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Just one chalky winner yesterday on a day filled with the stuff.

With the NHC Championship less than a month away ( $3 million total prize money ), I am once again proud to announce that I will be donating 15% of any profits to 3 great charities --  Old Friends at Cabin Creek http://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/ ( benefiting retired horses ), Mercy Ships https://www.mercyships.org/ ( hospital ships that provide free lifesaving surgeries for people where medical care is nearly non-existent )  & Pets for Patriots petsforpatriots.org   ( Helping veterans find a new pet friend while giving the most overlooked shelter pets hope and a home ). Feel free to match in whole or part !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Aqueduct - 1/12

 

Race  1

1.Weekend Forecast

2.Vinda Machine

3.Lady Berg

#3 WEEKEND FORECAST flashed some early hoof when having a hood and Lasix in the most recent, and is third off the layoff today, which is extremely relevant. Over the last 1,826 days, Levine is a fat 7:5-1-1 with 3rd off the L/O maiden claiming dirt dashers, and owns a $6.07 ROI in that regards. ( Sub category of 1 for 1 for those who missed the board in their most recent. ) #1 VINDA MACHINE showed zilch in the turf bow, but takes the biggest drop in the game this afternoon, and Weaver is a dreamy 3 for 5 when doing that while making this surface switch to his 2nd time starters  ( $6, $4 & $7 ); big jockey change in play. #7 LADY BERG rallied nicely after a troubled start in the career opener and most definitely deserves another shot.

 

Race  2

1.Archumybaby

2.Overnegotiate

3.Milaya

#7 ARCHUMYBABY has hit the board in 13 of 15, and new ( former ) conditioner is an otherworldly 19:10-2-1 with first off the claim mid level dirt sprinters off breaks of 20-46 days ( 5-1 or less ). Jockey not setting the world ablaze, but we can't help but lean this way. #3 OVERNEGOTIATE finds herself at her lowest level to date and deserves to be left in the mix. #2 MILAYA hasn't seen the scene in more than a half'a year, but has done okay here and may spice things up underneath. 

 

Race  3

1.Dark N Cloudy

2.American Power

3.Missile Bomb

#5 DARK N CLOUDY has improved with each and every start, and that includes a well clear runner up finish in a race where three returnees came back to amass a 1-0-1 mark, while improving their speed figures by an average of nine points. The front wraps did in fact go on in the latest, so take a peek in the paddock. #2 AMERICAN POWER got the job done in his only "true" 3rd off the L/O try and has hit the board in both local forays. #7 MISSILE BOMB simply had an astounding 2018 ( 13:7-5-0 ) and positively loves the joint ( 6:3-3-0 ) as well as this tricky distance ( 7:6-0-1 ). Toss in the 5:3-2-0 mark when starting from the outside, and you have a "must" include on all your tickets. 

 

Race  4 

1.I Took a Shot

2.Warren's Vengeance

3.Midnitesalright

We have three decent Formulator stats in play here, so let's get right to 'em in no frills fashion. #8 I TOOK A SHOT: Brown, 10% day to day, more than doubles that rate ( 4-18 ) with second time starters on this circuit at this level who missed the board in the opener & are between 15-1 & 75-1 ( 15 days or more ). The winners came back $36, $46, $60 & $147 for a whopping ROI !! #3 WARREN'S VENGEANCE: 12% shotcaller is 2-8 with firsters at this level @ 40-1 or undah ( $11 & $70 ). #5 MIDNITESALRIGHT: Servis is a near perfect 4 for 5 with 2nd off the break sprinters taking this kind of drop at 2-1 or less ( 3-3 on the sand ). 

 

Race  5

1.Proximate to Power

2.Ultimateenticement

3.Javelin

#5 PROXIMATE TO POWER was perfectly spotted after staying in jail for the first off the claim start by Cox, and rallied from out of the clouds to win going away 23 days ago. Connections are essentially playing with house money here, so they drop this runner ( who has yet to regress in any outing ) down in class once again, which is a smart move, because a win would mean open claimers next time out, and that's a whole different ball game. #6 ULTIMATEENTICEMENT is 1 for 2 in second off the break tries, and said score came over this oval. Not hopeless. #4 JAVELIN nearly went all the way in the first start off an elongated break, and got the job done in his only 2nd off the shelf try. Extremely logical.

