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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - #6 Peaceful


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Saratoga - 7/13

 

Race  1

1.Ramblin' Ma'am

2.Magical Justice

3.She's Not Bluffing 

Positively grotesque opener to start out the first Saturday of the meet. #4 RAMBLIN' MA'AM faltered badly in the first try off the bench two dozen days ago, but keep in mind that not only is this one less than stellar after a layoff ( 3:0-0-1 with an average Beyer of 13.3 ), but she's also not a fan of the goo ( 3:0-0-1 with an average Beyer of 13.7 ). Only one of those races overlap, and we'll give this one a chance to rebound. #1 MAGICAL JUSTICE was extremely sharp in procuring the diploma at the Thistle on 6/18, and earned a career best # in doing such. Legit shot. #10 SHE'S NOT BLUFFING won by more than five when last seen at Velmont, and the runner up from that day got her photo taken next time out ( 52 speed figure ).  NOTE: AS OF 12:10, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  NOTE: AS OF 12:52, DUE TO A PADDOCK SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Winifred J

2.Mike's Girl 

3.Prisoner's Dilemma

#1 WINIFRED J ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) was eased when last in action about 50 degrees ago, but the lone turf try yielded an adjusted figure of 67.8 ( without blinks, AND at a higher level ), and it's encouraging to see Manny Man climb aboard. From an itty bitty sampling, Barker ( 14% on the norm ) is 3:2-1-0 with turf dashers in the 58-258 day range, and just look at the payouts ( $65 & $27 ). #3 MIKE'S GIRL loses the hood today, and that's of some relevance, as Gargan is 5:2-2-0 when doing that to those in the 1-39 day range < 12-1. #2 PRISONER'S DILEMMA ( also put in on Friday ) is another taking the biggest drop in the game, and C-Squared has a groovy 11:4-3-2-1 ledger when that happens to his turf sprinters ( 67 days or less ).  OFF TURF: 10-5-2-3-7

 

Race  3

1.By Your Side

2.Cucina

3.Memorable

#5 BY YOUR SIDE was all out to win beneath the twin spires at first asking, and the figaro earned that day was purdy good. This $15,000 bred animal went for 16 times that much at auction, so is obviously well meant. Obviously, we love the draw, and seem to be calling on this trainer's number quite often during the early stages of the meet. #3 CUCINA was cooking in the maiden breaking effort 22 days back, and could sit a perfect trick today. #1 MEMORABLE was quite forgettable in the first try versus winners, but we'll leave in the mix due to the paucity of proven talent in this field. 

 

Race  4 

1.Zyramid

2.High Tide

3.Pharoah Cat

#6 ZYRAMID gave a lively and well clear showing first out, and although he immolated a bunch of baccala that day, three returnees from that heat came back to amass a 3:1-1-0 mark next out, and there's an excellent trainer stat in play here. Over the last five years, The As-Man is a near perfect 6:5-0-1 w/ locally based male 2nd time starters at this level who were ITM less than 51 days back ( < 12-1 ). The ROI for that sampling is nearly six clams, and Franco has done some nice work for this outfit. #1 HIGH TIDE has a nice gate move on display for today's overture, and 23% Pletcher clicks at a 38% rate with those fitting ALL these exact parameters. Will need to break sharply. #7 PHAROAH CAT will be slightly overbet because of the papa, but is eligible to move forward off the debut. 

 

Race  5

1.Cache

2.Paper Clip

3.Originator

Not really feeling the mojo with this race, so tread lightly. #3 CACHE showed little in the comebacker, but is second off the L/O today and gets a Hall of Famer in the irons. #2 PAPER CLIP has improved with each and every start, culminating with a maiden breaking effort down in Louisville a little less than two months ago. There was a bullet breeze on the Oklahoma lawn eight days ago, and it likely came with this jock in the irons, who has been thrown the occasional bone by Wesley in the afternoons. Not sure why there's a cooupled entry in this race, as I'm not seeing any commanality in the owner/trainer department ( unless there is a long list of owners that doesn't fit in the Form ), but nonetheless, we'll incorporate the #1A ORIGINATOR based on the class & solid #'s.  OFF TURF: 6(MTO)-1-1A-9(MTO)-3

 

Race  6 

1.Enforceable 

2.Decorated Invader

3.Kokokomo

#4 ENFORCEABLE had no chance in the most recent when running into Rowdy Yates on Clint Eastwood's birthday, but still managed to hit the board for the second time in as many outings, and while the turf breeding ain't spectacular, it's still good enough to make an impression vs. these. Slight edge in a heat where we were only unable to eliminate three with our first draft. #2 DECORATED INVADER has a decent gate breeze on the docket for today's initial foray, and was purchased at Keeneland back in September for a price that was 8X the stud fee. Irad hops aboard. #1 KOKOKOMO didn't show much in an off the turf event last time out, but showed a decent "Z" pattern in the turf bow and is nicely bred for this trip.  OFF TURF: 1A(MTO)-3-4-7(MTO)-1 

