Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 10/1


Race  1


2.Alette d'Oro

3.Handle On You

#3 DUSK was a'stumblin and a'bumblin when starting things out from a disadvantageous slot in an off the turf event up north a month ago, but overcame that to best half the field. Gal gets an upgrade in the jockey dept. this afternoon, and note that the winner from that deal replicated her success in winning a stakes at The Lakes on Tuesday. Expecting an improvement with a tidier sojourn, and the turf transition shouldn't be too much of an issue. #7 ALLETE D'ORO has been performing admirably in the A.M.'s for today's lid lifter, and we never have a problem incorporating this rider into our analysis. #9 HANDLE ON YOU is another who encountered some trouble first time out, and although they haven't fared too well together, it's good to see Prat continue to ride for Rudy Rod ( a good guy, by the way ). OFF TURF: 10-4-6-9-2  NOTE: AS OF 11:11 ( Make a wish !! ), due to this race being run on a fast track, our amended selections will be 16-3-9.


Race  2

1.Sea Streak

2.Maximillions Dream

3.Change of Command

#12 SEA STREAK crushes.  #3 MAXIMILLIONS DREAM has some really nifty moves on the worktab for today's lid lifter, and $7,500 bred animal went for nearly 25 times that amount at Ocala back in March. 423 Tomlinson figure is as heft as all getout, and of the four members of the  family tree we were able to unearth, two were victorious in their bows, w/ the other two winning their second & third starts. #6 CHANGE OF COMMAND flashed a bit of early hoof in the debut, and can land a share. 


Race  3

1.Sheriff Bianco

2.Cody's Wish

3.High Oak

Disappointing rendition of the Vosburgh here, and although the fave should lay over this bunch, we'll land elsewhere.  #3 SHERIFF BIANCO ( Benny's Brother ? ) has elicited a bit of "Why is this horse here?" talk on social media, but in reality, he by no means disgraced himself in the lone G2 affair, and crashed the fiesta in all three of his other stakes events. Gelding digs it here, as the 11:4-5-2 mark belies, and in a race where 5 of 6 were in an optional event in at least one of their last two, who's to say this one can't make some noise should Cody be off his game once again. #6 CODY'S WISH was a going away winner the only time he went from two turns to one, and has won his last duet after a defeat. Logical. #5 HIGH OAK may plod along for another check. 


Race  4




#1 CAZADERO was curiously spotted on the sod after a decent dirt career ( 8:3-2-0-1 ), and while the results when going over the blades were nothing to sneeze at, lets's just say we're glad to see him back on the main. Blinkers are now left on the backside, and gelding is made available for purchase for the 1st time. #6 SWIFTSURE went coast to coast like butter and toast when facing what we would consider to be a tougher grouping on closing weekend up at The Spa, and we see no reason to leave outta the mix.  #3 OUTLIER has done nice work at today's distance of ground and switches from an apprentice to a journeyman today. 


Race  5


2.Sterling Silver

3.Caramel Swirl 

What #4 BEGUINE lacks in proven Graded Stakes speed is that she's gone all the way in her last two ( and nearly her last troika ) outside of those ranks, but with a dearth of early zip signed on, we wouldn't be surprised to see this one be able to walk the dog a bit, and surprise at a fair mutuel. Gal is one of two off a break in the action and said score came in one of two heats beneath today's helmsman. Things to like here. #2 STERLING SILVER has lost her last octet in the stakes ranks, but likes earning checks and LOVES The Big A. #1 CARAMEL SWIRL has hit the board in all three "true" starts off the pine, and was a convincing victress the only time she was first to load in a one turn dirt deal. 


Race  6

1.Pioneering Spirit

2.Adhamo ( Ire )

3.Soldier Rising ( GB )

Despite having won four of five ( with the lone blemish being a double digit loss in the Sword Dancer ), we believe #8 PIONEERING SPIRIT may be neglected a bit parimutually in this year's rendition of the Turf Classic. Amazingly, this fella could've been all yours for 40 large -- as a MAIDEN -- just a bit over four months back, and is now eligible to add $275,000 to the 350K ( est. ) he's earned this year. Although he rated a bit last out, we wouldn't be shocked to see this one forwardly placed early on. Watch out, suckahs !  #4 ADHAMO (IRE) owns a win and a placing from as many legit second off the L/O jamborees, and has a boat load ( or is it "boatload" ? ) of back class. #2 SOLDIER RISING (GB) can complete the "New York/Dublin/London" tri, based on the nifty overall mark beneath Jose.  OFF TURF: 1-2-3-5-6


