SiteLock

KevinCoxItem

 

NOTE: WE HAVE AMENDED SEVERAL RACES TO REFLECT A WET TRACK. SHOULD THE DIRT RACES REVERT TO FAST, THEN OUR ORIGINAL SELECTIONS WILL BE IN PLAY. SHOULD THE OFF THE TURF RACES REVERT TO FAST, THEN WE WILL ATTEMPT TO RE-HANDICAP AND ADJUST.

What a mess yesterday.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #2 Worth a Shot  Race 5 - #2 Good Shabbos  Race 9 - #7 Voodoo Song


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Saratoga - 7/12 

 

Race  1

1.Legion Storm

2.French Revolution

3.Arguto 

#2 LEGION STORM was a daylight clear runner up vs. slightly weaker at Big Sandy at the end of May, and although this one is a bit of a nibbler, we like the fact that McL. is a poyfect 4 fer 4 with locally based dirt stayers who hit the board 34-50 days back & are 3-1 or lower today ( $5 & $6 x 3 ). #5 FRENCH REVOLUTION undergoes a gamut of changes today ( turf to dirt, 2nd off the layoff, drop in class, new track ) and would only need to find one of those agreeable to make an impression versus these. #1 ARGUTO has been freshened up since the last and is another one sliding down the ladder; blinks are left in the barn as well. 

 

Race  2

1.Catorat

2.Crazy Life

3.Danfusi

We hate to "Miss the wedding & go to the funeral", but we'll bite with the #3 CATORAT after the game placing at 44-1. Donk on a bad run of late ( oh-fer-42 ), but there's a nice DRF Formulator start in play here, as he's won with five of eight second time routers  on the lawn at this level beneath the 30-1 watermark ( 1-53 days ). The ROI for that sampling was $3.56, but you MUST demand some value here. #6 CRAZY LIFE will be brought over by a shotcaller who owns a 7:3-1-2 ledger with second off the break runners of this ilk who hit the board last time out ( $4, $5 & $6 ). #7 DANFUSI outran his pedigree when nearly going all the way in the overture, and C-Squared is 4-12 with second time starters/second time routers who hit the board under similar conditions first out & are 10-1 or less ( < 66 days ).   OFF TURF: 13(MTO)-7-1A-8-12  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 WORTH A SHOT fills the bill, as Rice ain't nice with second of the L/O/First time route stock ( 0-10 )  NOTE: AS OF 12:26, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE 7-13(MTO)-10.  NOTE: AS OF 1:10, EVEN THOUGH THE TRACK IS FAST, OUR SELECTIONS REMAIN THE SAME.

 

Race  3

1.Dream Passage

2.Ferdinanda

3.Pauseforthecause

#4 DREAM PASSAGE  shoots for the hat trick today, is 11:4-3-3 with Joel in the irons, and in what has to be one of the best "large sample size" Formulator stats we've ever come across, Cox ( dig it ) is a sensational 24 for 41 ( What ?? NURSE !! )with protected optional turfers who won less than 58 days back & are below 6-1. That's a 58.5% win rate, and that's all we need to know. #6 FERDINANDA lost by a sliver at 11-1 in the lone "3rd off the L/O" foray ( in a stakes no less ), and Tagg is 4 fer 14 w/optional turfers going long that missed the board < 40 days ago, and just look at these prices: $10, $38, $21 & $7. #5 PAUSEFORTHECAUSE has missed the super but once in her 14 race career, and seems like a sensible "unders" candidate.  OFF TURF: 5-3-1A-1-2

 

Race  4 

1.Lord Simba 

2.Dazzling Okie

3.Orpheus ( Arg )

#8 LORD SIMBA bested similar type down in CD about a month ago, so right off the bat, it's proving to be a good claim for Kenneally. Mild choice in a heat that's difficult to hug. #1 DAZZLING OKIE has been a part of the tri more than 50% of the time and is 7:1-4-1 when breaking from the pine. #7 ORPHEUS (ARG) is still cashing some checks at the age of eight, and owns a 5:2-1-1 mark at the trip.  NOTE: AS OF 12:32, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  NOTE: AS OF 1:11, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING FAST, OUR SELECTIONS REMAIN THE SAME AS ORIGINALLY POSTED

 

Race  5

1.Lotta Ott

2.Apurate

3.Vast

#4 LOTTA OTT has a couple of fantastic gate moves on display for today's overture and is decently bred for this kinda deal. $7,500 bred animal went for $110K at Keeneland last September and may just catch a flyer when the latches spring open. #1 APURATE is the first foal to race out of an unsuccessful dam, but we'll toss in because of the Hall of Fame connections. #6 VAST has a best of 37 bullet breeze on display for today's career starter, and there's a decent gate move on the ledger as well.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 GOOD SHABBOS will be brought over by a conditioner who's oh-fer-14 with 2nd time starting mdspwt. dirt stock who were ITM 32-50 days ago.  NOTE: AS OF 12:39, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE. NOTE: AS OF 1:13, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING FAST, OUR SELECTIONS REMAIN THE SAME AS ORIGINALLY POSTED.

