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Best....week...ever... for us here last week. We closed it out by getting home a grand slam ( $3, $40, $12 & $13 ), FIVE Exacta boxes of $6, $160, $14, $30 & $97, a cold double of $53, and a Quinella box of $72. Oh yeah, toss in a $35 Ice Cold Triple at Oaklawn & another winner there as well, making our finest run ever now 20 for 45 !! 

MOST importantly, that after just the 2nd race, we achieved the Holy Grail of Public Handicapping for the SEVENTH time here --  a guaranteed FLAT BET PROFIT for the meet ,,, and did so with FIVE days left in the meeting.

Here's looking at you, Bijou.

 

AMAZING news for us here. If you loved the annual homage I write about my father every year for SaratogaBets , you'll be happy to know that I was asked to do a reading for "Our American Stories" (1.7 million weekly listeners), and guess what -- here it is !  http://www.ouramericannetwork.org/story?title=My-Parents-Are-Gone-But-Their-Traditions-Aren-t&fbclid=IwAR0nxu9wzv3sHr3853i6prcuIYN43GK6J-1YaDzmy7ft7oIE2CD5AbDiCjU

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 9 - #5 Mom's Kisses


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 4/17

 

Race  1

1.Pletcher Entry

2.Tote Board

3.Lady Delaware

Both the #1 MICROMILLION and the #1A MO MYSTERY are backed by identical 5 for 11 trainer stats which has The Toddster at just that with firsters fitting ALL these exact conditions at 8-1 or less ( any jockey ). The former went for more than seven times the stud fee at auction, and the latter was bred for 125 large. You could do a lot worse. #8 TOTE BOARD showed zippo in the mornings at a private training center, then poof ! -- fired off a best of 29 breeze from the gate, which always merits inclusion. If we lose, it would be cool if a $5,000 animal beats the elites. #6 LADY DELAWARE is setting stopwatches ablaze in the morning, and while we'll be including, it's with a touch of trepidation, given the low 296 Tomlinson figure.  NOTE: AS OF 11:40, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, THE #'S 7 & 5 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race  2

1.Preternatural

2.Blue Skies Forever

3.Quintarelli 

#7 PRETERNATURAL hasn't been seen since Toga time of 2018, and was claimed that day by Rudy Rod, who is simply on fire these days. Runner put forth a nice effort in the lone try off the break, and barn is a groovy 7:5-1-1 with first off the claim maiden claiming dirt stock off breaks of 51-167 days ( $3.02 return on investment ). #4 BLUE SKIES FOREVER is wheeled right back in less than a week, but that's okay, as Jimmy is 8:3-2-0 with dirt dashers at 11 days or less ( 8-1 or < ). Ten pound bug is slowwwwwwwwwly improving. #6 QUINTARELLI had absolutely NO excuse for the late fade last time out, but we'll chunk beneath because of the penultimate start over a fast surface. 

 

Race  3

1.Traffic Stop

2.False Info

3.Don Polo

Typing this as Winx is about to be loaded into the gate....be right back.

Wow.

#3 TRAFFIC STOP was quite disappointing in the first try against winners, but that happens with many maiden breakers, and we'll give this one a chance to rebound in a wide open affair. #1 FALSE INFO has an exceptional body of work for this allotment and is entered at his lowest price to date. Logical. #7 DON POLO as good as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 1-3-6-7-1A

 

Race  4 

1.Avocado

2.Cashmere Woods

3.Finance Reform

#11 AVOCADO posted a couple of nice running lines for Pletcher down in Florida, and has since been transferred over to Rudy Rod, who immediately enlists the services of Manuel Franco for today's northern overture. Of course, we love the draw. #7 CASHMERE WOODS went for three times the stud fee at auction, but is entered for 1/3rd of that price today. Obviously, either something went slightly amiss from the sale to now, or maybe they just don't think much of the animal. That being said, we'll toss in because of the connex. #1 FINANCE REFORM closes out the tri.  OFF TURF: 7-1-8(MTO)-5-6

 

Race  5

1.Mo Soul

2.Orpheus ( Arg ) 

3.O SheaCan U See 

#2 MO SOUL ( second off the shelf today ) improved by about 20% from the first off the L/O try to the 2nd, and as if the win last time out wasn't enough to convince you, that factoid should only add to the allure. Gelding switches over to "The Great One" today, and gets New York's 2018 leading rider as well. Hard to fault. #3 ORPHEUS (ARG) closed out the exacta at 28-1 in a restricted stakes deal 18 days ago, and gets an upgrade in the jockey dept. today.  #4 OH SHEA CAN U SEE has hit the board in four of six at the trip.  NOTE: AS OF 11:45, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-3-7.

