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Back to back profitable days for us here, as we netted a grand slam yesterday ( which included a controversial dead heat in the 9th ).

NOTE: SHOULD ANY OF THE DIRT SELECTIONS BE RUN ON A FAST TRACK, THEN OUR ORIGINAL CHOICES APPLY. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #4 Madita ( Ger )  Race 9 - #7 Blue Prize ( Arg )


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Saratoga - 8/18

 

Race  1

1.Shiraz

2.Blessed Halo

3.Siena Magic

#5 SHIRAZ lost by just a half'a length in his lone "third off the L/O" try and closed out the triple the only time he was up for sale. Blase' choice in an opener that leaves a bit to be desired. #1 BLESSED HALO hasn't faced the starter since Christmas Eve Eve, but is 3:1-1-1 off the shelf and completed the triple in his lone foray from the pine; gelding is purdy familiar with Joel as well. #4 SIENA MAGIC has been away for quite a while, but popular item at the claim box ( snagged after three of his last five ) lost by only a neck at 14-1 in his lone spin off a break, and is ( purportedly ) catching firm ground for only the 2nd time.  OFF TURF: 4-5-1-3(MTO)-2  NOTE: AS OF 12:22, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 2-4-3.

 

Race  2

1.Riot Worthy 

2.Zecha

3.Ivy's College Fund 

Just a ghastly affair here. #7 RIOT WORTHY is a nibbler by nature, but has done some decent work here ( 3:1-2-0 ), at the trip ( 4:2-0-1 ), and when breaking from the outside ( 6:1-3-0 ). This one encountered some traffic last time out & is about 5% better on a fast track than a wet one. #2 ZECHA was overmatched in the most recent, but had partaken in the super over the prior quartet ( at odds of 41-1, 7-1, 11-1 & 46-1 ), and in a race chock full of question marks, you can do a lot worse. #3 IVY'S COLLEGE FUND shoots for the grand slam today.  NOTE: AS OF 12:25, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET OUR SELECTIONS ARE NOW 2-4-1.

 

Race  3

1.Inveterate

2.Sharing

3.In Good Spirits

We're solely digging the top two here... #2 INVETERATE flashed a touch of early speed in the career starter, but faded late in the game on the local main track at odds of 5-1. We've always had a fondness for failing dirt dashers stretching out on the sod for the first time, and this one's paternal granddam was 5 for 12 on the green stuff. Interesting to see Rosario climb on here. #7 SHARING missed by just a neck in the troubled bow two fortnights ago, and while this one should appreciate the stretchout as well as getting off the rail, you need to realize that Graham Motion is 0-14 with 2TS'ers/FTR'ers at this level & surface ( ITM last out ). #4 IN GOOD SPIRITS is an $85,000 bred animal who went for 200 large across the street a year ago, and is well bred for this sorta deal.  OFF TURF: 7-5-4-8-3  NOTE: AS OF 12:28, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-7-2.

 

Race  4 

1.Pugilist

2.Coffee Crush

3.Tapping Pearl

#3 PUGILIST all the way. #6 COFFEE CRUSH has a good shot if the above gets hooked up early on. #5 TAPPING PEARL tries the hood and the lawn for the first time here, as they pull out a couple of stops with a well bred runner who's only beaten home two in his last three.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 MADITA (GER)  OFF TURF: 8-5-1A-7(MTO)-1

 

Race  5

1.Palace Avenger

2.Wedontbelieveher

3.Shanny Go Nanny

We'll blast off with the 3-2-1 triple in today's 5th...  #3 PALACE AVENGER is up for grabs for the first time this afternoon and is tactically drawn outside of what we feel will be her two main rivals. Mild choice. #2 WEDONTBELIEVEHER was a gritty runner up in the career starter, and that occurred despite the rider losing the reins for a brief spell. Gal is smartly hiked up in class today by Anthiny, and Tommy says that the figure earned was legitimate. #1 SHANNY GO NANNY owns a 383 Tomlinson figure for today's overture and brings a couple'a nice breezes along for the ride as well.  NOTE: AS OF 12:30, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-6-5.

