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Just one winner on a washout of a day Sunday, but our extended hot streak still stands at 57 for 192 ( $384 Bet -- $512 Returned ),

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #6 Balon Rose


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Belmont Park - 5/16

 

Race  1

1.Singular Sensation

2.Happy Sophia

3.Alphadora

#3 SINGULAR SENSATION bested half the field first time outta the box a little over a month ago, and two returnees from that affair came back to win their next time out ( from four starters ). Runner is slightly better bred for a fast track than a wet one, so there's some room for improvement here. 12% Hennig more than quadruples that average with second time starters over this oval and at this level @ 10-1 or less ( $16, $13, $3, $7 & $10 ). Big shot. #6 HAPPY SOPHIA was disqualified from any purse money from the last after the horse tested positive for an illegal substance in her system. Not sure what to make of a horse coming off a juiced up deal, but we'll leave in the mix because of the two solid outings prior to that. #1 ALPHADORA by no means disgraced herself when tossed into the deep end of the pool last out, and poses a big threat to a level where she showed improving figaros just prior to that.

 

Race  2

1.Star of the East

2.Athary ( Ire )

3.La Vida

#9 STAR OF THE EAST lost by just a noggin in the first try off an elongated break, and should definitely move up off that performance -- especially with Lasix now in the mix. Four year old faces several younger foes this afternoon, and has shown the ability to send or rate a bit. #6 ATHARY (IRE) makes her first start in the U.S. of A today, and as usually with these shippers, gets a dose of the "wonder drug" for the 1st time. You don't see very many maidens cutting back from a couple of mile and a quarter races to a mile in their third starts, and this is another runner w/a bit of a maturity edge. #2 LA VIDA didn't show much of "the life" when being sent off at 58-1 first time outta the box 47 days back, but the # came back honest enough, and Manny Man sees fit to get on.  OFF TURF: 2-3-9-4-8(MTO)  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 BALON ROSE will be led over by a conditioner who's 0-8 with local firsters fitting all these conditions at 9-1 or less ( fillies, 3YO & up ).

 

Race  3

1.There He Goes

2.Change of Venue

3.Purchasing Power

#2 THERE HE GOES has partaken in the super in each start since coming back off a long break, and Gargan has done very well with second off the L/O locally based mid level dirt stock who hit the board last out & are less than 6-1. There's a sub category of 3-4 with Kendrick in the irons, and in a bit of an anomaly, this speedster draws the 1/2 slot for the first time. #4 CHANGE OF VENUE has blinkers added by a conditioner  who's 2 for 3 with that sort of change. #6 PURCHASING POWER has been beset by numerous layoff lines, but finds himself at an all time low today, and was last seen in a race where five comebackers have amassed a 5:3-1-1 ledger in their subsequent outings ( four different races ), with an appreciable Beyer improvement for that grouping. 

 

Race  4

1.High Jingo

2.Out of Trouble

3.Mentality

#7 HIGH JINGO hasn't faced the starter in 11 flips of the calendar, but barn does well with turf dashes off elongated absences ( 220-424 days ), as they're a snazzy 11:6-3-0 in that regards ( $4.52 ROI ). Mare lost by less than a length in the lone try on this course and gets Irad in the irons. #6 OUT OF TROUBLE is another one returning off an elongated absence, but was a game runner up in the lone "true" start off a break, and owns a win and a placing in the only two starts when entered with a tag. #5 MENTALITY completes our troika of selections coming in off a sabbatical, and has crashed the super in all three starts off of such.  OFF TURF: 8(MTO)-5-9(MTO)-4-11

 

Race  5

1.Dark N Cloudy

2.Crea's Bklyn Law

3.Leap to Glory

#4 DARK N CLOUDY was extremely disappointing in the most recent, but runners from this barn rarely flop two times in a row, and grey flash got the job done the last time he was available for purchase. Slim margin in a heat where we were unable to eliminate anyone with our first draft. #5 CREA'S BKLYN LAW is confidently hiked up in the first start after a Nevin purchase, and this despite the fact that he's out of jail. Nibbler has hit the board in 7 of 9 @ Elmont, and Manny Man climbs aboard. #1 LEAP TO GLORY is 3:2-1-0 with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump, but is 5:0-1-0 when breaking from the pine; mixed signals.

