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Just three chalky winners here on Sunday. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #5 First Forever  Race 8 - #7 No Fly Zone


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Belmont Park - 6/12

 

Race  1

1.Soul Fight 

2.Zorbed

3.Revenio

#4 SOUL FIGHT had a touch of trouble when starting things out a bit more than a month ago over the Widener turf course here, but is a touch better bred for the dirt than the turf, and takes an appreciable drop in class while retaining Joel. Mild edge in a race where we were unable to eliminate anyone with our first draft. #5 ZORBED improved appreciably when transitioning to the sand last time out, and the pedigree tells us that it was likely no aberration. That was the mother of all strung out fields ( 6-4-17-1-21 was the length differential between each finishers ), but this one gets a bit of post relief today, and drops 25K. #2 REVENIO is another taking a plunge in the weeks' opener, and exits a heat where eight returnees have rung up three wins from seven different races with an average Beyer improvement of .8 points per outing.

 

Race  2

1.Infatuation

2.Saratoga Style

3.Mary's Girl

#2 INFATUATION goes from an apprentice to a journeyman today, and 8% Quick is even moreso ( 3-14 ) with locally based mid level dirt stock who were off the off the board < 40 days back & are 22-1 or less ( $10, $8 & $15 ). #6 SARATOGA STYLE has partaken in four straight triples outside of stakes company and is a logical 1-2-3 playah. #1 MARY'S GIRL is still one of our favorite feel good stories, from who she's named after, right down to her wonderful owners. Good to see her Beyering in the 50's, and perhaps the improvement continues today.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 FIRST FOREVER will be overbet given the figures earned on a wet track, but should the surface be fast today, would be a good play against, given the short odds.  NOTE: AS OF 12:02, DUE TO A LATE SCRATH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Kiss the Girl

2.Positive Power

3.Launch Sequence

#4 KISS THE GIRL brings in a healthy 386 Tomlinson figure for today's overture, owns some decent morning moves, and T.P. wipes 'em clean with those fitting ALL this exact criteria at less than 5-1, as he rolls right along to a 7 fer 15 rate. This is the first foal to race out of an unraced dam, and couldn't find an easier spot for the debut. #2 POSITIVE POWER worked nicely up here at Oklahoma on 6/2, but is a half to a couple of multiple winning dirt sprinters, and Double D aboard ensures maximum effort for the family affair. #5 LAUNCH SEQUENCE as bad as any for the show dough. 

 

Race  4 

1.Zap Daddy

2.Heavy Meddle

3.Stormy Justin

#5 ZAP DADDY is back in for a tag for the first time since being claimed seven starts ago, and that start was a win at a higher level. Gelding has closed out the exacta in three of five turf starts since then, and picks up the services of Manny Franco today. #8 HEAVY MEDDLE faded after a half when being more than tripled in price for the first start off the claim 55 days back, and the blinkers go on this afternoon as this five year old is still kept above the purchase price. #1 STORMY JUSTIN is hiked up after the "score at the shore", and draws ideally for his running style at this tricky configuration.  OFF TURF: 2-4(MTO)-6(MTO)-3-7

 

Race  5

1.Won't Be Missed

2.Tiz No Bluff

3.Run for Boston

#1 WON'T BE MISSED doesn't owe us anything, and while he has only beaten home one runner in his last duet, we always go back three starts to find something positive, and the 4/28 outing yielded an adjusted speed figure of 73.1 in finishing 3rd behind the classy Uncle Sigh. Lots of question marks in here, so why not look for a price? #4 TIZ NO BLUFF is a nibbler by rote ( 14:1-4-5 ) but finds himself at his lowest level to date, and comes out of a race where he finished 3rd behind two runners who got their photos taken next time out, improving their Beyer speed figures by an avg. of four points. #2 RUN FOR BOSTON is another nibbler at an all time low who has closed out the triple in both turf to dirt attempts. 

 

Race  6 

1.See Below

2.See Below

3.See Below

If the outside horse draws in, our selections will be #7 MY FIRST GAL - #16 DADDYSNEVERREADY (AE) - #11 DONTCALLMEFRANCIS

If the outside horse does NOT draw in, our selections will be #7 MY FIRST GAL - #11 DONTCALLMEFRANCIS - #9 MZ SEB PAT

OFF TURF: 1-16(AE)-10-7-3 

 

Race  7

1.Walkoff

2.Creative Style

3.Trustworthy

#1 WALKOFF came along resolutely to break the maiden right here at the end of April, running the last 1/8th in 11.53. 383 Tomlinson figure tells us that there is some room for improvement, and we like that he has already handled the pine. #6 CREATIVE STYLE was as flat as a pancake in the first try versus winners, but you have to be a bit forgiving of that kind of race, and runner gets a major upgrade in the jockey department today. #5 TRUSTWORTHY lost by a honker in his only start off a "true" layoff, and has finished 2nd in both local forays. Five year old has been a bit of a fringe player of late, so we'll slide beneath. 

 

Race  8 

1.Belle of the Spa 

2.Bertranda

3.High Jingo

#12 BELLE OF THE SPA hasn't seen the scene since Hector was a pup, but missed by only a nose in her only legit try off an absence, and it came under IDENTICAL circumstances as well. Bruce Brown needn't frown with turf dashers coming off of hibernations of 225 days or more ( 24-1 or < ), as he's 3 fer 4 w/that type, ringing up mutuels of $4, $5 & $20. #8 BERTRANDA bested half the field in the first start off the claim for Donk, and may hang on for a share today. #11 HIGH JINGO got her photo taken the only time she was in a 2nd off the L/O situation, and has oodles of speed.  OFF TURF: 13(MTO)-8(MTO)-9-1(MTO)-1A(MTO)

 

Race  9 

1.Bettor Bank On It 

2.Elenzee

3.Mend Up

We'll blast off in the nitecap with the ol' 3-2-1 tri... #3 BETTOR BANK ON IT has lost by just 2 1/2 & 3 1/2 in his two turf outings, and improved in the speed figure department in doing such. Barker won with his only mid level turf winner off a break of 58-94 days, and the horse paid nicely, too. #2 ELENZEE was a runner up in his only "true" start off the shelf, and Maker ( 19% on the norm ) is 3 fer 8 with runners of this ilk ( route to sprint ) who missed the board less than 52 days back & are 14-1 or undah today ( $6, $8 & $13 ). #1 MEND UP is backed by a jockey/trainer combo who have been far superseding their individual statistics when paired up & could jazz things up on the back end.  OFF TURF: 9-1-7-4-6(MTO)  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 NO FLY ZONE will be led over by a conditioner who's 0-11 in all applicable categories.

  


Belmont Spring  (Current):     53-266      ( $450.50 )  Beatable Favorites  3-18 ( 16.7% )     Favorites Win %:    102-266 ( 38.4% )

 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-32         ( $54.20 )    Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )      Favorite's Win %:    9-32     ( 28.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-377   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 128-377  ( 34.0% )  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2168-10573 ($18,131.70) Beatable Favorites : 312-1115( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3890-10680 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2253-11141 ($18,950.90) Beatable Favorites : 327-1183( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 4014-11152  ( 36.0% ) +/-: -14.9%  against a 16.4% takeout


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