 

Race  6 

1.Go Big Or Go Home

2.Regalian

3.Too Fast to Pass

#4 GO BIG OR GO HOME has won his last two when available for purchase and owns a nice mark at this trip/over this strip. #6 REGALIAN had a very awkward sojourn in last, but still got up in time beneath the bug, and this but a mere hike today so should be left in the hopper. From a small sampling, Morley is 3 for 7 with runners of this ilk who scored less than 44 days ago ( 7-1 or lower ). #7 TOO FAST TO PASS is quite the ol' warhorse at the age of nine ( 76th start today ) and is still thought highly enough to have been purchased in three of his last five. Fella has a penchant for cashing checks, so we'll toss beneath.

 

Race  7

1.Vincento

2.Westerdale

3.Stoney Bennett

#2 VINCENTO didn't show much in the most recent, but in all fairness, did have choppy start that day. Gelding went back to back just before that, and Rudy Rod is a snazzy 4 for 7 when cutting back his allowance dirt runners who missed the board < 40 days ago & are 30-1 or lower. There's a positive ROI in that regards, and gelding has done his best work at this dx. ( 4-10 ). 15-1 appears to be a tremendous overly here, and we'll make this our play of the day. #5 WESTERDALE split the field in the comebacker on 12/7, and Morley owns a 3 for 6 mark with second off the L/O runners fitting this criteria who were OTB last time out ( $7, $11 & $12 ). #11 STONEY BENNETT has been a completely different runner since entering the Rice barn and completed the exacta in his lone 2nd off the shelf engagement.

 

Race  8 

1.Gold for the King 

2.Syndergaard

3.Royal Asset

#2 GOLD FOR THE KING has big figs, an affinity for this joint, and Baker ( from a small survey ) is 3 for 5 with locally based ungraded dirt dashers who were in the money less than 40 days back & are 5-2 or below today. #7 SYNDERGAARD was all out to get up by a honker against optional foes in most recent, and finished second in his only other "2nd off the hiatus" go round. #5 ROYAL ASSET has crashed the fiesta in five straight & we see no reason to leave out of the mix here.

 

Race  9 

1.Blue Skies Forever

2.Holycowits Patrick

3.Contessa Entry

#6 BLUE SKIES FOREVER hung up a career best ( of 3 ) wet track numbers last out, and if you prorate that to his best dirt dash over a glib surface, what you get is an adjusted 60.9 ( and at a higher level to boot ). That number would obliterate this field, and Ferraro ( 8% on the norm ) has won 2 of 11 with Ozone Park sand dashers at this level who were off the board less than a month ago & are 24-1 or under ( $14 & 39 ). #3 HOLYCOWITS PATRICK bested half the field at 14-1 last time out, and did such despite fanning six wide turning for home. Goes 2X to 1X today. #1 CROSS MULTIPLY & #1A THERESA'S BOY both comprise a decent entry from the Contessa barn.

 


Aqueduct      ( Current )     5-47     ( $25.30 )     Beatable Favorite       3-6  ( 50.0 % )  Favorites Win %:    19-47  ( 38.5% ) ( As of Saturday morning ) 

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Aqu Fall/Winter '( Final )   56-308   ( $498.60 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )  Favorites Win %: 111-316 ( 34.2% )

Belmont            ( Final )   51-320   ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:127-320  ( 40.0% )

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  15-83   ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-7   ( 57.1% )     Favorites Win %: 36-83     ( 43.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2018 Final ) 60-366   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-366  ( 34.2% )  +/-: -29.1% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568       ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-8 (All Final):2061-10077 ($17,281.50) Beatable Favorites : 304-1085( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3698-10180 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2146-10645 ($18,100.70) Beatable Favorites : 319-1153( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3861-10767 ( 35.9% ) +/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.5% takeout


 CoxLA2017