SiteLock

KevinCoxItem


Just one winner yesterday, but it came back 17 clams. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


of

Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out in these challenging times.

I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, Parler @BrooklynCowboy, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Saratoga - 7/24

 

Race  1

1.Good Culture 

2.Ashaar

3.Giocare

#2 GOOD CULTURE takes the obligatory hike in class after being snagged for 30 large down in Elmont, and gets a slight jockey upgrade while going two turns on a fast track, which were the conditions for his best effort to date. Trainer ( from an itty bitty sampling ) is two of four with freshly purchased dirt stayers at this level who crashed the party last time out, with payouts of $4 & $6. Both the #6 ASHAAR & the #1 GIOCARE are backed by identical barn stats which has The Toddster at three for five with runners at this level going long on the sand who missed the board 6-50 days in the rear ( $6 x 2 & $5 ). We'll side with the former for the place spot because of the slight edge in odds. 

 

 

Race  2

1.So Enchanting

2.Freedomofthepress

3.Miss Bonnie T 

#3 SO ENCHANTING has hit the board in each start to date, and that includes a nice effort off the shelf when getting the wonder drug administered for the first time. Gal has been a bit of a money burner, but we have no issues with taking a swing at 5-1. #2 FREEDOMOFTHEPRESS ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but was last seen showing behind two next out victresses, and is now in receipt of the big "L" in today's comebacker. #8 MISS BONNIE T has lost by a neck or less in four of her last five, but we'll keep beneath because of Johnny's frigid start.  OFF TURF: 5-1-3-7-2

 

 

Race  3

1.Universal Payday

2.Cantrell Hill

3.Popizar

#1 UNIVERSAL PAYDAY is 2:1-0-1 off a break in the action, ( with said tally coming right here, with T-Gaff, and from the pine, no less ) and as a matter of fact, jockey/trainer combo are two fer five when partnering up at the Spa ( on the dirt ), w/payoffs of $12 & $71 !! #3 CANTRELL HILL overcame some trouble to get up in time vs. slightly weaker at CD 34 days back, and is a logical threat once again. #4 POPIZAR has been a popular item at the claim box of late, having changed addresses after three of his last four trips to the frontside, and 7YO gets a big time jockey change after losing by less than a length last time out. 

 

 

Race  4 

1.Count Down

2.Lyrical Poet

3.Clamor

#3 COUNT DOWN went coast to coast like butter on bread to procure the sheepskin in a lifetime best performance on Independence Day, and although he got away with a purdy soft middle quarter of 23 & 3 that afternoon, this one usually gives a good account of himself, so we're thinking the score wasn't much of an aberration. Repeat in reach for Duggan today, who deserves more stock. #2 LYRICAL POET has done very little wrong to date, and was last seen sandwiched between to next out winners at BEL @ the end of April, and they improved by an avg. of 2.5 pts. in their next affairs. #1 CLAMOR completes our "Blastoff" triple based on the win in his only start when having blinks added.  OFF TURF: 6-3-4-7-1

 

 

Race  5

1.Malathaat

2.Rockpaperscissors 

3.Maracuja

We guarantee you that at least two of our three will hit the board in this year's rendition of the CCA Oaks.  #1 MALATHAAT has won all five starts to date -- at four different locales -- on two different track conditions -- beneath three different jockeys -- going one turn to two -- breaking from the rail or towards the outside -- and off a layoff or not. Love the versatility, as well as the fact that the runner up from the Oaks got her Polaroid taken when next loaded -- replicating the prior figaro. Only knock is Johnny being on the duck as of this writing ( with few minor checks as well ), but he should work out a good trip in this truncated allotment. #3 ROCKPAPERSCISSORS is a bit light from a numbers perspective, but is on the improve, and shoots for an ambitious hat trick here. #2 MARACUJA may grind out a share. 

 

 

Race  6 

1.Faith Runner

2.Watasha

3.Southern Sense ( AE )

#6 FAITH RUNNER begins his professional working life in today's 6th, and while the worktab doesn't inspire, $150,000 bred animal went for double that in Lexington ten months back. While the two sibs to race didn't do much, mommy won the second start of career, daddy did the same, the maternal granddam falls into that category, and the maternal grandsire got the job done at first asking. But as the late Billy Mays said, "But wait -- there's more !!" According to DRF Formulator, Dallas Stewart is 4 of 9 with maiden special weight male two year old firsters running WITHOUT Lasix at 24-1 or less, and just look at the prices -- $30, $26, $12 & $13 !!  The more we type...  #7 WATASHA is another expensive freshman, but this one has a bullet gate move on the docket, and that ALWAYS merits inclusion. #11 SOUTHERN SENSE (AE) needs one to get the sniffles in order to make it into the body of the race, but should that come to fruition, will be led over by an hombre who's 2-6 with 2TS'ers who were off the board on the dirt running sans the miracle drug ( $54 & $5 ). 

