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Nice way to start out the week for us yesterday, as we snagged a five bagger ( just one of them favored ) with mutuels of $3, $7, $11, $22 & $13 ), along with a $15 quinella box, two ice cold Daily Doubles of $99 & $105, an ice cold Pick Three of $551, and two successful Beatable Favorites. We've rebounded after a tough three days to go 8 for our last 16 ( $32 bet -- $62 returned ).

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont Park - 6/13

 

Race  1

1.Air On Fire

2.Remstin

3.Quest For Fire 

#1 AIR ON FIRE has a nice collection of speed figures and finds himself at his lowest level to date. Slight edge in a wide open opener. #3 REMSTIN makes his 3rd start off an elongated absence, and drops in class off a race where he showed improvement from the prior start. Contessa ( just 9.68% over the last five years ) is a crisp 3-10 with locally based 3rd off the layoff mid level dirt stock who missed the money last time out & are 9-1 or less today ( $12, $19 & $12 ). #5 QUEST FOR FIRE has closed out the triple in his last duet and seems capable in doing that again today.  NOTE: AS OF 2:14, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 1/1A-5-4.

 

Race  2

1.Sterling Beauty

2.Corey Scores

3.Lough Na Mona

#9 STERLING BEAUTY has really picked up her game when transitioning to the gramma two starts back, and honk if you like Donk with maiden special weight turf stayers off breaks of less than 50 days ( 5-1 or less ). He's a whopping 6 for 11 in that regards ( $3.66 ROI ) with a sub category of 3 fer 4 with the ladies. #11 COREY SCORES is 2nd off the shelf today & should appreciate the added distance. #1 LOUGH NA MONA has been laid up after each of his starts, but is second time routing & draws snugly at this tricky configuration.  OFF TURF: 2-1-4-5-12(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 2:20, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 12-1-3.

 

Race  3 

1.Mo Soul

2.Professor Snape

3.Nolinski 

#2 MO SOUL shoots for the stretched out grand slam this afternoon, and barn is a perfect 3 for 3 with mid level dirt stock who won 30-50 days ago & are 7-2 or below. Grab him by the tail to get the glory. #1 PROFESSOR SNAPE is an extremely consistent sort who takes the obligatory hike in class after being claimed 18 days back. Gelding digs it here & has won two of four when breaking from the pine. #3 NOLINSKI has been given some time off after being gelded, and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman here.  DUE TO A GATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Charreada

2.Funny Flowers

3.Lido Key

#8 CHARREADA has been on the shelf for about nine months, but Shug ( from a tidy sampling ) owns a 2 for 4 mark with locally based mid level turf routers at this level ( 68 days or longer ). The winners returned $4 & $6, and Rosario climbs aboard for the first time. #2 FUNNY FLOWERS bested half the field first time out for Barclay, and his runners are known to improve with time. #4 LIDO KEY showed improved zip in the most recent & may improve in today's 3rd off the L/O attempt.  OFF TURF: 1-6-8-2-9  NOTE: AS OF 2:24, DUE TO A SCRATCH & THE RACE BEING RUN ON THE INNER TURF, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 2-1-7.

 

Race  5

1.Carlisle Belle

2.Sheza Diva

3.Malibu Mischief

#3 CARLISLE BELLE is 1 for 4 here ( 0-12 elsewhere ), goes from a bug to a journeyman, and has partaken in the superfecta over her last six outings. Meeeeeeekest of choices in a yucky race. #1A SHEZA DIVA has only beaten four home in her last sextet after she made us look like a super genius when scoring in the debut at 15-1. Today's foray against conditional claimers is a first for her & she may appreciate the class relief. #5 MALIBU MISCHIEF has lots of zip and may last for a share.  NOTE: AS OF 2:32, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN ON A WET TRACK, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-5-4.

 

Race  6 

1.Solar 

2.Skychief

3.Shiloh Lane

#7 SOLAR didn't show much in the career starter, but has the hood added today, drops in class, ( presumably ) catches firm ground for the first time, and will be led over by a 23% bossman who's a juicy 6 fer 11 with 2nd time female starters on the sod at 9-1 or less ( $3 x 2, $4 x 2, $12 & $14 ). #10 SKYCHIEF has the best collection of numeros in the bunch, but is beginning to give the appearance of becoming that kind of horse. A must inclusion in all your rollers, but we'll be leaving beneath. #6 SHILOH LANE rounds out the top three. OFF TURF: 7-8-3-9-5  NOTE: AS OF 2:35, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION, AND OUR TOP CHOICE WILL BE OUR PLAY OF THE DAY.

 

Race  7

1.Purrageous Dyna

2.Dream Passage

3.Call Me Kayla

#4 PURRAGEOUS DYNA is one for one in 2nd off the shelf attempts, 3:1-1-0-1 when going from brown to green, and got her photo taken in the only pairing with Jose Ortiz. ALL of those stats are sui generis, and totals up to a nice 5:3-1-0-1 mark. Slim margin in a tight heat. #5 DREAM PASSAGE is 7:1-3-1-1 on this course and comes in off a wire to wire job right here. #8 CALL ME KAYLA usually gives a good account of herself and has the ability to send or rate a bit.  OFF TURF: 8-1-3-6-7  NOTE: AS OF 2:37, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Aunt Babe

2.Carerra Cat

3.Mizzen Max

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #5 AUNT BABE has cashed checks in her last septet ( favored in none of them ), is 1 for 4 over this ( fast ) track, and is 5:1-1-1-1 when beginning from the outermost two slots. Show horse from the most recent came back a winner in her next start, and this miss sheds seven pounds for the first time in her career. Expect her to be a bit closer to the pace today. #1 CARERRA CAT shoots for the grand salami in the first jump into open waters this afternoon, and it's well within reach given the recent speed figures earned. #3 MIZZEN MAX has been beset by layoff lines, but got the job done in her lone "second off the L/O" attempt, and has done well both here & with Johnny V..  NOTE: AS OF 2:44, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 3-5-1.  NOTE: AS OF 5:53, DUE TO AN ERROR OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 2-5-1.

 

Race  9 

1.Magical Romance

2.Seattle Frost ( AE )

3.Daddysneverready

#13 SEATTLE FROST (AE) needs one to get out in order to get in, but should that be the case, brings in tow some nice early zip ( along with a propensity for fading late in the game ) and what would be a nice draw. Filly may be coming into form, as she hung around longer than usual last time out, and we'll toss in, in a forgettable finale. #8 MAGICAL ROMANCE has been freshened up since finishing in the rear with the gear back in November, but with maidens we permit ourselves to go anywhere in their P.P.'s to look for value, as they're maidens for a reason, ya know. That being said, this 6YO posted adjusted speed figures of 43.3 & 42.5 ( at a higher level ) over this oval last year, and did so without the use of blinkers, which is now in play. Those figs play okay here, and runner gets in light as well. #11 DADDYSNEVERREADY ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) is 2nd off the bench/2nd time lasix.  OFF TURF: 9-4-2-10-15(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 2:54, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 2-7-8.

  


Belmont Spring  (Current):     58-275      ( $496.30 )  Beatable Favorites  3-20 ( 15.0% )     Favorites Win %:    106-275 ( 38.6% )( As of Thursday morning ) 

 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-32         ( $54.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )      Favorite's Win %:    9-32     ( 28.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-377   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 128-377  ( 34.0% )  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2168-10573 ($18,131.70) Beatable Favorites : 312-1115( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3890-10680 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2253-11141 ($18,950.90) Beatable Favorites : 327-1183( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 4014-11152  ( 36.0% ) +/-: -14.9%  against a 16.4% takeout


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