 

Race  6 

1.Sams Last Ghasp

2.Persaud Entry

3.Curlin's New Moon

#7 SAMS LAST GHASP showed absolutely zippo in the first try against winners, but let's not judge too harshly, as that's never an easy step up, and he was in fact 68-1 that afternoon. Eligible to surprise at a big price today back in for a tag. Both the #1 FLAT OUT JAYVIEN & #1A BUSS THE BELL are backed by identical DRF Formulator stats which has Randi at 6-16 when hiking up his locally based mid level dirt dashers by 50% or more below the 21-1 water mark ( OTB last out ). The winners came back $14, $43, $34. $7, $9 & $19. Not too shabby, huh ? #4 CURLIN'S NEW MOON completed the triple in a nearly identical spot last out, and seems sensible to be a part of the action once again.  NOTE: AS OF 11:55, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Dowse's Beach

2.Shiraz

3.Outrageous Bet

#1A DOWSE'S BEACH has that perfect type of "declining" record that we've grown to love ( 35:10-5-3 ), as it shows he always fights for that line, and this one is also backed by a nice trainer stat which has Servis at a crisp 6 for 9 ( $3.73 ROI ) w/ optional turf sprinters off breaks of 57-67 days. Oh yeah -- this one is 3 fer 4 in 2nd starts off "true" layoffs, and go to jock takes the call. #3 SHIRAZ is a bit of a nibblah at the trip ( 9:1-5-0 ) and finished 2nd in the only start off a break; looking good for the "undahs". #5 OUTRAGEOUS BET has a 3rd & a 4th in both tries off an absence, and may grind out a share.  OFF TURF: 3-1-2-5-1A   NOTE: AS OF 11:57, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Honor Way 

2.Big Birthday

3.Pauseforthecause

#2 HONOR WAY gets an appreciable drop in class today, and Rice is a nice 3 for 5 with Ozone Park based runners of this ilk at 7-2 or under ( off the board 14-50 days ago ), The winners came back $7, $3 & $4, and we'll give a slight nod to this one. #1 BIG BIRTHDAY has finished third in both attempts off the layoff, and given the jock & trainer, you have to leave this one in all your action -- both vertical and horizontal. #4 PAUSEFORTHECAUSE has been in the money in eight straight, and how the gosh darn do we leave a runner like that out of the mix?  NOTE: AS OF 12:16, WE HAVE FLIP FLOPPED OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  9 

1.Youth Gone Wild

2.Annette's Humor

3.Peggy Sue

#1A YOUTH GONE WILD has some ugly running lines of late, but they've been on the dirt, and this one is predominately a turf runner. That being said, Ubilio owes us nothing, as he and this rider got home a big winner for us the other day, and as a matter of fact, this 9% barn is 4 for 19 when going green to brown with those > 10-1 & < 40-1 ( less than 58 days ), and oh lawdy, just look at these prices -- $57, $75, $69 & $79 !! #4 ANNETTE'S HUMOR has crashed the super in six straight, and although the turf bloodlines leave a bit to be desired, consistency alone, is reason to include in a group such as this. #3 PEGGY SUE is 2nd off the bench today & is receipt of a pilot upgrade.  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-7-2-4-12   BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 MOM'S KISSES

 


Aqueduct Spring (Current):    23-74      ( $270.90 )  Beatable Favorites   0-3    ( 0.0% )      Favorites Win %:    24-74    ( 32.4% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374    ( $490.60 )  Beatable Favorites: 7-23  ( 30.4 % )    Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     3-20         ( $13.00 )   Beatable Favorites: 0-1    ( 0.0% )        Favorite's Win %:    6-20     ( 30.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2018 Final ) 60-366   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-366  ( 34.2% )  +/-: -29.1% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568       ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-8 (All Final):2134-10451 ($17,772.10) Beatable Favorites : 311-1108( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 3848-10554 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.9%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2219-11019 ($18,591.30) Beatable Favorites : 326-1176( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4011-11141 ( 36.0% ) +/-:  -15.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017