Race  7


2.Costa Terra


#3 ALGIERS ( a classic 1938 movie with Hedy Lamarr ( "That's Hedleyyyy"  hasn't been seen since placing in the $12,000,000 World Cup back in March, but chestnut chap had won three of four dirt deals prior to that, and Jesus, do we really need a reason to use the World's finest jockey in this wide open feature ?  #6 COSTA TERRA has been performing "miracles" since being claimed by Rice back in mid May, posting four ( cumulative ) career best figaros, and should be an obvious playah here. #8 TYSON took a bite out of 12% of the pot in the Jockey Club, when going over the main for the first time, and the bloodlines tell us this extremely game sort could have a bright future over the brown stuff.  NOTE: AS OF 11:15, THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  8

1.Be the Boss

2.Rally Squirrel 

3.Locke and Key 

#2 BE THE BOSS is extremely sharp these days -- having placed in near identical spots over his last two calls to the post -- and gets mild improvement from T-Gaff to I. Ortiz this afternoon. We don't see this one 'losing' this race, in as much someone else stepping up to win. #3 RALLY SQUIRREL is aggressively hiked after being plucked for 16K in Toga Town on the 3rd, and yeah, we know that he's lost by a whopping 72 lengths in his last duo, but goes one turn for the first time, and 'is' in fact two of four on the sandy stuff. Could spice things up some. #4 LOCKE AND KEY has been transferred from Begg to Ryerson after back to back wins ( Huh ? ), and although the BSF's are a bit on the low side, we'd be silly to leave out. 


Race  9

1.Steel Lute


3.Vino Rouge

#2 STEEL LUTE overcame a few obstacles to procure 2nd place money in the Adirondacks on the 20th of August, and the nice pedigree ( along with the breeding price ) says that there's some upside here. Waiting for Prat to get on a run any day now...  #7 SPENDALOT ( uncoupled barnmate w/ the above ) is a full to present day runner Consumer Spending ( 11:6-2-1 on the verde ), and said equine placed in the overture before following that up with a tally. Oh. She's also related to another who's 4:1-1-1-1 over the blades, and there are some things to like here. #5 VINO ROUGE bested more than half of the allotment at 20-1 first time out, and it's good to see Johnny stick around.  OFF TURF: 2-4-5-1-11  NOTE: AS OF 11:19, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN ON A FAST TRACK, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WOLL BE 13-16-5.


Race  10


2.Stella Mars

3.Lady Jasmine

#4 SWEETNESS hasn't faced the starter since going all the way in her curtain raiser nearly an annum ago, but new shedrow knows how to have 'em prepped for the comebackers, and Lasix is now a part of the makeup. Obviously, you need to take a gander pre race, but the adjusted Beyer from that score was a 79.3, soooooo.... your move. #3 STELLA MARS is on a sweet 4:2-1-1 run of late, and owns a solid mark at today's distance of ground. #2 LADY JASMINE gets an upgrade in the saddle this afternoon & is as good as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 10-5-15-9-2   NOTE: AS OF 11:23, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN ON A FAST TRACK, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WOLL BE 13-16-4.


Race  11

1.Alley's Song

2.Bank On Belle

3.Sol Emperatriz

#7 ALLEY'S SONG has been working quite decently in anticipation of today's initial afternoon trek to the frontside, and lands in a fairly cushy spot for such. J/T combination have been doing better together than apart in Queens over the last two years, as well. Slight edge. #1 BANK ON BELLE is another firster, and this one has a bullet gate move on the docket, which is something that always merits inclusion. #10 SOL EMPERATRIZ owns a solid 403 Tommy and draws ideally while toting along some nice works. 


Aqueduct:         ( Current ): 21-75 ( $133.90 ) Beatable Favorites:   0-8 ( 0% )     Favorites Win %:  30-75    ( 35.3% )( As of Friday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ):  9-31   ( $75.90 )  Beatable  Favorites:  N/A               Favorites Win %:  8-28       ( 28.6% )


Saratoga:           ( Final ): 87-409  ( $821  )     Beatable  Favorites:  4-21 ( 19.1% )Favorites Win %: 147-409 ( 35.9% )   

Belmont:             ( Final ): 87-368  ( $632.90 ) Beatable  Favorites:  8-32 ( 25% )  Favorites Win %: 140-368 ( 38% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 29-154  ( $236.10 ) Beatable Favorites:   1-3 ( 33.3% ) Favorites Win %:  58-154 ( 37.7% ) 

Aqueduct             ( Final ): 97-370  ( $639.10 ) Beatable  Favorites: 9-24( 37.5% ) Favorites Win %: 139-370 ( 37.6% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2022 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568           ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-23 (All Final):3864-19269  ($32,796.80) Beatable Favorites : 447-1655( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 7257-19372( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 3948-19837 ( $33,597.40 )Beatable Favorites : 458-1702( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7273-19550( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.5%  against a 16.7% takeout