Just a couple of chalky winners on a day chock filled of the stuff yesterday, however our streak still stands at a robust 22 for 54 ( $108 Bet -- $253.40 Returned ).

AMAZING news for us here. If you loved the annual homage I write about my father every year for SaratogaBets , you'll be happy to know that I was asked to do a reading for "Our American Stories" (1.7 million weekly listeners), and guess what -- here it is !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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Aqueduct - 4/18


Race  1


2.Can U Handle This

3.Bizness Beauty

#1 XANTHIQUE improved by about 48% from the first start to the next, and pedigree tells us that both solid performances were likely legit, so we can feel free to delve further. Over the last 60 weeks + 1 day, Ribaudo ( who normally wins 11% of his races ) is a snappy 6:4-2-0 with maiden claining dirt stock who hit the board less than 50 days ago ( $13, $11, $6 & $4 ). Only bugaboo is the bug boy, who leaves a bit to be desired at this point in the game. #2 CAN U HANDLE THIS will be the only one we'll be utilizing as an exacta saver, given the solid first and third starts. #7 BIZNESS BEAUTY ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) has partaken in the superfecta in seven straight, and that's enough reason for us to toss underneath, despite the barn being on an 0-30 streak or so. 


Race  2


2.Golden Vale

3.Princess Mikayah

#2 MAGARI was freshened up a bit after the post Valentine's Day score, and that happened to be off a L/O, which brought her mark to 4:1-0-1-1 when doing such.  Pre layoff Junior returns ( which we always dig ), and 007 is a poyfect 4 fer 4 with Aqueduct based mid level dirt stock off breaks of 51-74 days ( 11-1 or lower ). The mutuels for that sampling were $5, $11, $13 & $8, and note that there are no monsters in here. #5 GOLDEN VALE was an okay runner up in this deal last time out and could improve if able to save a bit of ground at some point. #6 PRINCESS MIKAYAH has been a part of the tri in her last five and we'll toss in the mix. 


Race  3

1.Heavy Meddle 


3.Bootlegger ( Fr )

We have absolutely zero read on this race, so be careful... #2 HEAVY MEDDLE went all the way the only time he went brown to green and long to short, and actually finished 3rd ( by a length ) when doing such in a sprint, as well. Five year old has been ITM in 6 of 7 when starting from posts 1-3 ( 8 of 17 otherwise ), and we like to see the big hike in class, despite having been kept in jail. Mild choice. #3 HERECOMESYOURMAN takes the obligatory step up in class after besting N2L foes and makes sense in this spot. #7 BOOTLEGGER (FR) gets a big jock upgrade and can close things out.  OFF TURF: 4-1-2-1A-6


Race  4 

1.Dazzling Speed

2.Carlisle Belle

3.Party in the Sand

#5 DAZZLING SPEED has been a completely different animal in the last duet, and while we realize there's an appreciable hike in class today, there's also a blinker addition along with an eight pound reduction in the weight department. Demand value for a winless trainer. #4 CARLISLE BELLE is 1 for 2 in 3rd off the L/O go-rounds, and gets a big time upgrade in the jockey today. Looks like a legit 1-2-3 playah. #6 PARTY IN THE SAND is still kept $10K above the price claimed from three back, and that's despite having only managed a fourth place finish since the purchase. Good to see Double D stick around. 


Race  5

1.Field Patrol

2.Wiicked Trick


#6 FIELD PATROL has had difficulty at the onset in pretty much every start to date, but rallied nicely in the most recent, and followed that up with a sizzling bullet ( best of 63 ) at Keeneland. Manny gets the call today, and Maker is the man with maiden claiming turf stayers who crashed the fiesta 6-50 days ago & are 3-1 or less today, as he's 11-32 ( 34% ) in that regards. #3 WICKED TRICK has oodles of speed, but has lost ground in the lane in all starts but one, so what's different today? Well, there's a new trainer in the mix, and he sent this one off to an uncharacteristic quick morning move six days ago. Grab him by the tail to get the glory. #1 GARSOON has some grotesque running lines, but goes long on firm ground for the first time today and is decently bred for this trip. OFF TURF: 2-7-4-6-8


