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Just a remide that if you want our selections & analysis for BOTH divisions of the Rebel from Paklawn, merely go back one page.

As we've done on New Year's Eve's & St. Patrick's Day's in the past, we will encourage safe driving this Sunday, by making up to a $10 donation to Old Friends at Cabin Creek for anyone who sends us a photo of a cab/Uber receipt from 4PM to 4AM on Sunday in that person's name. We want y'all to have fun AND be safe AND do it all while helping our retired equines !

AMAZING news for us here. If you loved the annual homage I write about my father every year for SaratogaBets , you'll be happy to know that I was asked to do a reading for "Our American Stories" (1.7 million weekly listeners), and guess what -- here it is !  http://www.ouramericannetwork.org/story?title=My-Parents-Are-Gone-But-Their-Traditions-Aren-t&fbclid=IwAR0nxu9wzv3sHr3853i6prcuIYN43GK6J-1YaDzmy7ft7oIE2CD5AbDiCjU

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #7 Canarsie Girl


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 3/16

 

Race  1

1.Can'tweallgetalong

2.American Lincoln

3.Unsullied 

#3 CAN'TWEALLGETALONG has broken the hearts of backers in the last two when losing both by just a neck, but let's be forgiving, as he lit up the tote board to the tune of $33 in the outing just prior to that. Colt has done okay here, and Cancel has fashioned himself a fine winter meeting. Slight edge. #2 AMERICAN LINCOLN is an extremely steady sort who finds himself at his lowest level to date, and while this one has dropped in class over the last troika, take note that the Beyers have remained the same. Be careful here. #6 UNSULLIED was trounced when hiked way up in class last out, but the two forays before that were fin and dandy, and Double D sticks around. 

 

Race  2

1.Weekend Madness

2.Enjoyitwhilewecan

3.Distorted News

We are positively in love with #5 WEEKEND MADNESS here. Despite not being particularly well bred for the gramma ( we have her at 11.3% better bred for the dirt -- don't ask ), Clement had her down at Payson Park working over the stuff before posting two solid numeros in losing by less than five. He gave her one more breeze on the green so you know she has plenty of bottom, and is now smartly shipped northward for an easy spot to break the maiden. If she improves with today's surface transition, should positively demolish these. Play of the month. The only one we'll be using as an exacta saver will be the #6 ENJOYITWHILEWECAN, and that's because of the gaudy 394 Tomlinson figure for today's 2nd time on a fast track, and a SENSATIONAL best of 143 bullet move a week ago, which was a tick quicker than the stakes winner Sower that day. #1 DISTORTED NEWS begins his professional life today and was bought at auction for 2X the stud fee.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 CANARSIE GIRL doesn't make our first draft, so why would we accept favoritism?

 

Race  3

1.Startwithsilver

2.Sounds Delicious

3.Yorkiepoo Princess

It's the "Linda Rice Stakes" on tap here, as she has 2/3rd's of the six pack signed on, and we like two of them to hit the board. #5 STARTWITHSILVER is a whopping 4 for 6 locally ( 2 fer 14 otherwise ) and has also won two of three "second off the L/O" tries. Oh yeah,the ol' grey mare is 3-4 w/Junior. Many things to like. #4 SOUNDS DELICIOUS has some zip and loves this trip ( 4 of 6 ). Could go all the way with Franco taking over. #3 YORKIEPOO PRINCESS closes out the tri.

 

Race  4 

1.Tequila Sunday

2.First Dawn 

3.Moscows Got Talent

Just an awful race here... #3 TEQUILA SUNDAY ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) has been transferred over to the barn of Bobby Klesaris since the last, and this looks like a good spot for the former agent to get his first win since re-hanging out his shingle as trainer. Hungry jock gets the assignment, and five year old has done allright @ this trip. Meeeeeeeeeekest of choices. #5 FIRST DAWN understandably regressed in the first go round against winners, but could rebound a bit vs. these. #2 MOSCOWS GOT TALENT ( another one who is also scheduled to run on Friday ) is third off the shelf today and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman.  NOTE: AS OF 11:45, DUE TO A KEY SCRATCH WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 2-7-1.

