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Just a couple of chalk jobs yesterday.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont Park - 6/14

 

Race  1

1.Tempers Way

2.Big Expense

3.Joule

#2 TEMPERS WAY has Beyered between 54 and 65 in all her turf routes to date ( been a part of the superfecta in each ), and looks extremely strong in today's opener. #6 BIG EXPENSE is pretty much a professional maiden these days, but comes in off a career best numero, and sheds some lb.'s off that gamely finish. #3 JOULE showed little in the most recent, but drops in class today and the adjusted number from three back would put her in contention for the top honors in today's opener.  OFF TURF: 2-1-3-4-7  NOTE: AS OF 1:05, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN OVER A FAST TRACK OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-3-2.

 

Race  2

1.Fast Getaway

2.Elektronic

3.Mango M

#7 FAST GETAWAY owns a 3:2-1-0 mark over firm ground, and even though this one has broken on top over his last quartet, we like his "rateability" over the last troika. Yeah, this one is a bit of a money burner ( 0 for 4 as the chalk ), but from a small sampling, Rice is 2 fer 5 w/3rd off the L/O optional turf dashers who hit the board less than two fortnights ago ( $16 & $8 ). #4 ELECTRONIC ( 2nd half of the uncoupled entry with our top selection ) has improved with each start & shoots for the hat trick today. #1 MANGO M lost by only a length in the lone turf sprint ( breaking from the inside, like today ), won in his only "2nd off the break" foray, & is 2:1-0-1 over this oval; must incorporate.  OFF TURF: 4-5-6-1-8

 

Race  3

1.Storm Rider

2.Inclunation

3.Ari's Naughty Luca

These three and and no more for all our rolling action.  #1 STORM RIDER was a well beaten but well clear runner up when last seen down in Keeneland on April 18th, and after getting smacked around in his last triad, is in receipt of his finest pilot to date today. Bullet breeze up at Oklahoma nine days ago duly noted. #6 INCLUNATION lays over just about all of these from a speed figure perspective, and draws ideally while retaining Manny Man. #4 ARI'S NAUGHTY LUCA wasted a gigantic lead when returning off a 4 1/2 month respite, finishing second by just a noggin' against slightly tougher on this strip. Gelding was kept in jail & drops in class for the new conditioner this afternoon, and stock goes up if the front wraps come off.  NOTE: AS OF 12:54, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Mobridge

2.Tiz a Chance

3.The Crocheron Kid

Once again we don't see the need to go any deeper than these three... #6 MOBRIDGE is back where he belongs today, as the 4 for 8 local ledger belies, and is back in the hands of Gargan today, for whom he was 4:1-1-0 last year. Slight edge. #1 TIZ A CHANCE owns a 2 for 7 ledger at the trip ( a woeful 2 fer 30 otherwise ), and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman here, which is an angle we always dig. #5 THE CROCHERON KID rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 2-1-3-6(MTO)-4

 

Race  5

1.Violator

2.Yankee Empire

3.Another Miracle

#2 VIOLATOR boasts an exceptionally high Tomlinson figure for today's career starter, and brings in tow a couple of decent morning moves as well for The As-Man. This is the first foal to start out of an average dam, but daddy was 2 for 2 in dirt dashes, the paternal grandpappy was 1 for 2 doing the same, maternal grand dad was also 1-2 @ the trip, and the maternal grandmom won his only start @ this deal. Things to like. #4 YANKEE EMPIRE has a maturity edge over the entire field and went for 6X the stud fee at auction. Been working extremely well, and was not only dropped by a dam who was 4-17 in dirt dashes, but Cairo Prince got the job done in his only outings doing the same. #6 ANOTHER MIRACLE was sired by none other than fan favorite American Pharoah, and he's gone 1 for 6 ( from 4 foals ) with his first crop, and this one shot off a 48 & 1 from the gate on the training track last Friday.  NOTE: AS OF 12:55, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Noble Spirit

2.Tiberius Mercurius

3.Foti

#3 NOBLE SPIRIT posted an adjusted 80.6 in the career opener when closing out the tri up at Saratoga last year, and although that figure was essentially replicated next time out, a 6th place finish was the best he could muster when last seen. Weaver charge has received the unkindest cut of all since then, and isn't it encouraging to see Franco climb aboard? Slim margin in a competitive maiden special weight affair. #6 TIBERIUS MERCURIUS has ( from a speed figure perspective ) improved with each passing start and shows a bullet breeze since the last. #8 FOTI was a bit tardy to the party when starting things out two fortnights ago, but came along well enough late in the game in losing by just three lengths at 37-1. Breeding tells us that there's a chance for improvement today, and will likely get overlooked a bit parimutually.  OFF TURF: 9-1-2-4-5

 

Race  7

1.Bustin Shout

2.Rally Cap

3.Dr. Lloyd

On our first draft of this race, we were able to shave this nonet down to a quartet, and of that foursome, two had sweet DRF Fomulator stats, so let's get right to 'em. #8 BUSTIN SHOUT left the blinkers in the barn for the secondary outing and went coast to coast after being eased in the debut. The # earned was a bit on the lowish side, but we're assuaged by the fact that 14% Levine is a whopping 5 for 8 with mid level male stock on the dirt who procured the diploma 16-50 days ago, and just look at the prices -- $25, $16, $10, $17 & $5. #6 RALLY CAP is a perfectly timed claim by Kantarmaci, who plunked down 40 large for this one 31 days ago, has kept him in jail for 31 days, and is now eligible to come back at the same level after the wire job on May 12th. Aforementioned shotcaller has won four of nine with freshly purchased runners of this ilk who won 16-50 days back & are 5-1 or beneath today ( $4, $5, $7 & $8 ). #2 DR. LLOYD was vanned off when last in action at the end of February, but given the first two outings, is an obvious factor if fully cranked up. 

 

Race  8 

1.Pollara ( Ire )

2.Romantic Moment

3.War Canoe

#8 POLLARA (IRE) is spotted in a confidence building spot after finishing off the board in both American starts, and looks strong with a clean trip. #2 ROMANTIC MOMENT has hit the board in both starts on this course and is eligible for improvement in today's 2nd try off a L/O. #4 WAR CANOE is a little bit of an in and outer, but has done okay here and can close things out underneath.  OFF TURF: 1-3-8-7-2

 

Race  9 

1.Flush

2.Ascender

3.Miss Jen

#1 FLUSH has been given a bit of a break since last facing the starter, and returns trying the gramma for the first time. That may not be such a bad idea, as McL. doubles his normative 19% batting average when doing that to his routers at 13-1 or less ( 58-92 days ). The winners paid $17 x 2 & $12, and there's a bit of pedigree in her favor, as she's a half to Derby Kitten, who went 3-24 in dirt routes, banking  bit over 193K. #12 ASCENDER is second off the layoff for the 1st time today, and jock from the maiden breaker returns. #9 MISS JEN completed the superfecta at 16-1 over "good" ground last time out, and won by a sliver over firm going in the penultimate try, and should be rolling late.  OFF TURF: 8-12-2-9-10

 


Belmont Spring  (Current):     60-284      ( $505.20 )  Beatable Favorites  3-20 ( 15.0% )     Favorites Win %:    109-284 ( 38.4% )( As of Friday morning )


Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-32         ( $54.20 )    Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )      Favorite's Win %:    9-32     ( 28.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-377   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 128-377  ( 34.0% )  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2168-10573 ($18,131.70) Beatable Favorites : 312-1115( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3890-10680 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2253-11141 ($18,950.90) Beatable Favorites : 327-1183( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 4014-11152  ( 36.0% ) +/-: -14.9%  against a 16.4% takeout


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