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With the NHC Championship less than a month away ( $3 million total prize money ), I am once again proud to announce that I will be donating 15% of any profits to 3 great charities --  Old Friends at Cabin Creek http://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/ ( benefiting retired horses ), Mercy Ships https://www.mercyships.org/ ( hospital ships that provide free lifesaving surgeries for people where medical care is nearly non-existent )  & Pets for Patriots petsforpatriots.org   ( Helping veterans find a new pet friend while giving the most overlooked shelter pets hope and a home ). Feel free to match in whole or part !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #6 Getyourmindright  Race 5 - #4 Science Fiction


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 1/10

 

Race  1

1.New Year's Wish  

2.She'sakittykat

3.My Girl Annie

#2 NEW YEAR'S WISH earned a big check for a paid workout in last, and after that easy score, Rice smartly keeps this one protected against the claim this afternoon. Aforementioned barn is 3 fer 8 with third off the shelf allowance dirt dashers who won their last ( $11, $19 & $11 ), and let's face it...there ain't much here. #1 SHE'SAKITTYKAT has been a popular item at the claim box of late ( snagged in 3 of the last 5 ), and with good reason, too, as this one shoots for the hat trick today. Mare is 3 for 5 here...0-13 over other strips...and do you really need more than that? #4 MY GIRL ANNIE is another who excels over a particular condition ( 2-6 @ the trip ) compared to other deals ( 0-11 ). 

 

Race  2

1.Scrutinize

2.Battle of Saratoga

3.Golconda

#1 SCRUTINIZE is 3rd off the bench today and drops from open company into the land of state breds, but has improved over his last quartet and draws snugly. #3 BATTLE OF SARATOGA hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but Motion ( who recently had a suspension upheld in Kentucky ) owns a tidy 6:3-1-1 mark with maiden special weight dirt sprinters off hibernations of 173-346 days ( $19, $5 & $4 ). We'll leve beneath because of the abysmal 3 for 78 ledger on this circuit since late June. #5 GOLCONDA rounds out the tri.

 

Race  3

1.Support Our Cause

2.Shiloh Lane 

3.Pragmatist

#4 SUPPORT OUR CAUSE has shown improved speed since transitioning to the Toscano barn in mid October ( never havining missed a superfecta in five tries ) and the aforementioned shotcaller is s snappy 3 for 4 with those fitting this criteria, and the winners paid a healthy $12, $13 & $14. #3 SHILOH LANE closed out the tri in this race on Christmas Eve Eve, and runner is second off a "true" layoff for the first time...there may still be some value here. #6 PRAGMATIST gets Franco in the irons despite a miserable last sojourn. That has to be worth something, no?

 

Race  4 

1.Starry Rose

2.Master Distiller

3.Step to the Bank

#5 STARRY ROSE is starting things out a tad late, ( as this one will be four in April ) but owns a hefty 392 Tomlinson figure for the trip, and some of the breezes are showing that there's good work being done. Mott has split his string nicely, as he's on a nice streak with his grass runners down south, and there's an 8 for 12 exacta rate w/dirt runners in Ozone Park of late. #4 MASTER DISTILLER has been runner up in both starts to date, and who are we to rock that boat? #7 STEP TO THE BANK was as green as grass when debuting on such back in June, and bloodlines say that there is some room for improvement with today's surface switch.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 GETYOURMINDRIGHT ( a line from 'Cool Hand Luke' ) fills the bill, as barn is 0-14 with mdspwt. dirt stock who are four years old and older.  NOTE: AS OF 12:01, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Party in the Sand

2.Alley to Calvary

3.Forever Daisy

#5 PARTY IN THE SAND improved over her first quartet, regressed, than improved over the next four for Charlie Baker. Aforementioned shotcaller is a tidy 3 for 6 when hiking up his mid level dirt dashers 50% or more ( ITM < 50 days ago ). The winners came back $7, $9 & $9, and we like the New Year's Eve work since the last. #6 ALLEY TO CALVARY was a solid third in the lone start off the shelf at 60-1, and pre-claim pilot returns, which we always dig. We like that there's no scary drop for runner who is long since out of jail. #3 FOREVER DAISY's lone score came over this oval & is as good as any for the show bread.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 SCIENCE FICTION, as Atras is 0-5 when being handed a new runner and spotting them on the dirt at this level.