 

Race  5

1.Heartbustingirl

2.Miss Flambe

3.Princessof Philmar

We won't be going any deeper than the top two for all our rolling action...  #5 HEARTBUSTINGIRL has posted three solid figaros in as many starts to date ( having hit the board in each ), and Pletcher is a poyfect 7 for 9 with third off the break maiden claiming dirt dashers who crashed the party last time out & are 9-2 or lower today ( with a sub category of 3-3 in dirt events ). #8 MISS FLAMBE hasn't been seen since just before Christmas, but owns a couple of nice adjusted #'s, and note that this is her first spin at this level over a glib surface. #3 PRINCESSOF PHILMAR may improve second time out for an underrated conditioner. 

 

Race  6 

1.Buss the Bell 

2.Rockin Jo

3.Support Our Cause 

#5 BUS THE BELL is approximately a 15% better runner on a fast track than a wet one, so right off the bat, you can feel free to upgrade the last accordingly. Gelding is just 1 for 29, but the 16:1-1-3 local mark is better than the 13:0-0-0 ledger at other venues, so that's a positive. And finally, Persaud ( just 6% day to day ) is a whopping 10 for 49 ( 20.4% ) with locally based mid level dirt dashers who were 1-2-3 < 43 days ago below the 21-1 water mark ( with the winners ranging between $7 & $43 ). #4 ROCKIN JO was a lively runner up in this spot two fortnights ago, and 12% Schettino is 3 fer 13 with those fitting this criteria off absences of 6-50 days ( $12, $4 & $8 ). #3 SUPPORT OUR CAUSE is a bit of an in and outer but comes in off a nice maiden win and may land a share. 

 

Race  7

1.Thesis

2.Who's Driving

3.Trance

Words could not describe how game #1 THESIS was when winning off the bench in a nearly identical spot last time out, so apparently, blinkers were the trick that day. Duggan must have had this race circled in the condition book, as there have only been a couple of maintainable breezes since the score. Mild choice in a toughie. #3 WHO'S DRIVING has put forth good efforts in each & every start thus far, and goes from open company to state breds this afternoon. #7 TRANCE has won both times he's been entered at 40K or less, and they were both over this course as well.  

 

Race  8 

1.Rally Cap

2.Saratoga Promise

3.Show Prince

#8 RALLY CAP has improved with each and every start, draws ideally, and gets the best jockey on the grounds. Sensible selection. The money came pouring in on the #5 SARATOGA PROMISE in the career starter, and it told the tale as he got the job done at 6-5. Facing winners second time out is never an easy proposition, but we're assuaged by the fact that Barrow is a tidy 2-7 with second timers on the sand who won at first asking ( 50 days or less ) w/the winners returning $8 & $17. #3 SHOW PRINCE outran his odds when completing the superfecta in the stakes try, and was given a bit of a respite by Sciacca afterwards. Note the bullet breeze on 2/12.   

 

Race  9 

1.Change of Venue

2.Infield Is In

3.Latin Love Bug

We'll blast off with the ollll' 3-2-1 triple in today's nitecap. #3 CHANGE OF VENUE came home solidly to finish a nicely clear runner up versus this type on February 22nd, and despite having been eased in two of his last four, we'll give him a tepid nod. #2 INFIELD IS IN disappointed in the last, but maybe the wet stuff just ain't his bag, baby ( 0-4 ). Picks up an improving rider and may make amends. #1 LATIN LOVE BUG has partaken in the super in 10 of 11 and should be able to save enough ground to make an impression late in the game. 

  


Aqueduct      ( Current )     60-301    ( $360.90 )     Beatable Favorites: 7-22  ( 31.8 % )   Favorites Win %:   123-301 ( 42.9% )( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Final ):     0-3          ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites: N/A                    Favorite's Win %:    0-3       ( 0.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2018 Final ) 60-366   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-366  ( 34.2% )  +/-: -29.1% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568       ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-8 (All Final):2061-10077 ($17,281.50) Beatable Favorites : 304-1085( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3698-10180 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2146-10645 ($18,100.70) Beatable Favorites : 319-1153( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3861-10767 ( 35.9% ) +/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.5% takeout


 CoxLA2017