We took it on the teeth Sunday, but we aim to finish the meet on a strong note !!

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #2 From Hello  Race 6 - #1A Callaloo

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/24 - Closing Week


Race  1

1.Secret Rules

2.Money Mike

3.Twenty Four Mamba

#1 SECRET RULES hasn't been in action in a couple'a months, but this fragile six year old is 7:1-4-1 off a break in the action, has done some nice work at this locale, found the line first the only tine he was entered for 40K or less, and gets an appreciable upgrade in the apprentice area today. Factor in a two for three mark when loading first, and you have the makings of a decent price to start out the week. #6 MONEY MIKE hasn't been seen since finishing in the back half of the pack when in a race claimed from in mid January, and is now entered for the same price from that day. Al Gold will need this one to at least complete the exacta to show a $2,400+ profit on the transaction, should another claim ensue, so you'd have to think this one should be ready to go. #5 TWENTY FOUR MAMBA has partaken in the exacta in 8 of 15 thus far, and goes over a fast track for just the second time; another runner coming back at/below the purchase price from when last seen. 


Race  2

1.Omerta Code

2.Long Term

3.Pioneering Spirit

#2 OMERTA CODE bested only one in this race 50 days back, but adds blinkers off of that disappointment, and has posted ( compared to the rest of this allotment ) three decent dirt numbers prior to that, and rates a slight edge in a race that's a bit difficult to decipher. #4 LONG TERM takes the biggest drop in the biz today in making his second start off the layoff. Will take some pounding at the windows, but caveat emptor. #8 PIONEERING SPIRIT ( second part of the uncoupled entry with 'Term ) is another one on the plunge, and has also lost his procreating abilities since last in action nearly nine months back. Not the best of betting races, that's for sure.


Race  3

1.Midnight Rosie

2.Georgie's Ladies 

3.Mrs Bell

#1 MIDNIGHT ROSIE hasn't made an afternoon trek to the frontside since having a claim voided more than three months ago, but filly is showing an uncharacteristic best of 148 gate move on Saint Patrick's Day for today's comebacker, and drops yet again. May get overlooked parimutually. #6 GEORGIE'S LADIES has been up the track in both starts to date, but may have needed the most recent, and four year old has a maturity edge over several signed on. Could spice things up a touch. #5 MRS BELL has only missed the superfecta once in seven starts to date, and that's reason enough to include with these.  NOTE: AS OF 3:48 P.M. WEDNESDAY, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION WITH #2 BEING A BEATABLE FAVORITE.


Race  4



3.Thrill of It

#1 ASYMMETRIC has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but got the job done after the first of them, and there's a sizzling breeze on display for this return. Live shot, but exercise a bit of caution, as the maiden breaker came when getting juice for the 1st time. #4 BRACIOLE shoots for the hat trick here, and given the 6:3-3-0 record in Ozone Park, we're seeing it as being well within reach. #5 THRILL OF IT digs it here ( 3:1-1-1 ) and has recently been gelded. Puncher's chance if able to shake loose early. 


Race  5

1.Chloe Rose

2.Vegas Weekend 

3.Shea On a Mission

#2 CHLOE ROSE took the mandatory hike in class after being snagged for a double sawski two back, and after getting walloped that day, is entered at 25% below the purchase price this afternoon. Being she lost by less than 2 lengths vs. tougher ( 60.5 adjusted speed figure ), who's to say she can't dance with these ?   You can essentially say the same thing for #4 VEGAS WEEKEND as the above, and given this one's overall consistency throughout the years, we have no qualms incorporating. #9 SHEA ON A MISSION has been MIA for quite some time, but is 2:1-0-0-1 in "true" starts off a respite, and Charlie fares well with those off extended breaks. 


Race  6


2.Pine Valley 

3.Bert Bert Bert 

#2 COLLOQUY found the class drop to his liking 33 days in the rear, as he held on by less than a length vs. conditional platers, and sheds four pounds off that tally ( something we always dig ). I wouldn't fret too much about the hike back up against starter foes, as the Beyer earned in the win is quite comparable versus the main contenders in this spot. #6 PINE VALLEY was a snazzy sheepskin earner back in December, but was sent to the sidelines immediately afterwards, and has had two gaps in the worktab since. We won't be reading too much with the poor performance in his return engagement, as his other wet track start was a mess as well, and we're expecting a rebound should there be a glib surface today. #8 BERT BERT BERT has gone 49-61-78 on a track labeled FST, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. Charlie charge goes from a bug to a journeyman, and this one's best work has come at today's distance of ground.  NOTE: AS OF 12:09, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION, WITH #1A BEING A BEATABLE FAVORITE.


Race  7


2.Les Bon Temps

3.Maple Leaf Mel

#6 BANTERRA has alternated losses and wins over his last quintet, so today should be a score, right ? Well, if only the game was that simple. That aside, there's a nice DRF Formulator stat in play with this one, as The As Man is a tight 4:3-0-1 with ungraded sand stock not getting the miracle drug, off breaks of 51-71 days ( $4, $5 & $6 ). Filly digs the trip & strip, and is a viable alternative to the fave. #7 LES BON TEMPS is 7:3-1-2-1 thus far, closed out the tri at 15-1 in her one "true" second off the shelf jammie, and likes this distance and oval. Can't fault those taking a favorable view. Rosario takes the northern sojourn today to ride #4 MAPLE LEAF MEL, and we can see why, as this one has gone pillar to post in both of her outings last year. Wire job possible once again, but the break is nothing to sneeze at. 


Race  8


2.Flutie Flakes

3.Bad Connection

Three decent sets of trainer statistics in play for today's finale, so let's get right to 'em.  #1 FRANCA undergoes a gamut of changes today: Layoff, first time dirt, first time Lasix, first time tag, and first time sprint, and red hot Atras is two fer six w/ 2TS'ers on the Aqueduct dirt, getting the "Big L" for the first time ( $6 & $10 ). #6 FLUTIE FLAKES: 'Miah is 5:2-3-0 with second timers on the sand ( no Lasix ) seeking their first win ( $10 & $11 ). #10 BAD CONNECTION: Rudy Rod is 3-8 with those following up their bow on the dirt, who missed the baccala 20-50 days back ( ridden by Franco ), getting the miracle med ( $9, $10 & $13 ). NOTE: AS OF 12:09, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

Aqueduct            ( Current ):   86-343  ( $560.50 )   Beatable  Favorites: 7-17 ( 41.2% )  Favorites Win %:    127-343 ( 37% )( As of Friday Morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ):      0-6       ( $0 )          Beatable  Favorites:  N/A                  Favorites Win %:      0-6        ( 0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2022 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3564-17968 ($30,467.70)  Beatable Favorites : 425-1575( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 6773-18041( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3648-18596  ( $31,280.20 )Beatable Favorites : 440-1641( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 6783-18285 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout