SiteLock

KevinCoxItem

 

We only got five races in yesterday due to high winds. 

With the NHC Championship less than a month away ( $3 million total prize money ), I am once again proud to announce that I will be donating 15% of any profits to 3 great charities --  Old Friends at Cabin Creek http://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/ ( benefiting retired horses ), Mercy Ships https://www.mercyships.org/ ( hospital ships that provide free lifesaving surgeries for people where medical care is nearly non-existent )  & Pets for Patriots petsforpatriots.org   ( Helping veterans find a new pet friend while giving the most overlooked shelter pets hope and a home ). Feel free to match in whole or part !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #5 Stay Fond


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 1/11

 

Race  1

1.Taking Aim

2.Lady Hester

3.War of the States

#4 TAKING AIM has hit the board in all three starts to date, and although the last number came back a bit on the low side, gal was fanned six wide in that four horse field ( NURSE !! ) by Ortiz. Fourth different pilot in as many outings is Stone, and Rice owns a decent 3 for 8 mark with runners of this ilk who crashed the party 29-57 days ago & are 9-1 or lower ( $5 & $8 x 2 ). Slight edge. #6 LADY HESTER has done some fine work since being transferred over to the Duggan barn and draws well for today's second off the L/O try. #5 WAR OF THE STATES has the hood added today and also sheds some serious poundage after three honest tries. Mare catches a fast track for just the second time.

 

Race  2

1.Purchasing Power

2.Inalienable Rights

3.Change of Venue

#1 PURCHASING POWER has been beset by three layoff lines within his last four calls to the post, so it's no wonder that Klaravich put this one up for sale after the most recent. This one will take a pounding at the windows, but we're assuaged by the fact that Brown ( from a small sampling ) is 4:3-1-0 with locally based mid level dirt dashers off L/O's of 39-77 days ( positive ROI ). Mild selection. #6 INALIENABLE RIGHTS is another with a stop and start resume', but Hennig makes this one available for purchase for the first time, and he's won with two of five such starters within these parameters ( $12 & $5 ). Note that the lone score came in the only start when breaking from the outside. #2 CHANGE OF VENUE is entered at an all time low this afternoon & has worked well since the last. 

 

Race  3

1.True Prosperity

2.Harley Q

3.Alvernia

#3 TRUE PROSPERITY begins her working life today, and although the works are a mite sporadic, we like the 377 Tomlinson figure for the trip, as well as the fact that mommy was 4 for 28 at this dx. ( 128K ). The sire was also a goodie, and once again, we have a tepid nod. #2 HARLEY Q by no means disgraced herself when a tad overmatched in the Toga stakes, and we always like when a pre layoff pilot returns. Trainer who wins at just 5% of the time, wins at a 13% rate ( 4-30 ) with maiden special weight dirt sprinters at 12-1 or lower ( $15, 18, $8 & $6 ). Kerry Meitivier isn't known for his prowess with firsters, and although the #5 ALVERNIA is the first foal out of a dam with one career start, there are a couple of nice works on the tab, and the 429 Tommy jumps off the page; jock came in with a big bomb on Sunday.  NOTE: AS OF 11:50, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Harkness

2.Daria's Angel

3.Mia Bella Rossa

#3 HARKNESS is a nibbler by rote ( 15:1-7-1 ), but has done decent work on this course, and 15% Mott is a saucy 5 fer 9 with 2md off the shelf optional sprinters on the sand who hit the board in last ( 10-1 or lower ). The winners came back $11, $8 x 2 & $4 x 2, but be careful here. #2 DARIA'S ANGEL has the type of "declining" record at the distance which we love so much ( 7:4-2-1 ) as it shows she has a nose for the line, and shoots for the hat trick under new trainer Atras. #7 MIA BELLA ROSSA bested what we would consider a slightly tougher bunch in the most recent, running up her lifetime ledger to 24:7-4-2, and that includes a 2 for 3 mark when being loaded in the outside gate. Tough to eliminate. ( AS OF 11:52 ) BEATABLE FAVORITE/3RD CHOICE: We're not fond of #5 STAY FOND, as Rice is not nice with 3rd off the layoff optional dirt runners, as she's a woeful 1 fer 33 in that department.

 

Race  5

1.Moon Heist

2.Countable

3.Lady Macho

We have three solid DRF Formulator stats in play for today's 5th, so let's get to 'em in no frills fashion.   #1 MOON HEIST: Syneffias ( 18% on the norm ) is 3 for 7 with filly firsters at this level, and the payouts are juicy enough ( $30, $7 & $11 ). Penn National rider ships in for the assignment. #5 COUNTABLE: Linda owns a crisp 9:4-3-0 ledger with locally based second time maiden special weight dirt stock who were ITM less than 23 days ago. Miss outran her odds in the debut and should be even better over a glib surface. #3 LADY MACHO: Levine ( from a tiny survey ) is 2 for 6 with 3 year old Aqueduct first time starters in the mdspwt. ranks ( $22 & $13 ). 384 Tomlinson fig. is strong.  NOTE: AS OF 11:54, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Gypsum Johnny

2.Bavaro

3.Rectify

These three and no more for all our rolling action in a race with two full brothers ( the #'s 1 & 3 ) who face for just the second time. #4 GYPSYUM JOHNNY has not finished in the top half of the field in six straight ( uh oh ), but gelding is 4:3-0-1 when entered, and gelding has been a part of the tri in all three "third off the break" attempts. #5 BAVARO has been a different animal since leaving the Sciacca barn a year and a half ago, ( having won 5 of 11 ) and will be a deserving favorite tackling this soft bunch. #8 RECTIFY is quite the in and outer, but has done nice work here & is 1 for 4 off "true" layoffs.

 

Race  7

1.Mystical Song

2.Ready to Escape

3.Dark Ops

#10 MYSTICAL SONG has been freshened up since the decent placing back in early November, and while this one has had some breaks in the action along the way, the resume' is honest enough and there's a nice recent breeze a week ago. Slight edge in yet another wide open affair. #2 READY TO ESCAPE burst through in a big way when procuring the sheepskin about a month ago, and the only other time he had a 2nd off the L/O try, he replicated the speed figure from the prior outing, so with that being said... #11 DARK OPS has tossed in clunkers in three of his last four, but blinks are now in the mix, and we'll give this one another shot.

 

Race  8 

1.Fiveinthemorning

2.Benina

3.Princess Alana

#10 FIVEINTHEMORNING came along nicely to get the place $ in a nearly identical spot on 12/22, and Kimmel ( who bats a respectable 13% day to day ) is a snappy 4 for 7 with maiden claiming dirt runners at The Big A who were 1-2-3 last out & are 10-1 or undah. The mutuels for that sampling were $8, $6, $4 & $21, and we're hoping for a strong performance on a fast track. #2 BENINA undergoes a gamut of changes for today's followup outing: Apprentice to journeyman, a substantial drop in class, first time hood AND first time wonder drug. Would only need to find one of those to her liking in order to make an impression here. #7 PRINCESS ALANA was a guts and well clear runner up at boxcar odds in the most recent, and you still may get a decent offering in this spot.

 


Aqueduct      ( Current )     4-39     ( $18.30 )     Beatable Favorite       3-5  ( 60.0 % ) Favorites Win %:    15-39  ( 38.5% ) ( As of Friday morning )

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Aqu Fall/Winter '( Final )   56-308   ( $498.60 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )  Favorites Win %: 111-316 ( 34.2% )

Belmont            ( Final )   51-320   ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:127-320  ( 40.0% )

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  15-83   ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-7   ( 57.1% )     Favorites Win %: 36-83     ( 43.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2018 Final ) 60-366   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-366  ( 34.2% )  +/-: -29.1% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568       ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-8 (All Final):2061-10077 ($17,281.50) Beatable Favorites : 304-1085( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3698-10180 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2146-10645 ($18,100.70) Beatable Favorites : 319-1153( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3861-10767 ( 35.9% ) +/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.5% takeout


 CoxLA2017