, and while we don't feel that's entirely attainable, she can most definitely pick up a check. 


Race  5

1.Gold Lightning

2.Life's an Audible

3.Steel Lute

#4 GOLD LIGHTNING was quite professional when coming from the back of the back to win in going away fashion up in Toga Town at the end of August, and did it to the tune of 31 clams. There's been a recent bullet for today's followup, and the pedigree tells us that the result that day was likely not an aberration. From a trainer stat point of view, barn is a tight three fer five with 2TS'ers who broke their maidens in a turf route 1-61 days in the rear ( no Lasix ), w/payoffs of $5 x 2 & $9. #3 LIFE'S AN AUDIBLE showed stark improvement when going over the blades for the first time a month ago, and given the figure earned that day, we'd be silly to dismiss. #12 STEEL LUTE is a maiden facing winners, but that doesn't matter too much in races such as this, and we like the mettle shown in overcoming a slow start to pick up 2nd place money when debuting up north.  OFF TURF: 4-5-7-9-2


Race  6

1.Break the Ice

2.Skate to Heaven 

3.Dee's Speedstre

#2 BREAK THE ICE finds himself at his lowest level to date, but Hennig is on the Mark with AQU based mid level dirt entrants who missed the baccala < 32 days back @ 17-1 or beneath, ans those winnahs came back $15, $9 & $6. We'll bite at double digit odds. #10 SKATE TO HEAVEN is another who's never seen these depths, and despite having bested just six over his last quintet, lures Jose to hop on. The lone one turn attempt left a lot to be desired, so we have some mixed signals here. #6 DEE'S SPEEDSTRE has partaken in the super in eight of his last nine, and that pretty much makes him a superstar in this bunch. 


Race  7

1.Get Spooled

2.Agate Road 


#6 GET SPOOLED faded to 4th on an extremely deep course in the With Anticipation, but the second place horse from that heat returned victorious, upping the prior numero by 14.2% in the process, when winning a half million dollar stakes nord des lignes. We don't feel this one necessarily needs the lead, but should be forwardly placed early on. #3 AGATE ROAD is a come from behind sort ( be it turf or dirt ), and pricey purchase is giving the impression of being a solid critter. #4 TIFAREEH took to the turf like a Toro lawnmower after a depressing dirt debut and should be able to navigate his first try in making a 2nd left.  OFF TURF: 1-3-9-2-6


Race  8

1.Pretti Extreme


3.Frosty O Toole

Despite merely splitting the field in her first start off the claim, #6 PRETTI EXTREME is still protected against such for this afternoon's third start off the pine. Six year old owns a win & a placing from as many starts off of that sort of layoff scenario, and you may get a pretty decent offering here. #2 FIRELINE got walloped in both Graded Stakes attempts, but won her two starts just before that, and while we'll give her a chance to right the ship, know that she'll take some pounding at the windows. #4 FROSTY O TOOLE is in terrible form these days, but IF you toss the turf try, AND do the same for the two graded deals, well, then what you have is another who went back to back just before that.  NOTE: AS OF 11:16, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #11 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  9


2.Capture the Flag

3.I'm Very Busy

#1 FREDO got some respect at Saratoga this summer with an $11 wire to wire score, followed up by a near sequel when losing by a the width of a cannoli at 17-1. Won't get passed over parimutually today, but we can't refuse that 4-1 morning line offering. #4 CAPTURE THE FLAG was in the rear with the gear when returning off a year long layoff, but chap may have needed that, and the nifty gate move back on the 21st tells us to give this Shug charge another shot. #6 I'M VERY BUSY has the eye cups removed after a career best fig, and we like when a trainer isn't scared to make an aggressive move like that, and as this one is in a "3rd off the bench/2nd time wonder drug" spot, we feel he's deserving of favoritism.


Race  10

1.Nano Man

2.Sorority Prank

3.Savage Spirit

#7 NANO MAN was a game and nicely clear runner up when getting his working papers two fortnights in the past, and the honest 340 Tomlinson for the dx. says that the result was likely legitimate. Grab him by the tail to get the candy. #2 SORORITY PRANK is another zippy sort who's bred quite well for today's dist., but the turf pedigree is still unproven as of yet, so we'll keep beneath. After being a bit green at the onset to his two starts to date, #5 SAVAGE SPIRIT has since received the unkindest cut of all, and may be more involved in the action early on.  OFF TURF: 12(AE)-5-15(MTO)-4-6


Aqueduct:         ( Current ): 24-85 ( $154.20 ) Beatable Favorites:   0-8 ( 0% )     Favorites Win %:  34-85    ( 40% )   ( As of Wednesday morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):  9-31  ( $75.90 )   Beatable  Favorites:  N/A               Favorites Win %:  8-28       ( 28.6% )


Saratoga:           ( Final ): 87-409  ( $821  )     Beatable  Favorites:  4-21 ( 19.1% )Favorites Win %: 147-409 ( 35.9% )   

Belmont:             ( Final ): 87-368  ( $632.90 ) Beatable  Favorites:  8-32 ( 25% )  Favorites Win %: 140-368 ( 38% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 29-154  ( $236.10 ) Beatable Favorites:   1-3 ( 33.3% ) Favorites Win %:  58-154 ( 37.7% ) 

Aqueduct             ( Final ): 97-370  ( $639.10 ) Beatable  Favorites: 9-24( 37.5% ) Favorites Win %: 139-370 ( 37.6% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2022 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568           ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-23 (All Final):3864-19269  ($32,796.80) Beatable Favorites : 447-1655( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 7257-19372( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 3948-19837 ( $33,597.40 )Beatable Favorites : 458-1702( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7273-19550( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.5%  against a 16.7% takeout