 

Race  6 

1.Two Hot Betty

2.Malarkey

3.Courageous Queen

#6 TWO HOT BETTY went from zero to hero in the most recent and is confidently hiked up in class by 'Miah today. Him and Junior are in a tear of late when going short on the sand at 20-1 or less, as they're 18:10-2-2 in that regards, and just look at these payouts: $22, $23, $40, $10, $5, $23, $3, $16 & $9 ! #2 MALARKEY was full of himself in the most recent, besting slightly weaker in the slop at 5-2. Five returnees from that day returned to go 5:2-0-0-2 in their followup engagements ( from three different outings ), and this one seems to like the local seagulls. #1 COURAGEOUS QUEEN finds herself at an all time low today and has scored off the shelf while owning a placing in the lone try when breaking from the pine. Will take some beating at the windows.

 

Race  7

1.Peter's Project

2.Calculated Risker

3.Broadway Bay

We have absolutely zero read on this race, so exercise caution. #1 PETER'S PROJECT sure is an old warhorse, ain't he ? Nine year old gelding makes his 45th start this afternoon ( having won 17 of them ) and shoots for the grand salami here after a 2+ month respite. Bay chap is 6:2-2-0 off the bench in 2X events, and as this one has always gotten the winter off, it's interesting that the new conditioner keeps him in training. #2 CALCULATED RISKER drops in class today & is third off the layoff after showing a tad of early hoof behind a next out winner in last. #4 BROADWAY BAY owns a win over the strip and has a win & two showings in his last troika when entered for a tag.

 

Race  8 

1.Wall Street Annie

2.Pendolino

3.Kathy's Cause

#6 WALL STREET ANNIE begins her professional working life today, and although the worktab doesn't quite get the pulse racing, this one went for 4X the stud fee at auction, and is facing a fairly weak allotment for the overture. This is the first foal out of a dam who was a subpar sprinter on the brown stuff, but the sire was 8:2-2-2 at this deal, including a G2 tally. 13% trainer & 12% pilot click at a 36% rate ( 9 for 25 ) with those going short on the dirt at 15-1 or undah, and the prices were lovely as well ( $7, $8, $6, $24, $4, $17, $6, $28 & $14 ). There's a sub category of 9:4-2-2 w/maidens, and we hope Stone has recovered from his Sunday spill for this. #1A PENDOLINO has improved with each start ( both from a Beyer AND a placing standpoint ) and MUST be included. #9 KATHY'S CAUSE totes the lightest impost of her career and catches a fast track for just the second time.  NOTE: AS OF 12:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 


Aqueduct      ( Current )     3-34     ( $14.50 )     Beatable Favorite       2-3  ( 66.7 % ) Favorites Win %:    12-34  ( 35.3% ) 

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Aqu Fall/Winter '( Final )  56-308   ( $498.60 )     Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )  Favorites Win %: 111-316 ( 34.2% )

Belmont            ( Final )   51-320   ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:127-320  ( 40.0% )

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  15-83   ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-7   ( 57.1% )     Favorites Win %: 36-83     ( 43.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2018 Final ) 60-366   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-366  ( 34.2% )  +/-: -29.1% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568       ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-8 (All Final):2061-10077 ($17,281.50) Beatable Favorites : 304-1085( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3698-10180 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2146-10645 ($18,100.70) Beatable Favorites : 319-1153( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3861-10767 ( 35.9% ) +/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.5% takeout


 CoxLA2017