 

Race  6 

1.Finite

2.Water White

3.Mrs. Danvers

These three & no more for all our rolling action. #4 FINITE was a lively runner up here right outta the box a month ago, and The As-Man is a swift 4 for 7 with those fitting ALL these exact parameters ( $3, $4, $6 & $7 ). Grab her by the tail to get the glory. #2 WATER WHITE has a couple of nicely hidden morning moves amidst a bevy of other breezes for the onset to her career here, and can also boast a healthy 383 Tommy figure. This one is a ha;f to a 1 for 1 dirt dasher ( 111K ) & another who was 1-4 doing such. #6 MRS. DANVERS finished above our top choice first out, but why would you accept lower odds hoping that she doesn't have another awkward beginning?

 

Race  7

1.Have Another

2.New York's Finest

3.Mission Command

#8 HAVE ANOTHER was kept in jail after the June 27th claim (  which was a solid effort ) and is now brought back at exactly the same price by Cousin Brucie. Shotcaller enlists another bug today, and this barn ( from an itty bitty sampling ) is two for three with freshly purchased turf dashers returning off breaks of 37-67 days ( mutuels of $70 & $5 ). Slimmest of margins in a race where we were unable to eliminate anyone at first glance. #4 NEW YORK'S FINEST ( dig it ) is a perfect 4 for 4 on a firm Mellon, and how the hell do you exclude a runner like that? You don't. #1 MISSION COMMAND rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 1-8-2(MTO)-10-5  NOTE: AS OF 12:33, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 10-1-2.

 

Race  8 

1.Star Swept

2.Connectivity

3.Hit a Provisional

#5 STAR SWEPT has been befallen by three layoff lines after just as many calls to the post, but one pf those resulted in a win ( against the boys, no less ), and on the whole, the numbers are heading in the rigt direction. Slim edge. #1 CONNECTIVITY is wheeled right back in a week and a half after blitzing open foes over this course, and pre-claim pilot comes back. #10 HIT A PROVISIONAL has yet to miss the super & is 2nd off the shelf today.  OFF TURF: 1-6-12(MTO)-2(MTO)-7  NOTE: AS OF 12:40, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-4-9(MTO).

 

Race  9 

1.Pacific Wind

2.Alberobello

3.Blue Prize ( Arg )

Once again, we won't be deving any deeper than this triad. #1 PACIFIC WIND is 5:2-1-2 off a break, and Brown owns a 3 fer 7 mark with ungraded dirt stayers in the 51-91 day bracket ( $7, $6 & $10 ). It's worth mentioning that the two wins & one placing from that study came from just as many starts when staring from the pine. #5 ALBEROBELLO is one for two off the bench ( regardless of the DRF's new layoff line structure, we have our own in the heading ) & won his only try at The Spa. The last was extremely disappointing, but we'll leave in the mix.  BEATABLE FAVORITE/3RD CHOICE: #7 BLUE PRIZE (ARG) is definitely the class here, but barn is a bizarre 0-11 with 2-1 or < dirt stock who were IN the money last time out. Mixed signals.  NOTE: AS OF 12:44, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-5-4.

 

Race  10

1.Kickin Kimberly

2.Seeking Revenge

3.Love and Love

We close out the week with a couple of decent DRF Formulator stats, so let's get right to 'em. #1 KICKIN KIMBERLY: Rudy Rod ( 19% day to day ) is 3-10 with locally based mid level turf routers who missed the board less than eight weeks ago & are 12-1 or lower.The winners came back a robust $24, $12 & $14 and there's a sub category of 1-2 w/Irad. #4 SEEKING REVENGE: Stephens more than doubles his normative 14% batting averge with runners of this ilk at 10-1 or < off breaks of less than a month ( 6 for 21 with a $2.21 return on investment ). #7 LOVE AND LOVE is in with a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump for the 1st time and may jazz things up underneath.  OFF TURF: 5-2-6-8-3(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:46 OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 8-7-2.

  


Saratoga           ( Current ):    41-274       ( $283.40 ) Beatable Favorites  7-19   ( 36.8% )      Favorites Win %:  102-274  ( 37.2% )(As of Sunday morning)

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Belmont Spring     ( Final ):    90-447      ( $697.60 )  Beatable Favorites  6-33 ( 18.2% )      Favorites Win %:   172-447 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-32         ( $54.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:    9-32     ( 28.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-377   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 128-377  ( 34.0% )  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2258-11020 ($18,829.30) Beatable Favorites : 318-1148( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4062-11127 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.7% takeout ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2343-11588 ($19648,50)  Beatable Favorites : 333-1216( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 4186-11599  ( 36.1% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.4% takeout


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