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Another BIG day for us here yesterday as we got home a profitable three bagger ( $17, $5 & $6 ), three Rolling Daily Doubles of $38, $68 & $59, two Rolling Pick 3's of $422 & $228, and a fat $1,902 Rolling Pick 4 at the end of the day. Our current run stands at a whopping 25 for 63 ( 40% ), with $126 Bet & $281.30 Returned over that time !!

AMAZING news for us here. If you loved the annual homage I write about my father every year for SaratogaBets , you'll be happy to know that I was asked to do a reading for "Our American Stories" (1.7 million weekly listeners), and guess what -- here it is !  http://www.ouramericannetwork.org/story?title=My-Parents-Are-Gone-But-Their-Traditions-Aren-t&fbclid=IwAR0nxu9wzv3sHr3853i6prcuIYN43GK6J-1YaDzmy7ft7oIE2CD5AbDiCjU

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 4/19

 

Race  1

1.Pletcher Entry

2.Maven

3.Lebda

Both the #1 ANALYZE YOUR RISK and #1A MANAGING RISK are decently bred for today's debuts ( they own two of the three highest Tomlinson figures in the field ), and lure two of the best jockeys in the business for the onset to their careers. The former is the first foal by a sire who was 2 for 5 in dirt dashes ( a G2 win there ), and the latter is a half to a couple of 3X winners at this dance. #4 MAVEN has been performing sensationally for today's overture, and Double D has done some nice work for Ward, who gave him some breaks at the onset of his career. #5 LEBDA ( cross entered at Laurel today, so check the changes ) is the first foal to race out of a dam who was 6 for 37 in dirt dashes ( $247K ) and was sired by an hombre who was 1-3 doing the same. 

 

Race  2

1.Arewehavingfunyet

2.Elizabeth Nicole

3.Preziosa

#4 AREWEHAVINGFUNYET destroys these. #3 ELIZABETH NICOLE sheds ten pounds off an okay third place finish 19 days ago, and could give a better showing today. #1 PREZIOSA hasn't shown much of late, but is historically better over a fast track and may perk up a bit in ( after our top selection ) a lackluster grouping. 

 

Race  3

1.La Feve ( Fr )

2.Aunt Hattie ( Ire )

3.Her Royal Highness

#3 LA FEVE (FR) ( one half of the uncoupled Brown entry ) has posted a couple of okay running lines since arriving in the States, and is 3rd off the shelf today while sliding off the rail a bit. Slight edge in a wide open feature. #6 AUNT HATTIE (IRE) has but one blemish on the resume in five starts to date and is reunited with the pilot from the maiden breaking score this afternoon. #1 HER ROYAL HIGHNESS completes the "Wine/Scotch/Beer" triple based on the solid adjusted figure from the initial turf attempt as well as the fact that Franco is lured to ride.  OFF TURF: 1-2-4-6-7(MTO)

 

Race  4 

1.Hay Field

2.Archumybaby

3.Our Super Nova

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #1 HAY FIELD is 8:3-3-0 locally, 2:1-1-0 when breaking from the pine, and 3:2-1-0 with Manny Man in the irons. Toss in the nice DRF Formulator stat which has 'Miah at 14:8-1-1 with second off the L/O optional dirt sprinters who hit the board last time out at < 4-1 ( $4.00+ ROI ). #2 ARCHUMYBABY posted a monster numbah in the starter stakes deal, and is an obvious factor off that fig alone. #6 OUR SUPER NOVA has been working well for the comebacker & has won one of two off the bench. ( P.S. --- We STILL love My Roxy Girl !! )

 

Race  5

1.Adorable Song

2.Shady Shady Shady

3.Codrington

#2 ADORABLE SONG has been befallen by a few layoff lines, and although the last time this one touched the sod she ran up the track, and adjusted 798. was the end result. Granted, there's been a LOT of water under the bridge since then, but Alvarado ( who was aboard for said turf try ) is back on today, and he's won 3 of 5 for Bond over the last 60 months ( $5 & $8 x 2 ). #1 SHADY SHADY SHADY hasn't been seen since Toga, but was in the exacta in both starts last year, and scored when stretching out for the first time ( never easy to do ). May need a start, but we'll chunk in, just in case. #8 CODRINGTON has beaten just nine home in her last five calls to the post, but has shot off a nice gate move for today's new ( and hot ) conditioner, and we'll include at what should be a square numero.  11-12-3-1-14(MTO) 