 

Race  6

1.Hampton Point

2.Burning Man

3.Elfitz

#5 HAMPTON POINT takes the biggest drop in the game for today's 2nd off the L/O attempt, and Toner ( from a small survey ) has won three of five when giving his turf stayers this kind of plunge at 30-1 or less ( $30 & $3 x 2 ). #9 BURNING MAN was a lively runner up first time outta the box back in late February, and all returnees from that heat came back to ring up a cumulative 9:3-2-0 in their subsequent outings ( seven different races ), w/an average Beyer improvement of 10.1 pts. Not comprehending why they gave this one the unkindest cut of all after the debut, but we'll include anyway. #10 ELFITZ is third off the break today and has improving figaros while getting a positive jockey change.  OFF TURF: 9-1-3-5-7  NOTE: DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Devamani ( Fr )

2.The Green Mo'ster

3.Bird's Eye View

#2 DEVAMANI (FR) returned off a long break in the action to get up in time down in Hallandale Beach on 3/21, and as this one has done well in second off the break forays in the past, one might say that a repeat is well within reach. Not a standout by any stretch of the imagination, just a tepid selection. #5 THE GREEN MO'STER takes the obligatory hike up in class after the Gulfstream tally on April 25th, and has closed out the triple in both starts for Saez. #7 BIRD'S EYE VIEW rounds out the tri ( which is another way of saying that we're very uninspired about this deal.  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-4(MTO)-3-2-5

 

Race  8

1.Freudnme

2.Lutsky

3.Seed Money

#5 FREUDNME got the job done at first asking for Double D, and did so at big odds, despite smacking into the starting apparatus at the onset. The figure earned from that day was decent enough, and we'll give this one a slight edge. #3 LUTSKY regressed when going over the goo for the 1st time, but perhaps it was somewhat attributed to a slight bounce, being second off the break and all. Chance to rebound with a switch back to the lone winning pilot along w/eye cups being affixed. #1 SEED MONEY was overmatched in the NYB stakes, but is obviously back at a more palatable level here, and we'll toss in the hopper.  NOTE: AS OF 1:10, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET THE #4 WILL BE OUR FIRST SELECTION.  NOTE: DUE TO THE TRACK BEING FAST, OUR ORIGINAL SELECTIONS ARE NOW IN PLAY.

 

Race  9

1.Taniell's Candy

2.Mz Seb Pat

3.Caralicious

#1 TANIELL'S CANDY finished 3rd in this race first time out for Lynch, and pedigree tells us that there's ample room for improvement. The only issue we have with this one is whether or not she'll be able to work out a stalking trip from this inside slot, should Dylan not break her on top. #6 MZ SEB PAT hasn't seen the scene since turkey time, but slides down the ladder and may perk up. #9 CARALICIOUS gets a big time jockey switch for today's finale, and finished 3rd here last autumn.  OFF TURF: 1-4-13(MTO)-9-12  NOTE: DUE TO SEVERAL SCRATCHES, THE #'s 2 & 3 WILL BE OUR SECOND AND THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

 
Belmont Spring  (Current):      19-100     ( $166.20 )  Beatable Favorites    2-7 ( 28.6% )      Favorites Win %:     45-100 ( 45.0% )

 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-27         ( $50.00 )    Beatable Favorites: 0-1    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:    8-27    ( 29.6% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-372   ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 127-372  ( 34.1% )  +/-: -25.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2168-10568 ($18,131.70) Beatable Favorites : 312-1112( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 3889-10675 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.2% against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2253-11136 ($18,950.90) Beatable Favorites : 327-1180( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4013-11147  ( 36.0% ) +/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.4% takeout


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