 

Race  6 

1.Holiday Bonus

2.Dontblamerocket 

3.Hay Dakota

#5 HOLIDAY BONUS hasn't shown much in the last duet, but we like going back thtree races to find something positive, and the May 16th effort at Belmont produced an adjusted speed figure of 84.2, which fits in snugly with most of these. DiPrima ( just 8% on the norm ) is 3-12 when going from sand to sod with his routers at 30-1 or less ( 1-45 days. The winners came back a fat $20, $37 & $43, and good send rider goes for a trainer who's known to get speed out of his runners. #9 DONTBLAMEROCKET is a check earning machine who comes in today off a troubled third in a race where he was claimed. Hard to fault the consistency and should be right there at the end. #11 HAY DAKOTA got the job done in a nearly identical spot down in Louisville three weeks back, and like we mentioned in a prior race -- another good purchase by this outfit. Gelding is a jazzy 4 for 9 @ the trip and deserves your respect this afternoon.  OFF TURF: 2-5-6(MTO)-3(MTO)-1  NOTE: AS OF 1:06, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING ON A FAST TRACK, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 2-1-5.

 

Race  7

1.Filly Dilly

2.Hollywood Cat

3.Andarta

#9 FILLY DILLY positively blitzed maidens at first asking for J. Englehart, and the pedigree tells us that this one may actually be a bit better on the verde. When you come across a field with many question marks, there are two options: Look for a bomber, or go with the common sense play. We'll do the latter. #2 HOLLYWOOD CAT is 2nd off the layoff this afternoon, and completed the exacta behind a next out winnah the only other time she attempted such on the turf. Mare usually gives a good account of herself, and the lone try @ this trip ended up with her posing for a photo. #10 ANDARTA just may perk up if unable to get some firm ground.  OFF TURF:9-3-1-13(MTO)-15(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 1:28, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING ON A FAST TRACK, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 15(MTO)-9-16(MTO)

 

Race  8 

1.Fiery Opal

2.Doups Point 

3.Irish Vlor

#7 FIERY OPAL has only beaten home six in his last three calls to the post, but the numbers came back okay, and Arriaga is a tight 3 for 4 when going 1X to 2X with his dirt stock @ 18-1 or lower ( 20-50 days ). The winners came back $2, $6 & $19, and gelding is one for three when last to load. #6 DOUPS POINT will likely go off favored today, but be very careful, as he'll be bet off of the whole body of work -- nOT for his penchant for winning ( 7:1-5-0 ). Using, but with a touch of trepidation. #1 IRISH VALOR is 2 for 5 when beginning from the innermost two slots, and closed out the triple in his lone "third off the layoff" spin. 

 

Race  9 

1.Gidu ( Ire )

2.March to the Arch

3.Qurbaan

Impossible race to try and decipher... #1 GIDU (IRE) lost by only a head in the lone "2nd off the shelf" turf route, and although he barely held on in the most recent, that may serve as a bit of a confidence booster after six straight OTB finishes. #5 MARCH TO THE ARCH comes in today off of back to back career best performances, and has also won two of three. What really pops off the page is the uncharacteristic glib breeze on the 5th of July, and that's always a positive sign for one who likes to come from off the pace. BIG shot. #8 QURBAAN made us look uuber smart on closing weekend last year, but six year old "horse" ( you hang on to those dangling participles, buddy boy ! ) has been on the fringes since then, so we'll chunk underneath -- for old time's sake.  OFF TURF: 5-4-2-3-10  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 VOODOO SONG

 

Race  10

1.Linda's Ballet

2.Prisoner's Dilemma (AE)

3.Fight Night

On our first draft of this race we were able to eliminate six of the seven signed on. On our second spin we came up with three solid sets of trainer's stats, so as it's 2:45 in the morning ( an early night !! ), let's get right to 'em. #6 LINDA'S BALLET essentially galloped around the track in an off the turf event at Belmont, but hey -- at least she got used to the hood. Anyway, her namesake is a juicy 5 for 7 when going dirt to turf with her maiden claiming sprinters off breaks of 45 days or less ( $7, $5, $15, $6 & $12 ). #13 PRISONER'S DILEMMA (AE) has a bit of just that going on here, as she's on the outside looking in, but that being said, C-Squared is 4-11 with turf dashers taking the biggest drop in the game ( < 68 days ). The winners came back $7, $6 x 2 & $3, and there's a sub category of 1-1 with those right here. ( Man, we were just looking to get to bed with our writeup of this race, but guess loquaciousness got the better of us ! ) #2 FIGHT NIGHT....Weaver is 2 for 5 w/2nd off the L/O turf sprinters who missed teh board 29-67 days back.  OFF TURF: 3-9-13(AE)-16(MTO)-1  NOTE: AS OF 2:11, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING FAST, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 8-14(MTO)-3

 

Saratoga           ( Current ):      1-10        ( $4.10 )      Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )         Favorites Win %:      4-10    ( 40.0% )

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Belmont Spring     ( Final ):    90-447      ( $697.60 )  Beatable Favorites  6-33 ( 18.2% )      Favorites Win %:   172-447 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-32         ( $54.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:    9-32     ( 28.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-377   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 128-377  ( 34.0% )  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2258-11020 ($18,829.30) Beatable Favorites : 318-1148( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4062-11127 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.7% takeout ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2343-11588 ($19648,50)  Beatable Favorites : 333-1216( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 4186-11599  ( 36.1% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.4% takeout


coxbel2019