Another good day for us here yesterday, as we got home two winners ( $31 & $4 ) & an Ice Cold $93 Daily Double as well. We've won 9 of our last 18, have a flat bet profit for the meet, have shown a positive R.O.I. over the last 496 races ( with 10 losses to spare ), and our current hot streak now stands at 55 for 211 ( $422 Bet --- $611 returned ).
Just a reminder that if you would like today's Belmont full card selections & analysis, merely go back one page.
AMAZING news for us here. If you loved the annual homage I write about my father every year for SaratogaBets , you'll be happy to know that I was asked to do a reading for "Our American Stories" (1.7 million weekly listeners), and guess what -- here it is ! http://www.ouramericannetwork.org/story?title=My-Parents-Are-Gone-But-Their-Traditions-Aren-t&fbclid=IwAR0nxu9wzv3sHr3853i6prcuIYN43GK6J-1YaDzmy7ft7oIE2CD5AbDiCjU
I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): #4 Improbabale
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Graded Stakes - 5/18 - Preakness Stakes
Race 13 Preakness Stakes
3.War of Will
Big race of the day is the Preakness Stakes, and win or lose, we OF COURSE hope that any jockey objections last 21 minutes or less, and that -- heavens to Betsy -- (whoever Betsy is ), should there be an objection, that ALL interested parties be interviewed ( in the interests of horse racing, of course ) before disqualifications are made. That being said... #5 OWENDALE rebounded exceptionally well after getting trounced in the first try against stakes winners three months ago, to win the G2 Lexington at Keeneland, and there's an excellent DRF Formulator stat in play in regards to that. Over the last 260 weeks, Brad Cox ( dig it ) who normally wins 25% of the time with graded dirt routers who won 20-50 days ago ( 20-1 or less ) is 4 for 7 with 2nd off the layoff types within that timeframe ( $12, $4, $7 & $9 ). The only time this one was second off the shelf, a win was the end result, and note the bullet breeze since the last. we love this one's ability to close or sit just off the pace, and has a big time shot. #2 BOURBON WAR hasn't disgraced himself in pretty much any start to date, and has blinkers added by Mark Hennig. Deserves to be left in the mix. #1 WAR OF WILL ( 0-4 when breaking from the rail to the six hole, and 2-5 from the seven slot on out ) draws the rail once again, and while the fast track numbers are good, will need a patient ride from today's inside slot -- even if that means waiting for a hole turning into the stretch. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 IMPROBABLE will be led over by a 25% trainer who's half that with graded dirt stayers that were off the board 30-60 days back between the odds of even money and 3-1.
Belmont Spring (Current): 28-118 ( $257.50 ) Beatable Favorites 3-9 ( 33.3% ) Favorites Win %: 50-118 ( 42.4% )( As of Saturday morning )
Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 32-110 ( $322.60 ) Beatable Favorites 1-4 ( 25.0% ) Favorites Win %: 39-110 ( 35.5% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 73-374 ( $490.60 ) Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % ) Favorites Win %: 150-374 ( 40.1% )
Graded Stakes ( Final ): 3-21 ( $13.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 0-1 ( 0.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 6-21 ( 28.6% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):
( 2013-2019 Final ) 60-366 ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-366 ( 34.2% ) +/-: -29.1% against a 17.1% takeout
Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68 ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587 ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6% against a 15.6% takeout
Dirt Tracks 2013-9 (All Final):2166-10562 ($18,094.70) Beatable Favorites : 312-1112( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 3887-10666 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.3% against a 16.8% takeout
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 2251-11130 ($18,913.90) Beatable Favorites : 327-1180( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4011-11141 ( 36.0% ) +/-: -15.0% against a 16.5% takeout