Race  6 

1.Awesome Ammo 

2.Freudian Sip

3.Wicked Grin

#10 AWESOME AMMO begins his professional working life today, and does such with some nice works in tow. What clicked with us was the fact that this one has three straight gate breezes on display, and while conventional handicapping would consider that a negative for a firster ( slow out of the box? ), something clicked in our head that made us do some research... Last week, Papa Englehart won with a first time starter who showed the exact same work pattern -- and at a fat price, too! That one was away dead last that day and came with a flourish, so perhaps the apple hasn't fallen far from the tree with 'Miah's methodology? The only time this outfit has started a 3YO male maiden special weight turf sprinter ( first time out ), it won -- and to the tune of 70 big ones. We love the draw ( of course ), and Junior has been killing it for this clan. The more we type... #7 FREUDIAN SIP has shown nothing in thje first two, but is a May foal, so there's some room for improvement here. #9 WICKED GRIN hasn't been seen since turkey time, but gets the wonder drug for the 1st time, and lone turf dash over firm ground was a corker.  OFF TURF: 1-3-5-2-8


Race  7


2.Reed Kan

3.Bon Raison

#1 SEETHISQUICK has been a completely different animal since switching barns, having finished second before reeling off a troika of wins ( all were caree best Beyer #'s ). Why go fishing to try and beat this one -- "Ride him until he bucks you or don't ride at all." -- Tin Cup  #2 REED KAN is another who's done exceptional work for a new shotcaller, digs this joint, and is 2 fer 2 in second off the shelf forays; must include in your rollers. #4 BON RAISON sheds 32 oz. after a score ( which is nice ) and just won at this tricky distance.


Race  8 

1.Wushu Warrior


3.Leap to Glory

#4 WUSHU WARRIOR was visually impressive in besting conditional claimers on March 23rd, and before you tell us this is a "hike up" we don't quite see it that way ( more of a lateral move in our eyes ). Mildest of selections in one of the most evenly matched races of the meeting. #7 BINKSTER displayed some early hoof before fading in the 2nd off the L/O try, so I guess the question will be: Do you get the last number, the next to last number, or somewhere in the middle? Note that tyhe only two returnees from the most recent came back to win -- posting Beyers in the 90's. #1 LEAP TO GLORY has hit the board in his last triumvirate, but is 0-4 when breaking from the wood; leaving beneath. 


Race  9 


2.The Sinner Is You


With the exception of one other contender, #1 TIZGAME is an "Omnifig", in that both of his starts supersede anything that the rest of the field has posted. In addition to that, he will probably be well schooled for today's initial surface switch, as Rice is really nice when putting Mdspwt. dashers on the gramma for the first time off breaks of 49 days or lower, as she's 5-11 w/that type ( $7, $8, $21, $10 & $7 ). Looks powerful. #9 THE SINNER IS YOU ( ouch ) showed zippo in the overture, but is extremely well bred for this sorta deal, and we're expecting marked improvement today. #5 TENENCY has been working well for the comebacker.  OFF TURF: 1-3-4-6-7


Aqueduct Spring (Current):    25-83      ( $280.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4    ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    29-83    ( 32.4% )( As of Thursday morning )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374    ( $490.60 )  Beatable Favorites: 7-23  ( 30.4 % )      Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     3-20         ( $13.00 )   Beatable Favorites: 0-1    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:    6-20     ( 30.0% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2018 Final ) 60-366   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-366  ( 34.2% )  +/-: -29.1% against a 17.1% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568       ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-8 (All Final):2134-10451 ($17,772.10) Beatable Favorites : 311-1108( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 3848-10554 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.9%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2219-11019 ($18,591.30) Beatable Favorites : 326-1176( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4011-11141 ( 36.0% ) +/-:  -15.6%  against a 16.6% takeout