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Just one $8 winner yesterday ( on a solid formulator angle ), but we did have a second choice win to the tune of $162, which was part of a $1,307 rolling double for us.

With the NHC Championship less than a month away ( $3 million total prize money ), I am once again proud to announce that I will be donating 15% of any profits to 3 great charities --  Old Friends at Cabin Creek http://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/ ( benefiting retired horses ), Mercy Ships https://www.mercyships.org/ ( hospital ships that provide free lifesaving surgeries for people where medical care is nearly non-existent )  & Pets for Patriots petsforpatriots.org   ( Helping veterans find a new pet friend while giving the most overlooked shelter pets hope and a home ). Feel free to match in whole or part !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #6 Forecaster


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Aqueduct - 1/13

 

Race  1

1.American Mandate

2.Deft

3.Loverboy Lou

#3 AMERICAN MANDATE destroys these. #4 DEFT didn't show much in the bow, but has worked well since and gets in light while still eschewing the wonder drug. #2 LOVERBOY LOU flopped in the most recent, but the rail in the goo is never an easy thing to do, and fella displayed some fair zip in the lone try over a glib surface. Hernandez returns, which can be taken as a positive.

 

Race  2

1.Tusk

2.Weather Wiz

3.Stan the Man

We have three small, but honest enough trainer stats in the second half of the early Daily Double, so let's get right to 'em.  #2 TUSK: Handal owns a 3;2-0-1 mark when going green to brown with his routers at 12-1 or less ( $11 & $7 ). This one has a win & a placing from as many start when making this surface switch, and rates a slight edge. #6 WEATHER WIZ: ( who owns a tally & a runner up finish when coming from off the bench ) is backed by a 2 for 4 statistic which has Double J at just that with optional dirt stayers off sabbaticals of 47-95 days at 4-1 or undah. #1 STAN THE MAN struck out in the Cigar Mile, but has done good things over this strip, and Terranova ( off to a fine start at this stand ) is 8:4-1-2-1 with dirt routers at 2-1 or lower.

 

Race  3

1.Our American Star

2.Shamrock Kid

3.Shortlist

#3 OUR AMERICAN STAR may have finished last in his last, but fella was 50-1 that day in his first try against winners, and the figure earned was in fact his best yet over a wet surface. If you were to prorate to his best numero on a fast track, then what you have is a # that matches or supersedes others signed on. We like the apprentice to journeyman angle as well. #6 SHAMROCK KID is the clear speed of this deal, exits a race where 2 of 3 returnees came back to win next out ( from two different heats ), and draws the outside for the first time. Grab him by the tail to get the glory. #2 SHORTLIST is as good as any for the show dough.

 

Race  4 

1.Wisecrack

2.Center City

3.Rouxhere

We won't be going any deeper than these three for all our rolling action. #2 WISECRACK bested half the field at 40-1 when finishing 4th directly behind a next out winner in the most recent, and the lifetime best Beyer came over a fast track ( and vs. tougher foes as well ). Sensible selection. #5 CENTER CITY will take them as far as he can for as long as he can. Grab the Pepto for that last eigth of a mile, tho. #3 ROUXHERE was a game runner up in the first try off a break, but the front wraps were added for that return, so caveat emptor.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 FORECASTER doesn't make our first draft, so why would we take 8 to 5 ?

 

Race  5

1.Ten Twenty Nine

2.All Clear

3.Unsullied

#2 TEN TWENTY NINE has done his best work at this dist. ( 8:1-5-1 ) and owns a runner up finish in the lone "second off the L/O" try. Meeeeeeeekest of selections in a race that leaves a lot to be desired. #9 ALL CLEAR has been given some time to recover by Sciacca off the claim/poor effort, and if you can be forgiving of that flopola, then obviously this one deserves another shot to get back to the penultimate outing. #7 UNSULLIED is a steady if not unspectacular sort who finds himself at his lowest level to date. Lone win came beneath today's pilot.

 

Race  6 

1.Habitue

2.Binary

3.Mental Model

#5 HABITUE is a $110,000 bred animal who went for nearly double that at auction, and begins his professional working life with some steadily improving workouts on the ledger. Bobby Ribaudo ( an 11% conditioner on the norm ) is a lively 3 for 8 with maiden special weight first time starters on the sand ( 0-7 on the sod ) between the odds of 6-1 & 18-1. The winners came back $18, $19 & $19, and this one was dropped by a dam who was 3 for 14 in dirt dashes ( 93K ) and is a half to a runner who won his only dirt sprint ( 33G ). #2 BINARY was last seen in a race where five comebackers have gone 2-1-0 next time out ( from a quartet of starts ) with an avg. Beyer improvement of 11.6 pts. #8 MENTAL MODEL owns a 391 Tomlinson for today's trip, draws well, and has a couple of nice morning moves for today's overture.

 

Race  7

1.Just Right

2.Funny Guy

3.Thorny Tale

#9 JUST RIGHT has been a part of the exacta in 4 of 6 ( with the lone blemishes being the debut and pre layoff outing ) and sheds six pounds to an all time low weight of 118 lbs. today. Expecting a soild ride from Stone today to try and get in Pletcher's barn a bit more often. #3 FUNNY GUY ( "Like a clown? Like I'm here to amuse you?" ) obviously found the blinkers...or the layoff...or the wet track to his liking last time out, procuring the diploma a few days before Christmas. Sometimes when the light bulb goes on in the noggin' it can stay on for a while, but on the other hand ( "There's a flip side to that coin"--- 'Heat' ), when sudden improvement comes in conjunction with a change of sorts, there can be a regression next time out, as you can't "shock the senses" more than once in that regards. Toss in because of the odds. #6 THORNY TALE got the job done in the lone start over a fast surface and that's reason enough to include.  NOTE: AS OF 11:49, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  8 

1.Bigsouljoel

2.Thefinalcrazydude

3.La Cat Warrior

#9 BIGSOULJOEL split a tougher field at 26-1 in the comebacker and now finds himself at his lowest level thus far for Levine, The aforementioned 14% trainer is 2 for 8 with locally based 2nd off the break mid level dirt stock > 5-1 & < 25-1 ( $15 & $25 ). We would love to see 15-1 here, but we don't think it's happening. #2 THEFINALCRAZYDUDE ain't a fan of the wet stuff, so you can draw a line through the 1/6 foray, but the quartet of dirt tries prior to that were A-okay, and Brown is on a snazzy 4 for 9 run with his sand sprinters off breaks of less than a month, and look at these prices -- $14, $10, $82 & $28 !! Big shot. #4 LA CAT WARRIOR will be led over by a 17% hombre who doubles that rate ( 5-15 ) with second off the shelf runners of this ilk between even money & 3-1 ( positive return on investment ). Lots of layoff lines, tho, so don't go crazy.

 


Aqueduct      ( Current )     6-56     ( $32.80 )     Beatable Favorite       3-6  ( 50.0 % )  Favorites Win %:    20-56  ( 35.7% ) ( As of Sunday morning )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2018 Final ) 60-366   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-366  ( 34.2% )  +/-: -29.1% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568       ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-8 (All Final):2061-10077 ($17,281.50) Beatable Favorites : 304-1085( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3698-10180 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2146-10645 ($18,100.70) Beatable Favorites : 319-1153( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3861-10767 ( 35.9% ) +/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.5% takeout


 CoxLA2017