 

 

Race  7

1.Calibrate

2.Space Launch

3.Sifting Sands ( GB )

#7 CALIBRATE has shown improvement over his last septet, and although going over the blades for the first time in this spot, is just about as well bred for the stuff as the dirt that he's been performing well on. Furthermore, "The As-Man" ( from a tiny study ) is two of three when putting his optional routers on the gramma for the 1st time at 14-1 or less ( ITM in the most recent ). They payouts came back $7 & $6, and we're hoping this one drifts up a bit from 6-1. #11 SPACE LAUNCH has been befallen by a pair of L/O lines, but by and large has performed quite well, and pre layoff pilot comes back, which is something we always dig. #3 SIFTING SANDS (GB) got the job done in his only try off the bench, and that's cause enough to include.  OFF TURF: 8-2-1-9-4

 

 

Race  8 

1.Naked On the Beach 

2.Midnight Choir

3.Ego Trip ( Ire ) 

Not really feeling the heat from this deal, so maybe go get a drink at The Big Red Spring.   #8 NAKED ON THE BEACH ( Giggity ) looked good in the debut, when outrunning her whopping 35-1 offering to lose by a buck and a half versus a similar grouping. Those who jumped on the bandwagon second time out were howling at the Twin Spires after this miss set baccala ablaze in besting only a horse and an ambulance at 9/2. Casse is now calling the shots, and as we see he's training for the likes of the Whitney Estate these days, you can presume ( Assume? ) he won't be sending over too many short animals. #5 MIDNIGHT CHOIR bested half the field right outta the box in the fall, and adds the hood and the juice today. Expect some improvement today. #9 EGO TRIP (IRE) makes the ol' "Newcastle to Saratoga" shuffle today, and adds Lasix for such; would be no surprise.  OFF TURF: 9-1-8-7-2

 

 

Race  9 

1.Caramel Swirl

2.Flash Magic

3.Glass ceiling

#6 CARAMEL SWIRL was tossed into the deep end of the pool after five in the money finishes to begin her career, and got waffled in the Eight Belles ( a WONDERFUL horse, by the way ) before being sent to the sidelines. Filly's best work has come beneath today's pilot, and Mott has won with both of his allowance based dirt stock off breaks of 51-117 days @ 5-1 or beneath ( ridden by Junior ). The returns in that sampling were $15 & $11, and gal has been working well for the comebacker. #8 FLASH MAGIC has yet to finish out of the exacta, and who are we to rock that boat? Oh...20% clan is two for three w/allowance dirt dashers who broke their maiden 8-50 days back & are 18-1 or undah ( $4 x 2 ); solid inclusion. #1 GLASS CEILING is 2 for 5 at this trip ( 1-13 at other distances of ground ), and is logical to land a share. 

 

 

Race  10

1.Flower Point 

2.Caravel

3.Robin Sparkles

#5 FLOWER POINT went from zero to hero to best optional foes going 7/8th's at Belmont on June 19th, and despite the hike in class, rates a chance here. #1 CARAVEL is 8:6-0-2 lifetime, and how the hell can we toss a runner lime that? #2 ROBIN SPARKLES has oodles of speed to spare, and sheds five pounds off a tally, which is something that makes us all warm & fuzzy inside. Looks to be the most interesting race of the day.  OFF TURF: 1-2-3-6-5

 

 

Race  11

1.Choose Happiness

2.My Lips Are Sealed 

3.Emma and I

#8 CHOOSE HAPPINESS has been a part of the suoerfecta in 8 of 9, and the last win came beneath today's pilot. More things to like than knock, so we'll use on top in a finale with a lot to desire. #7 MY LIPS ARE SEALED has some sexy looking running lines, and three of the five runners who surrounded this one in the most recent came back to win when next in action. #2 EMMA AND I digs the trip a bit and can grab a share.  OFF TURF: 1-2-8-5-6

 

 

Saratoga          ( Current ): 14-70      ( $125.90 ) Beatable Favorites    2-4   ( 50% ) Favorites Win %:     25-70     ( 36.4% ) ( As of Saturday morning )  

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-27        ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1    ( 0% )  Favorites  Win %:    11-26     ( 42.3% )


Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2923-15087 ($25,472.60)  Beatable Favorites : 371-1361( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5706-15169 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.5%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3008-15655 ($26,291.80)   Beatable Favorites : 386-1429( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 5889-15756 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


coxbel2019