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Just one lonely winner on top yesterday, but we were soothed by a couple;a triple boxes of $185 & $42.

As we've done on New Year's Eve's & St. Patrick's Day's in the past, we will encourage safe driving this Sunday, by making up to a $10 donation to Old Friends at Cabin Creek for anyone who sends us a photo of a cab/Uber receipt from 4PM to 4AM on Sunday in that person's name. We want y'all to have fun AND be safe AND do it all while helping our retired equines ! 

AMAZING news for us here. If you loved the annual homage I write about my father every year for SaratogaBets , you'll be happy to know that I was asked to do a reading for "Our American Stories" (1.7 million weekly listeners), and guess what -- here it is !  http://www.ouramericannetwork.org/story?title=My-Parents-Are-Gone-But-Their-Traditions-Aren-t&fbclid=IwAR0nxu9wzv3sHr3853i6prcuIYN43GK6J-1YaDzmy7ft7oIE2CD5AbDiCjU

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 3/17 - Happy Saint Patrick's Day

 

Race  1

1.Binkster 

2.Expert

3.Potomac

#2 BINKSTER returned off the claim ( and elongated break ) to go pillar to post right here against cheaper on 2/7, and the figure earned from that day was by far a career best. Barn ( from an itty bitty survey ) is 2 for 3 with second off the claim dirt stock who won their last & are 11-1 or less today ( $13 & $9 ). Slim margin in this compact quintet. #1 EXPERT has done his best work right here ( 2 fer 5 ), and the runner up from the last came back to get the lion's share of a 100K stake next time out; always like to see the pre-claim pilot come back. #3 POTOMAC is a bit of an in and outer, but is eligible to rebound with a switch to Franco today. 

 

Race  2

1.Our Honor

2.Shook Em Up

3.Seediskid

#1 OUR HONOR has hit the board in all three starts to date and done so under different circumstances in each -- one turn over a fast track, one turn over a wet track, and two turns over a fast track. He has also accomplished such at three different venues -- with three different pilots, and we LOVE that kind of versatility with maidens. Four year old has been gelded since the last ( sorry about that, bud ), and Rice is a juicy 6 fer 10 with freshly claimed Aqueduct maiden claimers at 5-1 or lower ( $9, $11, $7, $5, $3 & $9 ), and four year old finds himself at his lowest level to date. #4 SHOOK EM UP was thoroughly disappointing in the most recent, but goes from a bug to a ( albeit new ) journeyman this afternoon, and we'll give him one more shot. #3 SEEDISKID has been a new animal since switching barns, and we always pay heed ( see Atras ) when someone is tearing it up right out of the box, and this barn is 5:2-2-1 thus far.

 

Race  3

1.Captain Frost

2.Kadens Courage

3.Kosciuszko

#1 CAPTAIN FROST has basically gone all the way in both starts with blinkers, and although the figures earned are a bit on the low side, we feel good about the fact that Linda is a near perfect 6 for 7 with second off the L/O ungraded dirt stock who scored less than 30 days ago & are 9-2 or beneath. The mutuels for that sampling were $10, $3, $11, $7, $4 & $3, and the 3rd pilot in as many outings is the uuber capable Double D. #5 KADENS COURAGE has yet to finish out of the tri, but as he's been majoritively on the fringes, Rudy looks to shake things up a bit by adding eye cups. #3 KOSCIUZKO got the job done when having the hood slapped on in the most recent, but beware of the bounce.  NOTE: AS OF 1:22. DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Manipulate

2.Tri Saint Lorenzo

3.War Tocsin

#7 MANIPULATE did something pretty nifty when last seen -- he was hiked up and stretched out at 20-1 odds, and not only replicated the ITM placing from the bow, but jacked up the Beyer by about 18% or so. Lasix is now part of the mix, and that's of some relevance, as Velazquez is a tight 4:3-0-1 when doing such to those off sabbaticals of 22-72 days ( $5, $7 & $23 ). #2 TRI SAINT LORENZO posted a big fig first time out, but may have outrun his pedigree that day ( 293 Tomlinson ). Leaving beneath with the frigid pilot named. #5 WAR TOCSIN improved nicely from the first start to the next, but recognize that the front wraps were added in the last, so it would behoove you to take a peek pre race.

 

Race  5

1.Beyond Discreet

2.Dancingwthdaffodls

3.Peaches and Spice 

#3 BEYOND DISCREET closed out the triple when a well clear runner up against similar 27 days ago, and gets a tremendous jockey change from Diaz to Manny in this spot. Mildest of selections in a race we really don't have a good read on. #4 DANCINGWTHDAFFODLS ( boy, do I hate typing this name ) was taken by Edmund in a rare claim by that trainer two fortnights back, and grey gal digs this joint, so may prove to be a halfway decent purchase. #6 PEACHES AND SPICE as bad as any for the show dough.  NOTE: As of 5:33 P.M. Saturday, we are flip flopping our top two selections.

 

Race  6 

1.Preston Court 

2.Light the Posse

3.I Saw It All

John Morrison doesn't win often ( 8% ), but when it comes to 2nd time starters at this level who crashed the board 1st out, he's a near perfect 4:3-1-0 with the winners coming back $10 & $4 x 2. In the case of #7 PRESTON COURT, this colt has worked well since, and has some decent dirt dashers in the family tree. #10 LIGHT THE POSSE makes his second start off the bench today and has blinks added. #2 I SAW IT ALL moved forward in a nice manner for teh 1st start w/ Contessa, and was three lengths clear of the show horse that day. Sensible addition.  NOTE: AS OF 11:05, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Hopper Dropper 

2.La Cat Warrior

3.Flatexcel

#5 HOPPER DROPPER looked pretty sharp in defeating a slightly weaker bunch right here on February 22nd, and that win ( a lifetime best ) snapped a 1 for 35 run to start out his career. Ubilio ( 8% on the norm ) is 3 fer 5 with sprinters on the sand who won < 46 days back & are beneath the 9-1 water mark ( $12, $8 & $17 ). Big threat once again. #1 LA CAT WARRIOR got the job done vs. the same type that the above did when last seen a tad over two months back, and did such over this strip. Gullo is another who owns a 3 for 5 stat with pertinent categories ( locally based mid level dirt runners who won 51-75 days back, who are below 11-1 ), and should sit a perfect trip. #7 FLATEXCEL has blinkers re-affixed today after having them left in the tack room for the first start off the purchase four weeks ago, and is now entered at the price claimed with DD returning.  NOTE: AS OF 11;06, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Ready to Escape

2.Candid Desire

3.Morning Breez

#5 READY TO ESCAPE nearly hit the century mark when getting the lion's share of the purse last out, and has yet to finish off the board in any outing. Hard to get past. #9 CANDID DESIRE has blinkers re-added in the first start off the claim by Carlito, and not only is this one 3:1-0-2 in second off the shelf forays, but is an okay 10:1-0-3-2 when starting from teh outermost slot. Best work has come at his trip, and seems like a logical "unders" candidate. #6 MORNING BREEZ has a 2nd & a 3rd in his only two "true" starts off the layoff, and has cashed some minor checks at this trip & over this strip. NOTE: As of 5:35 P.M. Saturday, we are flip flopping our top two selections.

 

Race  9 

1.Charming Cara

2.Tousled

3.First Forever 

#4 CHARMING CARA was extremely lively in closing out the exacta in a nearly identical spot a half'a month ago, and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon. Mitch ( just 8% when tying his boots in the morning ) is 8:3-1-1 with Ozone Park based mdclm. dirt horsies who were 1-2-3 last out & are 10-1 or undah today ( $9, $8 & $6 ). #3 TOUSLED positively flopped in the 2/9 try, but the debut was snazzy & just may turn things around a bit in this spot. #7 FIRST FOREVER gets in light, has some zip, and takes the biggest drop in the biz; watch out, suckahs ! 

 
Aqueduct      ( Current )     61-310    ( $368.60 )      Beatable Favorites: 7-23  ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   128-310 ( 41.3% )

Graded Stakes ( Final ):     0-5          ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites: N/A                      Favorite's Win %:    0-5       ( 0.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2018 Final ) 60-366   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-366  ( 34.2% )  +/-: -29.1% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568       ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-8 (All Final):2061-10077 ($17,281.50) Beatable Favorites : 304-1085( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3698-10180 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2146-10645 ($18,100.70) Beatable Favorites : 319-1153( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3861-10767 ( 35.9% ) +/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.5% takeout


 CoxLA2017