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We had our finest day ever here yesterday, as we won the last seven races on the card -- and only two of them were favored !! That gives us our longest "consecutive wins" streak, & most wins in a day as well. Those tallies give us a current flat bet profit for the meet, and a positive R.O.I. over the last 486 races ( with two to spare ). Additionally, our current hot streak stands at 64 for 201 ( $402 bet --$576 Returned ).  The exotics breakdown ( all "Ice Cold" winners ) was as follows:

-- Six Daily Doubles of $58, $22, $16, $37, $32 & $37

-- Five Pick Three's of $118, $167, $82, $186 & $126

-- A Grand Slam for $49

-- A Pick Four for $701

-- A Pick Five for $1,734 ( our first cold one ever )

-- A Pick Six for $5,371 ( our first cold one ever )

... and for good measure, a successful ( and always original ! ) "Beatable Favorite".

For you, Bijou.

 

Just a reminder that if you'd like today's Black Eyed Susan selections & analysis from Pimlico, merely go back one page.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 9 - #9 Givethemanacigar


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Belmont Park - 5/17

 

Race  1

1.Teachable Moment

2.What's to Blame

3.Carom

#2 TEACHABLE MOMENT is a $180,000 auction purchase who can be all yours for 75 large today, as apparently the high powered connections didn't think much of this one when she was last seen back in September. That being said, there's been a snippage since then, as well as a bullet gate breeze ( which we always pay heed to ), and 26% Brown is 9-21 ( 43% ) with turf stayers taking the biggest drop in the game, off breaks of 68-360 days ago ( $3.75 ROI ). #5 WHAT'S TO BLAME bested more than half the field in the Hallandale overture, and the top flight turf bloodlines tell us there's ample room for improvement. #6 CAROM is another one returning less two pistachios today, and has a fee decent running lines on the resume'.  OFF TURF: 5-9-1-12-8

 

Race  2

1.Lone Pioneer

2.Americano

3.B.B. Dude

#4 LONE PIONEER is wheeled right back in just a week, but fear not, my pets, as Atras performs miracles with those coming back in less than a fortnight at 5-1 or lower. He's a whopping 10:8-2-0 in that regards, with an R.O.I. of $6.18, and how are we to ignore those kind of numbers? #3 AMERICANO has beaten just two home in as many calls to the post, but does the ol' "two turns to one, turf to dirt, drop down" move, and note that the lone score came over this strip. #2 B.B. DUDE has hit the skids over his last troika, but drops to an all time low this afternoon, and is second off the shelf for the 1st time here. NOTE: AS OF 11:19. DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. 

 

Race  3

1.Solarte

2.Awesome Quick

3.Hoponthebusgus

#11 SOLARTE sure as hell started out her career on a splendid note when winning her first three as a lat 4 year old, and then Nagle sent her to the shelf for a bit of a freshening at the end of the year. She essentially "sacrificed" the winning streak in the comebacker, when entered going two turns for the first time. But gal was claim protected that day, so there was no risk of losing her for 16K. It's a family affair with the owner/trainer and whatnot, so they definitely turn a profit with a claim today. That aside, barn is a near perfect 4 fer 5 with turf dashers in the 15-67 day bracket at 20-1 or less ( $8, $16, $7 & $23 ). Love the draw, and they look to accentuate this one's speed by naming the bug. The more we type... #10 AWESOME QUICK hasn't been in action since mid October, but is 2 for 2 in legit layoffs on the sod, and shotcaller is 3 for 6 with locally based turf sprinters in the 68-368 day zip code at 25-1 or undah ( $17, $6 & $7 ). #3 HOPONTHEBUSGUS has been a part of the superfecta in 8 of his last ten and is as good as any for the show bread.  OFF TURF: 2-3-1-11-4(MTO)

 

Race  4 

1.Elenzee

2.Phone Funky Monkey

3.Nutzforboltz

#9 ELENZEE hasn't been seen since back to back flops in the fall, but gelding closed out the exacta in the lone turf rout over this oval, and we like that there's no scary drop for today's return. From an itty bitty sampling, shedrow has won with 2 of 3 locally based turf stayers off sabbaticals of 58-278 days. Meeeeekest of selections. #8 PHONE FUNKY MONKEY split what we would consider a tougher field at 25-1 in last, and may jazz things up at a big number. #2 NUTZFORBOLTZ hasn't been seen since rolling three "5's" after rolling a triad of "3's" last year, but the assemblage of speed figures is honest enough for this allotment.  OFF TURF: 2-4-13(MTO)-8-10  NOTE: AS OF 11:20, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Be Gone Daddy