 

Race  7

1.Kazmania

2.Bozzini

3.New York Hero

#3 KAZMANIA fought the good fight in finishing a troubled 3rd on June 22nd, taking up off heels, but still gaining some ground late in the game. Colt hung up an adjusted fig of 80.1 in his lone "2nd off the shelf" foray ( at a higher level ), and the lone tally came at this dx. You may get solid odds here. #1 BOZZINI is but a nose short of a 2-2 mark off a break and has been working decently since last in action. #6 NEW YORK HERO ( an entrant on opening day ) rounds out the top three.

 

Race  8 

1.First Wave 

2.Blahnik

3.So Gracious

We are ALL OVER the #7 FIRST WAVE in this spot. ( Pre odds posting ) Rusty got this gal some important experience in an off the turf event down in Kentucky, and was rewarded when she placed solidly beneath today's pilot. She followed that up with a bullet breeze over softish ground at Keeneland, and being a War Front, you'd have to think she'd dig the stuff, no? As a matter of fact, we have a way of configuring the Tomlinson figures into Beyer speed figures depending on the particular conditions in play, and we feel that this one's prorated numero from the career opener superior to what anyone else in the race is eligible to put up. Book it. #1 BLAHNIK disappointed when put up for sale for the 1st time, but the lone other turf sprint was quite solid, and we like how this one is protected against the claim this afternoon. #4 SO GRACIOUS is confidently shipped northward for her first spin over the blades and Manuel gets the call.  OFF TURF: 4-3-7-6-8  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 PEACEFUL, because we like our top choice that much.

 

Race  9 

1.Rushing Fall

2.Mitchell Road

3.Secret Message

Today's feature is the "Chad Brown Grade One Diana" !! #2 RUSHING FALL is but a neck shy of an unblemished 9 for 9 record, and although this is a highly competitive field, do we really need to espouse this selection any more than that? #3 MITCHELL ROAD is another one who can boast of a nearly perfect boxscore, and that includes a core in a 2nd off the L/O scenario. Numbers are a bit on the light side, but they are heading in the right direction, aren't they? #5 SECRET MESSAGE shoots for the hat trick today and got her Polaroid taken the only time she went from one turn to two.  OFF TURF: 6-2-1-3-4

 

Race  10

1.El Asesino 

2.Payne

3.Hersch

#3 EL ASESINO had improved over five straight before regressing badly two starts back at Churchill. Chestnut runner improved somewhat in the followup start and gets Irad in the saddle. Mild choice. #5 PAYNE has done little wrong in his career, having never missed a triple, and will likely be your deserving chalk in this pot. #8 HERSCH got the job done in his lone try here last year & is second off the bench today.   NOTE: AS OF 12:13, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR 2ND & 3RD SELECTIONS.

 

Race  11

1.Battle of Blenheim 

2.Prognostication

3.Gray Sky

#11 BATTLE OF BLENHEIM steps up a bit after a win against conditional foes on the 12th of June, and lightly raced five year old rarely has a bad effort, and may have had his confidence boosted with the score. #7 PROGNOSTICATION has a win & a third in "true" 2nd off the shelf forays ( one of them occurring right here ) and finds himself @ his lowest level to date. #5 GRAY SKY is a nibbler by rote ( 47:3-10-13 ), but has a perfect ITM rate in second off the L/O tries ( 6:0-2-3-1 ) and we're surprised that it's taken so long to get this one back on the gramma, as he's decently bred for the stuff.  OFF TURF: 1-10(MTO)-2-13(MTO)-14  Anyway, it's 4:15 on opening day morningand we need a touch of sleep before the .... workouts !  

 


Saratoga           ( Current ):      3-20        ( $27.50 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   (  0.0% )      Favorites Win %:      6-20   ( 30.0% )(As of Sat. morning)

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Belmont Spring     ( Final ):    90-447      ( $697.60 )  Beatable Favorites  6-33 ( 18.2% )      Favorites Win %:   172-447 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-32         ( $54.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:    9-32     ( 28.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-377   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 128-377  ( 34.0% )  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2258-11020 ($18,829.30) Beatable Favorites : 318-1148( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4062-11127 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.7% takeout ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2343-11588 ($19648,50)  Beatable Favorites : 333-1216( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 4186-11599  ( 36.1% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.4% takeout


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