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Profitable three bagger for us here yesterday ( $15, $6 & $8 ), along with an Ice Cold $38 Double, two Ice Cold Exactas of $59 & $55, and an Ice Cold $122 Triple. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #1 Saint Tapit


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 6/26

 

Race  1

1.Guns Blazing

2.Bay Jewel

3.Grudge

#2 GUNS BLAZING has been kept in jail since the April 22nd purchase, and now comes back at the same level of the showing that afternoon. Filly had hit the board in five of six prior to the respite, and owns a nice mark at the trip as well. #5 BAY JEWEL finished next to last in her first off the claim/off the bench deal, but is one of two in second off the shelf engagements & has done okay beneath today's jock. #4 GRUDGE finds herself at an all time low. 

 

Race  2

1.Lollygag

2.Coolcatsnkittens

3.Saratoga Gaze

#6 LOLLYGAG ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) spiced up the tri at 45-1 last time out & is a price play in a heat with no first draft eliminations. #3 COOLCATSNKITTENS took to the turf like a Toro lawnmower when returning off a half'a year hibernation, and while a bounce is always possible in a "second off the break/second time Lasix" scenario, we'd be remiss in excluding. #5 SARATOGA GAZE hasn't faced the starter since turkey time, and is an obvious factor if sound & fully cranked up.  OFF TURF: 4-3-6-2-7

 

Race  3

1.Control Group

2.Troubleshooter

3.Tiergan

#1 CONTROL GROUP has been beset by back layoff lines, so ight off the bat, it would behoove you to take a gander pre race. That being said, this one is two of five off the bench, and owns a sweet "declining" mark of 12:5-3-1 at today's distance of ground. #3 TROUBLESHOOTER won her lone start at today's trip, and note that it came the the only time he was in a second off the L/O scenario on a glib surface. #4 TIERGAN owns a nice collection of recent figaros and digs the scenery here. 

 

Race  4 

1.Golden Alchemist

2.Feliciano

3.Triple Elvis

#5 GOLDEN ALCHEMIST has a 2nd best of 129 gate move for today's curtain raising, and right off the bat, that merits inclusion. Brown is confident enough to ship this one up from the Shore, and recognize that this one went for nearly three times the 55K stud fee at auction. Note that 5 of the 6 immediate members of the family tree got their first win within their first three outings, so expecting a good effort here -- especially with Flavah Flav in the irons. #3 FELICIANO had no palpable excuse for the recent disappointment, but was a solid third first time out ( which is saying something for a Zito runner ) and could jazz things up a bit. #4 TRIPLE ELVIS ( uncoupled entrymate with our top selection ) has been MIA for quite some time, but gets the wonder drug for today's comebacker, and is an obvious threat if able to get back to the adjusted #'s from way back when.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 SAINT TAPIT

 

Race  5

1.Get the Candy

2.Translate

3.My Sweet Wife

#8 GET THE CANDY was a gamely & well clear runner up in her lone "2nd off the absence" affair, and got her photo taken the only time she toted this tonnage. Know her early but have the Pepto handy late. #2 TRANSLATE is but a head shy of being a poyfect three of three off a sabbatical, and what the hell's wrong with that ? #12 MY SWEET WIFE has been off since April Fool's Day, but is one of three after a break, and fell short by just a neck the only time she was last to load.  OFF TURF: 3-1-2-8-6  NOTE: AS OF 10:59, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Sul Pharoah

2.Accretive 

3.Naked and Famous

#5 SUL PHAROAH has been in the HPP ( Horsewitness Protection Program ) since late January, and although the initial dirt try left a bit to be desired, we always give a runner two opportunities to prove himself under a particular set of circumstances, and this one is bred to do good things on the stuff. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, when it comes to his maiden special weight dirt stock off breaks of 58-238 days, Mott is two for three with those at BEL, and ( separately ) is three of five with those ridden by Jose ( $17, $4 x 2, $5 & $6 ). #8 ACCRETIVE has been conducting his morning affairs in a professional manner for today's debut, and pricy purchase draws well. #1 NAKED AND FAMOUS has a maturity edge over the entire allotment & has been working well for his initial spin. 

 

Race  7

1.Panster

2.Shiraz

3.Phantom Smoke

#6 PANSTER got his Polaroid snapped in his one & only 3rd off the break jammie, and C-Squared has won with 50% of his eight locally based sod sprinters at this level ( ridden by Irad ) w/mutuels of $6 x 2 & $4 x 2. #1 SHIRAZ is a bit of a nibbler by rote, but we dig the 4:1-1-1 ledger in 2nd off the shelf heats, an Maker is an honest 3 fer 7 with runners of this ilk ( any track ) at 16-1 or less ( $4, $5 & $11 ). #7 PHANTOM SMOKE has been away for half the length of the calendar, but lost by just a half length in his one start off a layoff when going over firm ground, and has recently lost his procreating abilities.  OFF TURF: 10-5-6-2-4

 

Race  8 

1.The Important One

2.Miss Jimmy

3.Bank Sting

#2 THE IMPORTANT ONE is two of two in Elmont, and The As Man has that same record when it comes to his ungraded dirt dashers ridden by Lezcano off breaks of > 50 days. Mild choice in the day's feature. #10 MISS JIMMY is 2:1-1-0 in 2nd off the disappearance heats, 3:1-1-0 in this zip code, and it's difficult to ignore the sublime declining 11:6-3-1 boxscore at this distance. Not hopeless by any stretch of the imagination. #7 BANK STING is an unblemished two for two off of this kind of layoff setup and is a deserving fave. 

 

Race  9 

1.Smokin' Hot Kitty

2.Oak Loves a Fight

3.I'll Go All In

#9 SMOKIN HOT KITTY showed a bit of improvement from her first start to the followup, and now takes the biggest drop in the land. Jockey/Trainer combo have done better together than apart, and should appreciate the extra panel. #6 OAK LOVES A FIGHT has missed the superfecta in her last quintet, but barn is on fire, and Ortiz sees fit to give her another shot. #12 I'LL GO ALL IN completed the tri in a career best performance the only time she was in a "true" 3rd off the respite situation, and is another taking the plunge, as a Philadelphia Park rider spend some gas & toll money to get aboard this one.  OFF TURF : 16(MTO)- 1-4-3-2 

 
Belmont             ( Current ): 75-335  ( $455 ) Beatable   Favorites    5-23 ( 21.7% ) Favorites  Win %: 122-335 ( 36.4% )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 6-28      ( $50 )   Beatable    Favorites:   0-1   ( 0% )     Favorites  Win %:  8-26      ( 30.7% )

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Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


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