 

Race  6 

1.Mills 

2.It's All Relevant 

3.Shareholder Value

#1 MILLS ( one part of an uncoupled Duggan entry ) is a nibbler by rote ( 55:6-12-12 ), but has been freshened up for the first start in a new shedrow, drops down a bit, and loses the eye cups for the first time in a while. Junior ain't giving up on this one and nor will we. #2 IT'S ALL RELEVANT has won three in a row, five of six, six of nine, loves this trip, digs this strip, and should be no worse than third -- for all you show punters. #4 SHAREHOLDER VALUE is another who has fared purdy well at this dx., but is 0-4 off the bench, so we'll leave beneath. 

 

Race  7

1.River Echo ( GB )

2.Spring to the Sky

3.Spectrolite

#4 RIVER ECHO (GB) ( entered on 4/18 ) is one of many runners fleeing the scene out west, and while the layoff definitely gives pause for the cause, gelding has won one of three off a hiatus. Mild choice in a yucky race. #2 SPRING TO THE SKY hasn't been in action for more than five flips of the calendar, but TEN year old ( go get 'em, buddy ! ) has never been entered this cheaply and has done nice things @ this dist.; the only bugaboo is that he's winless of a L/O, so we'll be leaving in our unders, despite Bruce being ( from a tiny sampling ) 2 for 3 w/runners of this ilk off absences of more than 67 days ( 17-1 or less ), with mutuels of $12 & $23. #7 SPECTROLITE hasn't been led into the gate in two turkey days, but was doing sensational work when last seen and is an obvious factor if fully geared up.  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-1A(MTO)-2-7-3  NOTE: AS OF 12:48. DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Kaden's Courage

2.Rally Cap

3.Stink Man

#6 KADEN'S COURAGE didn't have to be entered for a tag today, but as this one has more than earned back the $2,500 stud fee, I guess the connections figure they can take the money and run. Blinks stay on, despite the recent disappointment, and Rudy Rod is a fantastic 7 for 13 when spotting his locally based dirt sprinters in for a tag for the 1st time ( 16-50 days ) at 4-1 or beneath, and has a positive return on investment in that area. Despite having hit the board in four straight, the snippers were taken to the #3 RALLY CAP after the most recent ( we might've given this one another shot or two ), and there's been a bullet move since, so apparently the "weight off" has helped somewhat ( in the mornings, at least ). #4 STINK MAN was claimed out of a winning debut on the first of March, but despite that solid effort, Franco sticks with our secondary selection. 

 

Race  9 

1.Uncle Curly

2.Quick Charge

3.Golconda

#9 UNCLE CURLY improved in a big way when going brown to green second time out, finishing across the line first down in Oldsmar, but subsequently getting DQ'd for getting touchy feely in the lane. Grey guy received the unkindest cut of all after that ( kinda harsh, dontcha think? ) but now returns with a stronger rider in the saddle. C-Squared ( 19% on the norm ) is 4 of 6 with maiden special weight turf stayers off breaks of 67-155 days, beneath the 7-1 watermark ( males ) w/mutuels of $3, $6 & $4 x 2. #11 QUICK CHARGE ( one letter away from a great comedy, called "Quick Change" ) lost by just three lengths in the initial stretchout back in the fall, and has been given some time to develop since that day. Carmouche has some experience with this one, and you may get a nice price here. #4 GOLCONDA has been a part of the superfecta in his last two turf routes, and accomplished such at double digit odds. The most recent dirt to turf go round resulted in an honest showing at 49-1.  OFF TURF: 1-13(MTO)-2(MTO)5-7

 


Aqueduct Spring (Current):    28-92      ( $308.50 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4    ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    31-92    ( 33.7% )( As of Friday morning )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374    ( $490.60 )  Beatable Favorites: 7-23  ( 30.4 % )      Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     3-20         ( $13.00 )   Beatable Favorites: 0-1    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:    6-20     ( 30.0% ) 


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2018 Final ) 60-366   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-366  ( 34.2% )  +/-: -29.1% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568       ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-8 (All Final):2134-10451 ($17,772.10) Beatable Favorites : 311-1108( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 3848-10554 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.9%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2219-11019 ($18,591.30) Beatable Favorites : 326-1176( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4011-11141 ( 36.0% ) +/-:  -15.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017