2.Its All Relevant

3.Supreme Aura

After winning just one of his first ten, the light bulb has gone on for #2 BE GONE DADDY, as he has since won 3 of 6, including a decent placing versus slightly weaker down south on April 25th. Vitali ups his normal 17% win rate to 26% ( 4-15 ) with optional dirt sprinters who were in the money less than 46 days back & are 5-1 or less ( $2.06 ROI ). #3 ITS ALL RELEVANT tries to get one for the thumb this afternoon, and has gotten the job done in a remarkable seven of nine after starting things out on a 2-13 streak. Fun horse to root for. #5 SUPREME AURA is available for purchase for the first time in this spot and got the job done in his lone "3rd off the L/O" foray ( beneath this pilot no less ). Bravo heating up after a cold run earlier on in the year.

 

Race  6 

1.Fear

2.Outrageous Bet

3.Banana Thief

#4 FEAR has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but gelding is 4:2-1-0 right here, and from an itty bitty survey, 'Miah owns a 2 for 3 ledger w/optional turf dashers in the 68-114 day bracket at 14-1 or lower ( $8 & $5 ). Another tepid choice in a race we're having difficulty hugging. #10 OUTRAGEOUS BET is a nifty 2 of 6 @ this trip while over this strip, and encountered a bit of trouble in the most recent, so may be able to improve off of that effort. #6 BANANA THIEF is 1 for 3 off "true" layoffs, and Hall of Fame trainer gives an 8% jock a shot, which ensures effort for the minor spoils.  OFF TURF: 2(MTO)-8-1-4-6

 

Race  7

1.Eagle Pass

2.Turco Bravo ( Chi )

3.Curlin Road

#3 EAGLE PASS has hit the board in every dirt start to date, and makes the 2nd start off the Arriaga claim, who does very well in that regards with mid level dirt stock who crashed the fiesta < four dozen days ago, as he's 4 fer 5 w/that type ( all paid eight clams ). Note that the lone 2X to 1X attempt resulted in a score. #4 TURCO BRAVO (CHI) sure is an old warhorse, heh? Gelding is rapidly approaching 20 win territory, and as he's more than earned back the $25,000 purchase price from a few starts ago, the connex decide to toss him back in for that same amount today; cross entered yesterday, so check the changes. #2 CURLIN ROAD is another steady sort who will be led over by a barn who's 8 for 24 with second off the purchase runners of this ilk who crashed the board in their most recent & are 5-1 or beneath. There's a positive return on investment for that study, as well as a subcategory with those on the cutback.

 

Race  8 

1.Clench

2.Jerome Avenue

3.Hushion

#5 CLENCH tries the gramma for the first time, but that shouldn't be too difficult a transition for this one, as he's better bred for the green than the brown, and his form on the dirt has been pretty darn good so far. Another mild choice in yet another difficult heat. #1 JEROME AVENUE was last seen in a race where six returnees have amassed a 2-1-0-2 ledger in their followup outings ( from five different races ), with an avg. Beyer improvement of two points per horse, and has been freshened up a bit for this. #6 HUSHION is another going over the blades for the first time, and although the Tommy is kinda low for the surface, quite often, dirt speed can carry them a long way.  OFF TURF: 1-8-5-4-6

 

Race  9 

1.Jack the Cat ( AE )

2.Tammany Giant

3.Magnesite

#14 JACK THE CAT (AE) needs a couple to get out in order to get in, but should that come to bear, brings in tow an ( for this grouping ) honest enough speed figure from the debut, and Bravo sticks around for today's drop in class. #2 TAMMANY GIANT is pretty much a professional maiden these days, but has partaken in the superfecta in three of his last four starts on the sod, and may surprise at a big numero. #3 MAGNESITE finished 3rd in the lone turf try and if you can draw a line through the wet track disaster ( which we think you should ), then this one definitely has a shot.  OFF TURF: 12-6-4-1-15(MTO)  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #9 GIVETHEMANACIGAR most definitely fills the bill here, as barn is 0-27 with all relevant categories.  NOTE: AS OF 11:25, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 


Belmont Spring  (Current):      26-109     ( $222.00 )  Beatable Favorites    2-8 ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:     47-109 ( 43.1% )

 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-27         ( $50.00 )    Beatable Favorites: 0-1    ( 0.0% )      Favorite's Win %:    8-27    ( 29.6% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-372   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 127-372  ( 34.1% )  +/-: -25.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2168-10568 ($18,131.70) Beatable Favorites : 312-1112( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 3889-10675 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.2% against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2253-11136 ($18,950.90) Beatable Favorites : 327-1180( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4013-11147  ( 36.0% ) +/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.4% takeout


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